Typically, 90%+ of the speculation is unfounded.

Still, this is an unusually important offseason for the Blackhawks. There is no conclusive evidence that the rebuild is working—or not working. The team overperformed the first half of last year (while playing a lot of games against Columbus and Detroit due to a COVID-19-dictated schedule), and then played pretty poorly from March 1 on.

Characterizing another season of not making the (actual) playoffs, the Hawks were yet again an abysmal 5-on-5 team (a much more serious—and roster-based—problem than many fans or the media seem to realize), making the possible (or not possible) return of center Jonathan Toews all the more critical to improvement in 2021–22.

So, here, based on the situation outlined above—and filtered through the lens of economics, past experience and logic—are various ways the summer might unfold for the Blackhawks, and what it all might mean.

Whither the “rebuild?”

The first—and most important—premise to understand is that the Hawks want to return to the playoffs, if not Stanley Cup contention, as soon as possible.

Rightly or wrongly, the team has committed to a “rebuild” around a few remaining (and rapidly aging) stars from the previous Stanley Cup teams. And this is really important to understand when you are considering the possibility that the Blackhawks could be trade or free-agency players for defensemen Seth Jones and Dougie Hamilton or forwards Jack Eichel and Matthew Tkachuk.

What most of the speculation around the Hawks pursuing any of these players seems to not take into account is that there will be significant markets for each of these players. Put more simply, it is not like Chicago General Manager Stan Bowman picks up the phone, calls Columbus General Manager Jarmo Kekalainen, offers Pius Suter, Ian Mitchell and a bag of pucks and magically acquires Jones.

There will be strong, league-wide interest in each of these players—which will drive up the “price” each player’s respective team is asking. Or, if Hamilton goes the unrestricted free agency route, the team that signs him will pay heavily in average annual value and term. And, if that team should be the Blackhawks, that price may be even higher, as they will be bidding against at least one or two teams that are closer to actual Cup contention.

So, if you want Jones, are you willing to give up Adam Boqvist and this year’s first-round pick (for starters)? If you want Eichel, are you willing to give up the above and Kirby Dach?

Or, say, Alex DeBrincat and this year’s first-round selection and something else.

Or Patrick Kane?

If you want Hamilton, are you willing to pay him $8–9 million a year until he is, say, 35—with a no-movement clause?

Most fans, if Hawk Twitter over the last week or so is any good metric, would balk.

Again, typically, many Blackhawk fans tend to overvalue Chicago players and prospects versus those of other teams—so we can debate whether Eichel is worth “so much” ‘til the cows come home. But, what probably is not debatable is that the price is going to be high, and it is going to mean giving up “good” players that you are currently trying to rebuild around (or with).

Setting the price aside, it also means this: Jones, Hamilton, Eichel or Tkachuk are elite or near-elite young (or “younger,” anyway) players. Each is better than Boqvist or Dach. Or DeBrincat. And odds are, each will be over the course of the players’ respective careers.

There is a school of thought that you need to acquire potentially elite, near-elite and/or already-elite players in order to rebuild into a Cup contender. So, there is an argument that packaging up pieces and parts of the recent “rebuild” to acquire a young difference-maker at defense or center—both huge areas of need for Chicago)—makes some sense. Simply stated, trade two or three good (or “potentially good”) young players/prospects for a great young player.

But, would Bowman do that? If we had to bet, we would say no. Big, bold, splashy moves have never been Bowman’s forte. Further, the Hawk organization has invested a lot of time and “reputational” capital in their “rebuild around Kane, Toews and Duncan Keith” plan.

However, there is ample evidence that the hoped-for acquisition and development of enough good young players to re-establish the Blackhawks as contenders—while Kane, Keith and Toews are still productive players—is becoming less and less likely.

And those of you still holding onto the idea that the Hawks really have improved a lot and are close to a return to the league’s elite, need to go watch more of this year’s playoff games—see and understand the speed, the depth and the physicality of teams like Colorado, Vegas, Tampa Bay, the New York Islanders, etc.—and then go hit yourself in the head with a ballpeen hammer.

That said, one of the hallmarks of a strong organization and a strong general manager is to recognize when a plan is not working and adroitly adjust course. But, this, also, has not been one of Bowman’s strong suits.

However, his 2019 draft, where he deliberately and publicly went “big” with Dach and defenseman Alex Vlasic, was a course change and an admission that years of drafting small, but “skilled” skaters was not paying off.

