Center Ice › Forums › CHICAGO › Chicago Blackhawks › Misconceptions of Stan Bowman – Part 2
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February 9, 2018 at 9:00 am #4730Jeff OsbornKeymaster
In part one of this series, I examined the forwards that Blackhawks General Manager Stan Bowman had drafted both before he took over as GM and while o
[To continue reading full article, click here: Misconceptions of Stan Bowman – Part 2]February 9, 2018 at 9:06 am #4734Chico MakiParticipantLet the house cleaning begin.
Starting with Stan Bowman.
February 9, 2018 at 9:13 am #4735AnonymousInactiveBowman not only had drafted poorly, but his contracts of Bickell, Toews, Seabrook, Kruger, Anisimov speak to his incompetence and arrogance. Losing Johns, Danault, and Teräväinen for nothing seals the deal
February 9, 2018 at 9:14 am #4736AnonymousInactivePretty ugly.
Free agent signings have lessened the blow, but point taken. What’s the picture look like with Snuggerud?
February 9, 2018 at 9:31 am #4737AnonymousInactive#BlackHawk Legend Kent Simpson played one memorable period in mop up duty giving up a couple of goals.
There needs to be some accountability in the front office for the bad contracts handed out. The bad contracts have forced some lopsided trades to be made. The drafts have been bad, who answers for that? Behind the bench also needs to answer for the powerplay, its been below average for years. Q and his sometimes curious player decisions need an answer. I know,I know, 3 cups and all, but sometimes I wonder. The Hawks were talented enough with 4 Hall of Famers to overcome some of his stubborness,( remember Q scratching Vermette and Tuevo for a game during the 15 cup run ). Now that Hossa is all but retired, Keith is slowing down, Toews has declined and even Kane is having an average ,by his standards, year, Q doesn’t have the answers.
February 9, 2018 at 10:00 am #4740Ken SilvermanParticipantGreat (and depressing) analysis. If we take this one step further and the organization lays the blame for this mess on Stanbo (not entirely true especially on the contracts handed out) and his scouts, where does this leave Q. Although Q can only coach what he has to work with, any GM will naturally want to bring in his own coach. Do the Hawk make room in the front office for Q? What about our Sr. Advisor – the elder Mr. Bowman? This is truly a messy situation and one that calls for Rocky to step up at some point and address his fan base so as to not alienate them.
February 9, 2018 at 10:14 am #4742Jeff OsbornKeymasterthanks everyone. These false narratives out there need to be pointed out. I’ve had a lot of requests to do a trade/acquisition one, so I’m starting my research. Thanks for the support, guys.
February 9, 2018 at 10:24 am #4743Mister RicochetParticipantNice work, Oz……….. Projecting goalies and then Dmen are the hardest positions to do so and the percentages of division rivals doing so proves that.
Yes StanBow has final say but generally he calls out names recommended by the scouts that actually see these players and the bosses that oversee those scouts. This is definitely an organIzational thing unlike handing out contacts which is all on StanBow.
Getting Forsling in a trade and signing Oesterle, Rutta, Kempny to FA contracts were good moves by StanBow.
Don’t understand the goalie drafting. Seems you either use a 1st or 2nd rounder on blue chippers or collect lots of them late or as FA in hopes one will hit. The Hawks do neither.
February 9, 2018 at 10:40 am #4744Jeff OsbornKeymasterBowman hasn’t struck out in every move, but there are many that people have forgotten that make you scratch your head.
February 9, 2018 at 11:08 am #4752Chico MakiParticipantStick a fork in this team–they’re done. Actually, they’ve been done for quite a while.
Anyone who believes this team can be “tweaked” next year by adding one of two guys is delusional. This a bad team right now. It’s loaded with older. over paid or aging guys that are probably impossible to move and other guys that either are AHL players or still too young and inexperienced to make a difference.
let’s take a look–
Toews–all the talk on trading Toews is probably just that–talk. With his contract he’d be near impossible to move. There’s no question he’s a shell of his former self. I still maintain there’s something physically wrong.
