Notably, Adam Boqvist did not dress for the game. Although he was able to practice late in the week after leaving Wednesday’s game early, Head Coach Jeremy Colliton decided to sit the young Swede and allow newly claimed Nick Seeler to make his Blackhawks debut.

The Hawks came out strong to start. After three days off, it was expected they would look well-rested and play hard in the opening period.

Not only did they come out strong, but the Blackhawks also didn’t waste any time finding the back of the net either. Just 15 seconds into the game, after a missed shot, Jonathan Toews found Drake Caggiula who had an excellent look at the net. After being denied, Caggiula slid the puck back to Dominik Kubalik in the slot and he fired home his 22^nd goal of the season.

Did someone order a good start?

This one took just 15 seconds pic.twitter.com/Mtxv4mOVM1

— Blackhawks Talk (@NBCSBlackhawks) February 10, 2020

Not only did the goal give the Hawks the 1–0 lead early, Toews also recorded his 800^th career point in his hometown of Winnipeg.

O CAPTAIN!

With an assist on Kubalik's tally, Jonathan Toews has recorded his 800th @NHL point! #Blackhawks pic.twitter.com/wDohGxbQQH

— Chicago Blackhawks (@NHLBlackhawks) February 10, 2020

#1 #800 for Jonathan Toews pic.twitter.com/oERc9cGq15

— Blackhawks Talk (@NBCSBlackhawks) February 10, 2020

The Captain continues to add to his Hall of Fame worthy career with his 800^th point. He is now the fourth player from the 2006 draft class to record 800 points.

Jonathan Toews is the fourth member of the 2006 draft class to reach 800 career points, joining Nicklas Backstrom (915), Phil Kessel (855) and Claude Giroux (800). #Blackhawks

— Carter Baum (@CarterBaum) February 10, 2020

The Blackhawks continued to push and played a strong first period. Winnipeg definitely looked like a team who played the day before. Although the Hawks had some great chances, Connor Hellebuyck made some great saves to keep the visitors from extending their lead.

Despite the great goaltending of Hellebuyck, the second line for the Hawks capitalized on an opportunity. Nick Seeler fired a shot toward the net, which completely missed the cage. The puck bounced off the boards behind the net and right to Patrick Kane who was waiting on the right wing red line. Kane made a quick move and dished the puck to the front of the net where the red hot Brandon Saad tipped home his 16^th of the year.

Welcome to the @NHLBlackhawks, Nick Seeler!

The newest member of the squad gets an assist in his first game, on Brandon Saad's goal pic.twitter.com/z26mr5Sjx6

— Blackhawks Talk (@NBCSBlackhawks) February 10, 2020

Corey Crawford was also excellent. He made two massive saves in the second half of the period to deny the Jets from getting on the board. The first was a great save on Scheifele in the slot and the other was a robbery on Nikolaj Ehlers, who could only look to the heavens after missing on his back-door opportunity.

CROW. MY. GOSH pic.twitter.com/CSSNIYRXIB

— Blackhawks Talk (@NBCSBlackhawks) February 10, 2020

As the middle frame opened, the momentum did a full 180. The Jets came out as a team with a purpose in the second period, looking to catch up with the visitors.

Although the Blackhawks were on a power play, the Jets got the better of the man advantage situation. Shorthanded, Andrew Copp made a sensational saucer pass to Kyle Connor who effortlessly lifted the shot over Crawford. Connor’s 27^th of the year cut the Hawks’ lead to just one.

Jets get on the board in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/LgLAdXtSiu

— Blackhawks Talk (@NBCSBlackhawks) February 10, 2020

The rest of the period was much of the same. The Jets had multiple short-handed opportunities against the Hawks, but Crawford continued to bail out his teammates in front of him. The Hawks looked lackadaisical and were badly outplayed by the Jets. However, they somehow managed to escape the period without any additional damage and held on to the lead.

The third period unfortunately spelled doom for the Blackhawks. The Jets scored four unanswered goals in the third period, two being empty netters, to knock off the Hawks 5–2.