Eichel and Toews, Toews and Eichel

Toews has missed a full year of hockey with a mystery “ailment,” and he will be 34 years old at the end of the upcoming season. Here at The Rink, we are huge Toews fans. But, all of us need to be realistic in our expectations.

Based on the scant information anyone (beyond Toews, his agent, his doctor and the Blackhawks) has, there is a plausible scenario where Toews gets 100% “healthy,” returns to full workouts and comes back rejuvenated after a year off—giving the team a nice and much-needed lift in the face-off circle, 5-on-5, on special teams, etc.

But, there are other, perhaps more likely, scenarios where Toews cannot return—or if he does return, he is somewhat diminished due to the “ailment/injury” and/or age, or he returns, but his ability to play is sporadic for the remainder of his career.

This comes back to Eichel. Eichel is not a 1:1 “doppelganger” for Toews, but they are both No. 1 centers, team captains and somewhat similar stylistically. And, at 24 years of age, entering really the prime of his career, Eichel is in all likelihood an upgrade at the 1C position in the lineup.

In addition to the possibility Buffalo does not even trade Eichel, it is also plausible that the Hawks might only publicly “kick the tires” to see if there would be some way to add him in—along with Toews returning. But, that is almost impossible due to salary alone. Talking about going after Eichel to get some news coverage is a lot different than actually going after Eichel.

So, if you do see the Hawks (legitimately, not speculatively) make a hard move for Eichel this summer, you can pretty safely assume that the team is none too confident in Toews’ prospects going forward. And, should the team succeed in acquiring Eichel, you can also expect, along with that, a bit of a roster overhaul and overall course correction on the “rebuild.”

There is no question, even with Toews, the Blackhawks have needed much better play at the center position to get back in contention.

Some keep holding out for Dylan Strome to be part of that solution, which is probably not happening.

Many have rushed to assume that Dach solves that problem. It is way too early to say that, however, and it remains to be seen if Dach ends up over the course of his NHL career as a winger or a No. 2 center (a level he is still working toward), instead of a No. 1 center.

So, while the Hawk blueline remains a vexing and obvious problem, do not be surprised if the focus of the team this summer lies on a young, expensive center from Massachusetts.

What will happen?

Just due to the law of averages, the Blackhawks probably will not acquire any of the three or four marquee “available” players this summer. And, they will continue on their present course, draft another potentially “good” player at 12th overall, pray for Toews’ healthy (and durable) return and hope for some organic growth from their current batch of young players and prospects.

If the Hawks do not enter the Eichel sweepstakes, the next most likely target would potentially be Jones. Could Bowman craft a package that might sway Kekalainen that somehow does not strip too much of the Blackhawks’ already thin supply of good players and prospects? Would Jones commit to extend his contract in Chicago? Big questions.

Or, Bowman might swing a trade or two to “upgrade” the middle of the roster somehow. The team might even take a dip in the free agency pool, albeit shopping more on the budget rack as has become the norm in recent years.

But, this offseason, or perhaps before the in-season trade deadline, that “course correction” we suggested above could happen—where the team finally acknowledges (if not publicly, then to themselves) that Kane, Keith and Toews will not be good enough, long enough, for the young players and prospects to catch up with them.

All we have for now. Comment below.

The post ANALYSIS: What to expect from the Blackhawks’ offseason appeared first on The Rink.

With no line changes from Saturday to Sunday, the Blackhawks trotted out the following line combinations:

Saad — Toews — Nylander

DeBrincat — Strome — Kane

Kubalik — Kampf — Shaw

Smith — Dach — Carpenter

Keith — Gustafsson

de Haan — Seabrook

Maatta — Murphy

Crawford

First period

The period began with a buzzing Blackhawks squad showing well early. In the first three minutes alone, the Blackhawks looked like they were ready to play, despite having played the night before.

The Sabres began to pick up their play as the period wore on, specifically almost capitalizing on a Crawford mistake. The Chicago netminder made a desperation save when scampering back to his net after playing a puck. Fortunately, the puck stayed out and Dominik Kubalik had a semi breakaway the other way, but he was ultimately denied by Buffalo goaltender Carter Hutton.

The best chance for the Hawks came after an Alex DeBrincat penalty. As the penalty expired, DeBrincat and Dylan Strome exchanged passes. Strome threw the puck behind the net in the offensive zone to “The Cat” and the undersized winger found Patrick Kane open in the slot. The point-blank bid was denied by Hutton, but could have easily been a goal given the nifty passing from that line.