Anisomov–Usable player. Over paid. Could be trade bait
Hinostroza–Small, quick guy. Probably suited for minors.
Schmaltz–having a nice year, but, smaller guy, needs gym work. Are his stats inflated playing with Kane?
DuClair–has some speed and potential, could be developed.
Saad–a mystery. Fallen off the cliff. Still, might be moved?
Sharp–retirement.
Debrincat–another smurf, great shot but can be neutralized by a bigger guy. Could be used as trade bait.
Hartman–another mystery. Has regressed.
Kampf–next year’s 3rd or 4th center?
Kane–still the most dynamic player in the game. But, he’d return a YUUGE HAUL if traded.
Jurco–just a guy. AHL player.
Wingels–he is what he is–a 4th line banger.
Keith–still usable. But not a 1D anymore. He, too would bring some nice pieces if traded.
Seabrook–boat anchor. With a contract that will cost Debrincat or more to trade.
Kempny–he’s actually been pretty decent recently. But, at best a bottom six guy.
Murphy–meh. He’s been better from the beginning of the year, but again, on a “good team”, a bottom 6 guy at best a #4.
Oesterle– very good offensively, he makes me squirm in his own end. Again, at best a #4 or #5
Ruuta–started out the season well, since the concussion he’s been lost. Another, at best 1 #4.
Gustafson–probably another AHL guy.
Crawford–Who the hell knows. Next year, he’ll be 34, with no replacement in sight.
Forsberg–needs work. MAYBE, COULD be a back up(?)
Glass–just a guy.
So, who in that group would be on a Cup contending roster? Other than Kane? This team is loaded with bottom pairing defensmen.
This team needs defensive help–badly. They need a few D guys that are hard on the puck. They need bigger wingers, they have too many smurfs, too many AHL players.
And, I’m not at all confident Stan Bowman can fix it.
February 9, 2018 at 1:03 pm #4761JZSParticipant[quote quote=4752]Stick a fork in this team–they’re done. Actually, they’ve been done for quite a while. Anyone who believes this team can be “tweaked” next year by adding one of two guys is delusional. This a bad team right now. It’s loaded with older. over paid or aging guys that are probably impossible to move and other guys that either are AHL players or still too young and inexperienced to make a difference. let’s take a look– Toews–all the talk on trading Toews is probably just that–talk. With his contract he’d be near impossible to move. There’s no question he’s a shell of his former self. I still maintain there’s something physically wrong. Anisomov–Usable player. Over paid. Could be trade bait Hinostroza–Small, quick guy. Probably suited for minors. Schmaltz–having a nice year, but, smaller guy, needs gym work. Are his stats inflated playing with Kane? DuClair–has some speed and potential, could be developed. Saad–a mystery. Fallen off the cliff. Still, might be moved? Sharp–retirement. Debrincat–another smurf, great shot but can be neutralized by a bigger guy. Could be used as trade bait. Hartman–another mystery. Has regressed. Kampf–next year’s 3rd or 4th center? Kane–still the most dynamic player in the game. But, he’d return a YUUGE HAUL if traded. Jurco–just a guy. AHL player. Wingels–he is what he is–a 4th line banger. Keith–still usable. But not a 1D anymore. He, too would bring some nice pieces if traded. Seabrook–boat anchor. With a contract that will cost Debrincat or more to trade. Kempny–he’s actually been pretty decent recently. But, at best a bottom six guy. Murphy–meh. He’s been better from the beginning of the year, but again, on a “good team”, a bottom 6 guy at best a #4. Oesterle– very good offensively, he makes me squirm in his own end. Again, at best a #4 or #5 Ruuta–started out the season well, since the concussion he’s been lost. Another, at best 1 #4. Gustafson–probably another AHL guy. Crawford–Who the hell knows. Next year, he’ll be 34, with no replacement in sight. Forsberg–needs work. MAYBE, COULD be a back up(?) Glass–just a guy. So, who in that group would be on a Cup contending roster? Other than Kane? This team is loaded with bottom pairing defensmen. This team needs defensive help–badly. They need a few D guys that are hard on the puck. They need bigger wingers, they have too many smurfs, too many AHL players. And, I’m not at all confident Stan Bowman can fix it.