The key to the collapse was a lack of pace. The Hawks couldn’t do anything after their sensational first ten minutes. They could not do anything to outplay the Jets and the Jets took full advantage of the Hawks tonight.

Along the boards

The Hawks looked brutal for the last 50 minutes of the game. They had no urgency, no pace, and no energy. If the Hawks continue to play that way, the “p” word is not going to be in the Hawks’ future at this pace.

This season has been concerning for Alex DeBrincat. It was fair to expect a bit of a slide, as Toews and Kane are both on pace for lower numbers than last season, but still will have good numbers. Saad is on pace for over 20 goals and Kubalik may get to 50 points. The largest drop off is Alex DeBrincat. Just see the following:

Some #Blackhawks numbers coming at you……

Alex Debrincat is on pace for a 20 point slide from last season.

From 41-35-76 to 19-37-56

— Puckin Hostile (@PuckinHostile.bsky.social) (@PuckinHostile) January 30, 2020

That is a large drop-off for a player who just was rewarded a 3 year, $6.4 million AAV deal at the start of the year. A big pickup for the team’s offense would be to get more production out of their young winger.

I continue to be pleasantly surprised by Kirby Dach’s play. He has had a good season, although the offensive numbers aren’t where most would like them to be for a third overall pick. However, guys take time to develop and Dach is developing very nicely. If he continues to develop and get stronger, he’ll be a very good forward for a long time in the NHL.

I’m so excited to see Dach once he starts adding muscle to that huge frame. He’s already solid defensively and shows the offensive flash, just wait until he can start bullying people. #Blackhawks

— Ron Luce (@LuceOnTap) February 10, 2020

One fun note, Seeler was fun to watch tonight. His fight was his highlight of the night, but he played a decent game in his debut.

We like this kid. pic.twitter.com/W8p5qv3Lgm

— Blackhawks Talk (@NBCSBlackhawks) February 10, 2020

The Blackhawks return to play on Tuesday, February 11 as they take on Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers in Edmonton. Puck drop is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. CST.

The post Along the boards: Jets soar, comeback to defeat Blackhawks 5–2 appeared first on The Rink.

7:30 p.m. CST

STAPLES Center

TV/Radio: WGN

PROJECTED STARTERS

Chicago – Corey Crawford (14–18–4, save percentage: .908, goals against average: 2.94)

Winnipeg – Connor Hellebuyck (32–23–2, save percentage: .913, goals against average: 2.92)

TEAM STATISTICS

Power play

Chicago (20.5 percent, 12th)

Winnipeg (25.5 percent, Fourth)

Penalty kill

Chicago (72.7 percent, 31st)

Winnipeg (79.0 percent, 23rd)

Shots for/against

Chicago (32.5, 11th; 34.5, 30th)

Winnipeg (31.0, 19th; 33.7, 29th)

Shooting percentage

Chicago (10.0 percent, Ninth)

Winnipeg (10.7 percent, Fourth)

Faceoff percentage

Chicago (49.4 percent, T-20th)

Winnipeg (50.7 percent, 11th)

Average height and weight

Chicago 6’1”, 195 lbs.

Winnipeg 6’2”, 201 lbs.

PROJECTED LINES/PAIRINGS

Chicago Blackhawks

Brandon Saad–Jonathan Toews–Dylan Sikura

Alex DeBrincat–Dylan Strome–Dominik Kahun

Drake Caggiula–Artem Anisimov–Patrick Kane

Chris Kunitz–David Kampf–Marcus Kruger

Duncan Keith–Erik Gustafsson

Gustav Forsling–Brent Seabrook

Slater Koekkoek–Connor Murphy

Winnipeg Jets

Nikolaj Ehlers–Mark Scheifele–Blake Wheeler

Kyle Connor–Kevin Hayes–Patrik Laine

Brandon Tanev–Adam Lowry–Bryan Little

Matt Hendricks–Andrew Copp–Mathieu Perreault

Nathan Beaulieu–Jacob Trouba

Dmitry Kulikov–Tyler Myers

Ben Chiarot–Sami Niku

Analysis

The Blackhawks’ playoff hopes have all but come to an end. The last few games now continue the tryout for spots on next year’s roster. Notables that will continue auditioning for positions include Brendan Perlini, Slater Koekkoek and John Hayden (assuming Hayden ever gets into a game).