Not too long after, the Blackhawks capitalized on their momentum following the failed Buffalo power play. A Duncan Keith outlet pass ended up on Kirby Dach’s stick as he skated to the defensive blue line. Dach set up a give-and-go with Kubalik as they passed through the neutral zone. Dach made an outstanding play on his individual effort, lowering his shoulder to shield a defender and put a backhand shot over Hutton’s shoulder for the first tally of the game and a 1–0 Chicago lead.

Kirby Dach going backhand! @NHLBlackhawks lead 1-0. Stream here: https://t.co/jQFUIagZqV pic.twitter.com/E87dXUahCk

— Blackhawks Talk (@NBCSBlackhawks) November 18, 2019

Despite a late power play for the Blackhawks in the period, Chicago could not add to its lead. However, the Hawks took their 1–0 lead into the first intermission without issue after a fast first period between both teams. 

Second period

The middle frame did not lack any action, beginning in a similar fashion to that of the first period. In the first seven minutes of the period, both teams traded power play opportunities, but neither team could capitalize on their opportunity.

The majority of the period was defined by big saves from Crawford. The Hawks’ goaltender was superb, making numerous big stops on Sabre shooters. 

With about eight minutes remaining in the period, Dach nearly tallied his second goal of the game. Zach Smith tipped a puck at the blue line to open ice. Dach had a free chance from the top of the circles going in, but was denied by Hutton’s spectacular save. 

Under a minute later, Dach indeed picked up his second goal of the game. After the fourth line had a great chance before, head coach Jeremy Colliton sent that line back out there for another possession. Smith found Dach skating in and the rookie made a beautiful move to finish on the breakaway. Dach’s sneaky speed played a key on the play, as he was able to slip behind the Sabres’ defense and generate the open chance. 

Reminder that Kirby Dach is 18 years old… PRAY FOR THE LEAGUE

Stream the game here: https://t.co/eRyV0KGCum pic.twitter.com/G5bNYbnCRJ

— Blackhawks Talk (@NBCSBlackhawks) November 18, 2019

To the surprise of many, Erik Gustafsson dropped the gloves with Buffalo forward Jimmy Vesey not long after Dach’s goal. One of the last people most Blackhawks fans would expect to fight put up a solid effort against Vesey.

Gloves. Off. pic.twitter.com/JVOVWpcTy5

— Blackhawks Talk (@NBCSBlackhawks) November 18, 2019

Dach continued his dominance during the game by drawing a penalty. The 18-year-old skated into the offensive zone and nearly beat two Sabres defenders to get off an open shot. As he went to shoot, the Sabres took the penalty to prevent the quality chance and sent the home team to the man advantage. 

Just as the time was about to expire, Dach was called for interference on a strange play. Without a stick, Dach was skating to the bench. On his way back, he lit up Sam Reinhart, drawing the penalty.

The 2–0 lead was safe for now heading into the second intermission. Chicago continued to be outshot by the visitors, but Dach was the difference to that point. 

Third period

The Blackhawks began the third period by killing the Dach penalty with relative ease. To add to the action, the Blackhawks nearly ended the kill with a goal after Jonathan Toews was denied by Hutton on a two-on-one opportunity with Ryan Carpenter. 

Just a few minutes after the kill, the Blackhawks once again had a chance on the power play. The man advantage began with Andrew Shaw taking a face off to Hutton’s left. 

The face off resulted in a 50-50 puck that numerous players for both teams attempted to corral. In normal “Showtime” fashion, Kane used his quick hands to secure the puck, quickly turn around and rip a shot past Hutton to extend the Hawks’ lead to 3–0. The goal extended Kane’s point streak to nine games. 

9-game point streak for No. 88!#Showtime pic.twitter.com/0ewPhurG6x

— Chicago Blackhawks (@NHLBlackhawks) November 18, 2019

Brandon Saad was denied twice on solid open chances in the period. On the second chance, Jake McCabe tied up Saad when he went to bury the chance with a backhand. To Saad’s credit, he stuck with the play and set up Toews to extend the Blackhawks’ lead to 4–0.

Toews from the slot. 4-0. #blackhawks #sabres pic.twitter.com/3lwb1dMf5J

— Buffalo Hockey Moments (@SabresPlays) November 18, 2019

The third period had quite a pace to it. Just as Gene Honda was announcing the Toews goal, Calvin de Haan turned a puck over at the Hawks’ blue line and Jack Eichel had an open chance on Crawford. Eichel was able to capitalize and beat Crawford to give cut into the Blackhawks’ advantage at 4–1. 