There’s no questions that Bowman has done poorly picking D-men. But I’ve got two questions:
1. In which rounds were the Hawks picking d-men? If a lot of these guys were selected after rounds one or two, don’t their chances of making it to the NHL plummet?
2. Doesn’t it take longer for d-men to develop than forwards? So, isn’t it possible that a number of those picks still have a chance of making it to the NHL? The Hawks just called Dahlstrom who was drafted in 2013.
February 9, 2018 at 2:56 pm #4766SeymourParticipantDon’t forget that the Hawks had a solid training/prep program in Norfolk under Trent Yawney. Sheldon Brookbank is coaching in the Rock now, and we’ll have to see how things progress. Yawney was the one who brought along Keith/Seabrook. The Hawks success from 08-16/17 was always back end forward with quick retrival and transition. Keith, Campbell, Leddy …. and then shot blockers/transition/2/3 players like Hjammer and Oduya.
It remains to be seen what players like 2 & 7 have left in the tank. The league has gotten so fast. In my opinion, I’d like to see a few young d-pairs get put together and stuck together for the rest of the season. Let them play and make mistakes, just like Seabrook and Keith did. Look at the Cup teams over the past decade or so. Lidstrom, Letang, Doughty, Chara, Keith…. The Oilers are the prime example of drafting top end blue-chip scoring forwards. They can’t even make the playoffs. Yes, you need players who can put the puck in the net, but the teams that separate themselves from the rest are the ones that transition extremely well.
February 9, 2018 at 5:30 pm #4768Hank_GreenbergParticipant[quote quote=4742]thanks everyone. These false narratives out there need to be pointed out. I’ve had a lot of requests to do a trade/acquisition one, so I’m starting my research. Thanks for the support, guys.
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Great (and depressing) work, Oz. I’d hate to see where the Hawks would be without their success in mining Europe and Russia. Not looking to make work for you, but I’d love to see an analysis of where the front office is relative to their peers on this issue ….
February 9, 2018 at 7:07 pm #4769fattybeefParticipantSo AA isn’t overpaid. He’s right on par with his peers that do similar things. Like not being bad but not being great and some how managing 40 points regardless of where he is at. One of the better Bowman deals tbh at least money wise. Don’t agree with the nmc but that cash isn’t anything to complain about.
February 9, 2018 at 7:17 pm #4770fattybeefParticipantAlso, drafting in the NHL is not easy. The Preds seem to be one of the few teams that produce tremendous defenders with any regularity. Boston hasn’t been bad either.
Otherwise it’s no bueno across the league. With all these teams too the talent pool is diluted and the for real difference between the Hawks and the other teams is pretty miniscule.
It’s overly frustrating because of the success they’ve had the last several years.
They can certainly win with this group if they establish an identity and add a stable veteran or two. That’s easier said than done but with the way the league is now and another team to be added shortly, it’s going to be a teter totter between being medicore and in the hunt.
February 9, 2018 at 7:39 pm #4771JZSParticipantBelow is a piece by TSN’s Travis Yost, which breaks down the likelihood of draft picks making it to the NHL. While 80% of first rounders play in the league, only 44% of second rounders and 30% of third rounders do. The last time the Hawks took a d-man in the first round before last year was 2009.