The concerns for this team were put on display in Saturday night’s loss to the Los Angeles Kings. Defensemen being out of position was the highlight of the loss. It is clear what the primary need for this team in the offseason is.

The remaining schedule for the Blackhawks consists of four division rivals. Three home games against the Winnipeg Jets, St. Louis Blues and Dallas Stars, followed by the season finale at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. If these remaining games are good for anything, it will be to measure where they stand against the playoff-qualifying Central Division teams.

The Jets are in a tie with the Nashville Predators at the top of the Central Division, with the Blues only two points back of both teams. The next week of play for the Jets will determine whether or not they earn a Central Division title or if they fall into a spot against either the Blues or Predators.

Although still a good team, the Jets have cooled off since their early season tear. This is a chance for the Blackhawks to play spoiler against the Jets. Winnipeg is arguably the most complete team in the division, however, the Blackhawks have a golden opportunity to take the Jets down a notch in the standings with a win on Monday evening.

Comment below in our live game thread tonight!

And look for the internet’s most robust recap of the game tomorrow morning on the-rink.com.

The post Preview/Game Thread: Blackhawks vs Jets appeared first on The Rink.

According to ESPN (I know, but they’re the only site with a hardware tracker), Vasilevskiy leads the early Vezina race, followed by Hellebuyck, Quick, Rinne, Bobrovsky, and Crawford. I’m going to take a look at these six net minders in comparison to both each other and the league as a whole using some lesser-known statistics.

Below is a combination of advanced and traditional goalie statistics where the value is followed by the overall league rank in parenthesis:

Stats from Jan 8

The Fancy Numbers

Before we dive in, I’ll contextualize some of these less-than-self-explanatory stats.

HDSA%: High Danger Shot Attempt % – the percentage of shots a goaltender faces that are taken from the “high danger zone”

LDSA%: Low Danger Shot Attempt % – the percentage of shots a goaltender faces that are taken from the “low danger zone”

HDSv%: High Danger Save % -a goaltender’s save percentage on shot attempts from the high danger zone (Read: Goaltender ceiling, saving shots you wouldn’t necessarily expect them to)

LDSv%: Low Danger Save % – a goaltender’s save percentage on shot attempts from the low danger zone (Read: Goaltender floor, saving the shots you would expect them to save)

dSv%: Differential Save % – a goaltender’s save percentage minus their expected save percentage (xSv%) calculated based on their HDSA%, MDSA%, LDSA%, and the league average weighted save percentages. (Positive numbers indicate the goaltender is performing better than you would expect the average goaltender to given their shot quality distribution against them; negative would indicate the inverse).

GSAA: Goals Saved Above Average – total goals allowed minus league average save percentage*number of shots that goalie has faced. (Positive numbers indicate the goalie is saving more shot than you would expect the average goaltender to given the number of shot they have faced; negative would indicate the inverse)

Several years ago the guys over at War-On-Ice developed the danger level save percentage stat, which takes into account shot location to create three separate save percentages by danger level and an overall weighted save percentage based on league average numbers. If you take a look at the graphic you’ll see shots are broken down into high danger chances (blue – the crease and slot), medium danger chances (pink – inside the “house” and the high slot), and low danger chances (yellow – the points, the half wall, and below the goal line). Essentially, this method uses the weighted distribution of shot quality to create an expected save percentage based on league average numbers, or xSv%. In the table above, you’ll notice I did not include xSv%, but rather dSv%, which is the difference between a goaltenders actual save percentage and their expected save percentage based on the distribution of the quality of chances they face.