Jack Eichel steals the puck and gets one on the board! #Sabres50 | @Jackeichel15 pic.twitter.com/F7GOoTdHol

— Buffalo Sabres (@BuffaloSabres) November 18, 2019

The momentum was then in favor of the Sabres. Following the Eichel goal, Evan Rodrigues went to the net and nearly scored again, but the Sabres did draw a penalty, so they returned to the power play looking to close the scoring gap even further.

The Blackhawks controlled the Sabres on the man advantage. The Hawks generated the best chance of the Sabres’ man advantage when Saad had a breakaway from his own blue line in. Unfortunately, Saad could not get off a quality chance when trying to tuck the puck past Hutton.

The game had plenty of action for the rest of the game. In the last two minutes, Colliton threw Kane out on the ice with Dach to try and get the rookie his first career hat trick. Dach had a great backhand chance, but the shot sailed wide.

Despite the lack of a hat trick, the Blackhawks pick up their fourth consecutive win, downing the Sabres 4–1. 

Quick hits

• Someone call a Dach-tor: Kirby Dach was spectacular in this game. I am not underselling that either. He was all over the ice, using his speed, creating chances with effort and was a difference maker in this game. Dach has proven he belongs in the NHL, and, in his first season, could be a surprise that many fans did not expect as his confidence continues to grow each game.
• The Crow: Corey Crawford had another great game for the Blackhawks. The goaltending for the Hawks has been arguably the biggest strength for this team and Crawford continued that effort against the Sabres. He is 11–0 in his career against the boys from Buffalo and he and Robin Lehner put on a show over the course of the weekend back-to-back.
• This team is fun again: Not only was Connor Murphy a welcomed addition to the lineup against Nashville, but this team is beginning to play with confidence and swag. The Blackhawks are fun to watch again. There I said it. Are they perfect? No. Are they the teams of old? No. Are they fun to watch and giving fans a sense of hope for something positive in the future? Absolutely. At this point, the Blackhawks are trending toward being the hottest ticket in town once again, especially with how the Bears and Bulls are playing.

The Blackhawks will host the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday at the United Center. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. CST.

The post RECAP: Blackhawks flying high, down Sabres for fourth straight victory appeared first on The Rink.

7:30pm CST
United Center
TV/Radio: NBCSCH/WGN

PROJECTED STARTERS

Chicago – Corey Crawford (7–15–2, SV%: .897, GAA: 3.39)
Buffalo – Carter Hutton (16–18–4, SV%: .911, GAA: 2.82)

TEAM STATISTICS

Power Play
Chicago (21.8%, 11th)
Buffalo (19.1%, 18th)

Penalty Kill
Chicago (72.8%, 31st)
Buffalo (82.5%, 5th)

Shorts for/against
Chicago (32.1, 14th; 35.0, 30th)
Buffalo (32.8, T7th; 32.8, 23rd)

Shooting %
Chicago (10.3%, 8th)
Buffalo (8.6%, 26th)

Faceoff %
Chicago (49.6%, T19th)
Buffalo (48.5%, T23rd)

Avg. height/weight
Chicago 6’1”, 195lbs
Buffalo 6’1” 198lbs

PROJECTED LINES/PAIRINGS

Chicago Blackhawks

Brandon Saad–Jonathan Toews–Patrick Kane

Alex DeBrincat–Dylan Strome–Dominik Kahun

Brendan Perlini–Artem Anisimov–Dylan Sikura

Chris Kunitz–Marcus Kruger–John Hayden

Duncan Keith–Brent Seabrook

Gustav Forsling–Connor Murphy

Slater Koekkoek–Erik Gustafsson

Buffalo Sabres

Jeff Skinner–Jack Eichel–Sam Reinhart

Conor Sheary–Evan Rodrigues–Kyle Okposo

Scott Wilson–Casey Mittelstadt–Jason Pominville

Zemgus Girgensons–Johan Larsson–Tage Thompson

Marco Scandella–Rasmus Ristolainen

Rasmus Dahlin–Zach Bogosian

Matt Hunwick–Brandon Montour

Analysis

A pathetic showing on the west coast trip has found the Blackhawks barely hanging on to playoff hopes. Currently, according to a few outlets, the Blackhawks have less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. Sure, there’s a chance, but it’s almost impossible that they make it into the dance.

That said, backup goaltender Cam Ward is out for 7-10 days, requiring Collin Delia to be recalled from the Rockford IceHogs. It is unclear if Delia will be any time in net, so expect to see a heavy dose of Corey Crawford for the length of Ward’s absence.