Between 2010 and 2013, they waited till round two to draft defensemen, two in 2010 and one in each of the succeeding years. In 2010, Bowman selected Justin Holl, now in the Leaf’s system, and Johns with Dallas, giving him a score of 50%, slightly better than average. He selected Clendening and Fournier in 2011 and 2012, respectively. The former turned out to be a bust. But Bowman may have recouped his losses by trading him for Forsling. Fournier had to quit hockey because of a shoulder injury. Consequently, it’s hard to know whether he’d have made it to the NHL. The Hawks just called up their 2013 second rounder, Dahlstrom. So, it’s too soon to call him a bust. Consequently, when you examine the numbers closely, the Hawks haven’t done that badly in round two. The problem is in the later rounds, where the chances of success are much slimmer. The good news, as Jeff Osborn pointed out, is that the Hawks seemed to realize the error of their ways last year.
Here’s Travis Yost:
So, this is reasonably what we would expect. 80% of first-round picks, 44% of second-round picks, and 30% of third-round picks will become low-level (or better) NHL players. Scott Cullen has done great work looking at specific pick values.The majority of those will realize something better than a few cups of coffee at the NHL level, of course.
What’s interesting is in the later rounds, the art of hitting on a draft pick seems to be entirely random. Round five, for example, only offers a 1.6% better chance that a player ends up as replacement level or better than a player selected in round seven.
February 10, 2018 at 9:05 am #4777Mister RicochetParticipant[quote quote=4771]Below is a piece by TSN’s Travis Yost, which breaks down the likelihood of draft picks making it to the NHL. While 80% of first rounders play in the league, only 44% of second rounders and 30% of third rounders do. The last time the Hawks took a d-man in the first round before last year was 2009. Between 2010 and 2013, they waited till round two to draft defensemen, two in 2010 and one in each of the succeeding years. In 2010, Bowman selected Justin Holl, now in the Leaf’s system, and Johns with Dallas, giving him a score of 50%, slightly better than average. He selected Clendening and Fournier in 2011 and 2012, respectively. The former turned out to be a bust. But Bowman may have recouped his losses by trading him for Forsling. Fournier had to quit hockey because of a shoulder injury. Consequently, it’s hard to know whether he’d have made it to the NHL. The Hawks just called up their 2013 second rounder, Dahlstrom. So, it’s too soon to call him a bust. Consequently, when you examine the numbers closely, the Hawks haven’t done that badly in round two. The problem is in the later rounds, where the chances of success are much slimmer. The good news, as Jeff Osborn pointed out, is that the Hawks seemed to realize the error of their ways last year. Here’s Travis Yost: So, this is reasonably what we would expect. 80% of first-round picks, 44% of second-round picks, and 30% of third-round picks will become low-level (or better) NHL players. Scott Cullen has done great work looking at specific pick values. The majority of those will realize something better than a few cups of coffee at the NHL level, of course. What’s interesting is in the later rounds, the art of hitting on a draft pick seems to be entirely random. Round five, for example, only offers a 1.6% better chance that a player ends up as replacement level or better than a player selected in round seven.
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Very helpful post!! Gives things perspective, which brings me to the next question. Do the Hawks ALWAYS take the best player on the board or do they deviate and sometimes draft for need? Has it been that forwards on the board were just rated higher than the Dmen often enough and is the reason for the dearth of Dmen making it to the NHL?
February 10, 2018 at 10:13 am #4779John JaeckelParticipantI was talking to Kris Wagner, Washington Caps’ Director of Hockey Ops, recently, about how only MLB and NHL draft 17 year olds. It’s much more of a crap shoot than say NFL or NBA. All that said, Hawk fans, especially those of the last decade, tend to think it’s always gonna be like 2002-2007 where there were repeated “hits” and every prospect seemed to pan out. Bear in mind, those drafts were scouted by guys named Rick Dudley, Marshall Johnston and Dale Tallon (before he was GM). My knock on Bowman, beyond a handful of questionable to bad contracts, was he traded Byfuglien, Ladd and several others for picks that were mostly total whiffs. At some point, you can’t blame this or that. It is what it is.
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