Now if you’re thinking “but…but…this doesn’t seem very scientific! A high danger scoring chance can come from lots of places on the ice”, you’re probably right. A Schmaltz to Kane one timer from the end boards or a Shea Weber slapper with a screened goalie are about as high danger an opportunity as you can get; but would be considered “low danger” scoring attempts using this shot distribution method. If you want to think about it like that then HDSv% is a more “valuable” stat because shots from the slot are almost always high danger while shots from low danger areas are not going to be truly low danger the same percentage of the time. Which is why your elite goaltenders will have good league-relative HDSv%s but not necessarily good league relative LDSv%s.

So it’s not perfect, but generally it is a better way to contextualize shots than weighing all shots as equally dangerous because generally a shot from the crease will be more dangerous than a flipper from the point. Generally. But I digress.

Save Makers and Vezina Fakers

If we only evaluate the “traditional” goaltender metrics, (Wins, Sv%, GAA) the ESPN trophy list would seem about right, but if we look deeper at the advanced number, the story is a little different. I provided the distribution of high and low danger shot percentages for each goalie as a sort of measuring stick. These stats are ones that the goaltender cannot influence, but rather provide context for the situations their defense puts them in and distribution shot quality they typically have to face.

Connor Hellebuyck has received a lot of praise recently, which has brought his name into the conversation for the Vezina, but is it deservingly so? Hellebuyck has faced the fewest high danger scoring attempts in the entire league. On top of that, Hellebuyck’s high danger save percentage is below the league average and the lowest of any of the other Vezina candidates. These numbers point to the fact that the ‘peg defense is able to shield Hellebuyck from facing high danger scoring chances being exposed. If teams can figure out how to penetrate the Jet’s D and get some quality scoring chances off, Hellebuyck will be poised to topple like a house of cards.

In fact, the story gets even worse for Hellebuyck when we look at differential save percentage and goals saved above average. Given the relative ease of the shot quality distribution Hellebuyck faces, we would actually expect the average goaltender to have a save percentage .35 points higher than Hellebuyck. Hellebuyck is the only Vezina candidate who has a negative differential save percentage, while all six others are in the league’s top ten in dSv%. Furthermore, based on Hellebuyck’s GSAA, we would expect the league’s average goaltender to have allowed 2.57 fewer goals through this point in the season based only off shot totals, not shot quality distribution. This means that given the number of randomly distributed chances (and likely a more difficult workload given Hellebuyck’s HDSA%) an average goalie would be outperforming Hellebuyck by just under three goals so far this season. I think the advanced numbers show its clear that Hellebuyck does not deserve to be in the Vezina conversation regardless of how good the Jet’s D in front of him is. 

Not All Shots are Created Equal

Of the six candidates, you’ll observe that only Crawford and Bobrovsky are on teams that allow high danger shot attempts at not only a higher rate than the league average, but in the top five highest rates of HDSA in the league. Not only are Crawford and Bobrovsky facing significantly more A+ chances, but also have the two best high danger save percentages of all the Vezina candidates (second and third best in the league respectively). This tells us that these goalies are making more quality stops and bailing their team out much more frequently than any of the other contender, something any halfway Hawk fan could have told you about Crow this season.

Because of this, Crawford and Bob have two of the three highest dSv% in the league, meaning given the amount of high danger chances they face, we would expect them to make far fewer saves. However, despite only facing the 29^th most high danger shot attempts, (thus raising his xSv%) Vasilevskiy has the best dSv%, boasting the second highest low danger save percentage and eighth highest high danger save percentage. Moreover, Vasilevskiy also has the highest GSAA by a wide margin, saving 15 more goals than the average goalie would be expected to in his position. These contextual numbers point to Vasilevskiy being the obvious front-runner for the Vezina with Crawford and Bobrovsky both close behind in the hunt.

Thanks for reading and I’d love to hear your thoughts below.

Dan

The post Contenders and Pretenders: An Analytical Look at the Early Vezina Race appeared first on The Rink.