The Buffalo Sabres present quite a challenge for the Blackhawks on Thursday night at the United Center. The one-time Atlantic-leading Sabres have come screaming back down to Earth, losing eight of their last ten games. It’s unclear what went wrong, but the Sabres looked like they were finally turning the corner early this season. Now, Buffalo sits 11 points back of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

The top players the Blackhawks need to watch out for on Thursday night are Jack Eichel and Jeff Skinner, who have developed undeniable chemistry this season on Buffalo’s top line. Eichel has 72 points, while Skinner has 58 points and 36 goals for the year. These two can easily dominate the Blackhawks defense, so they will need to be matched-up with appropriately if the Blackhawks want a win on home ice.

Comment below in our live game thread tonight!

And look for the internet’s most robust recap of the game tomorrow morning on the-rink.com.

The post Preview/Game Thread: Blackhawks vs Sabres appeared first on The Rink.

6:00pm CST
KeyBank Center
TV/Radio: NBCSCH/WGN

PROJECTED STARTERS

Chicago – Cam Ward (8–8–4, SV%: .888, GAA: 3.87)
Buffalo – Carter Hutton (15–14–3, SV%: .911, GAA: 2.79)

TEAM STATISTICS

Power Play
Chicago (20.1%, 16th)
Buffalo (16.7%, T23rd)

Penalty Kill
Chicago (74.1%, 31st)
Buffalo (81.9%, 9th)

Shorts for/against
Chicago (31.4, 17th; 35.0, 30th)
Buffalo (32.3, T11th; 32.6, 24th)

Shooting %
Chicago (9.7%, 14th)
Buffalo (8.8%, 25th)

Faceoff %
Chicago (49.9%, 17th)
Buffalo (48.6%, T22nd)

Avg. height/weight
Chicago 6’1”, 197lbs
Buffalo 6’1” 199lbs

PROJECTED LINES/PAIRINGS

Chicago Blackhawks

Drake Caggiula–Jonathan Toews–Patrick Kane

Alex DeBrincat–Dylan Strome–Dominik Kahun

Brandon Saad–David Kampf–Marcus Kruger

Chris Kunitz–Artem Anisimov–John Hayden

Duncan Keith–Brent Seabrook

Carl Dahlstrom–Connor Murphy

Slater Koekkoek–Erik Gustafsson

Buffalo Sabres

Jeff Skinner–Jack Eichel–Sam Reinhart

Conor Sheary–Casey Mittelstadt–Evan Rodrigues

Remi Elie–Vladimir Sobotka–Tage Thompson

Zemgus Girgensons–Johan Larsson–Kyle Okposo

Jake McCabe–Rasmus Ristolainen

Rasmus Dahlin–Zach Bogosian

Marco Scandella–Nathan Beaulieu

Analysis

The Blackhawks return from their week-long break to take on the Buffalo Sabres in Buffalo, New York. Friday’s match up begins a three-game road trip for the Blackhawks, before returning to the United Center on Thursday, February 7th. Friday’s game against Buffalo is the first game of a back-to-back, where the Blackhawks will play in Minnesota on Saturday night against the Wild.

Patrick Kane had a nice all-star weekend playing well in the games (2G, 2A) as well as showing off in the puck control competition, where he was the runner-up to Johnny Gaudreau. On Friday, Kane will return home to Buffalo, New York, where he will have the opportunity to register his 900th career point against his hometown team.

Expect a few lineup changes, notably on the blue line. On Thursday, January 31st, defenseman Henri Jokiharju was sent down to Rockford. It would not be surprising to see the Blackhawks audition defensemen for possible trades as the deadline approaches in the next month.

The Buffalo Sabres have faded of late. In their last 25 games, the Sabres are 8-13-4 which makes them the third-worst team in the NHL since American Thanksgiving. The Sabres have not been the same team that they were in the beginning of the season, where at one point, they led the Atlantic division.

The Sabres are coming off their own back-to-back on Tuesday and Wednesday after taking on the Blue Jackets and Stars on the road. After a big 5-4 win in Columbus on Tuesday, the Sabres were shutout in Dallas 1-0 against the Stars on Wednesday. The Sabres will look to get their momentum going, as Friday’s tilt against the Blackhawks begins a seven-game home-stand for the Sabres.

Comment below in our live game thread tonight!

And look for the internet’s most robust recap of the game tomorrow morning on the-rink.com.

The post Preview/Game Thread: Chicago Blackhawks at Buffalo Sabres appeared first on The Rink.