9:30 p.m. CST
STAPLES Center
TV/Radio: NBCSCH/WGN

PROJECTED STARTERS

Chicago – Corey Crawford (14–18–3, SV%: .908, GAA: 2.94)
Los Angeles – Jonathan Quick (15–22–7, SV%: .890, GAA: 3.31)

TEAM STATISTICS

Power Play
Chicago (20.8 percent, T-11th)
Los Angeles (16.0 percent, 27th)

Penalty Kill
Chicago (72.8 percent, 31st)
Los Angeles (75.1 percent, 29th)

Shorts for/against
Chicago (32.5, 12th; 34.6, 30th)
Los Angeles (28.6, 30th; 31.2, 14th)

Shooting Percentage
Chicago (10.0 percent, Eighth)
Los Angeles (8.4 percent, 28th)

Faceoff Percentage
Chicago (49.5 percent, T-20th)
Los Angeles (50.5 percent, 12th)

Average height and weight
Chicago 6’1”, 195 lbs.
Los Angeles 6’1”, 206 lbs.

PROJECTED LINES/PAIRINGS

Chicago Blackhawks
Brandon Saad–Jonathan Toews–Dylan Sikura
Alex DeBrincat–Dylan Strome–Dominik Kahun
Brendan Perlini–Artem Anisimov–Patrick Kane
Chris Kunitz–David Kampf–Marcus Kruger
Duncan Keith–Erik Gustafsson
Gustav Forsling–Brent Seabrook
Slater Koekkoek–Connor Murphy

Los Angeles Kings
Alex Iafallo–Anze Kopitar–Dustin Brown
Carl Grundstrom–Adrian Kempe–Tyler Toffoli
Kyle Clifford–Jeff Carter–Trevor Lewis
Austin Wagner–Mike Amadio–Jonny Brodzinski
Derek Forbort–Drew Doughty
Alec Martinez–Matt Roy
Sean Walker–Dion Phaneuf

Analysis

The Blackhawks playoff hopes are ever-dwindling as the season enters it’s twilight. The Blackhawks sit seven points out of a playoff position. Although not mathematically eliminated, the Blackhawks would need to win every game from here on out, and hope that the Avalanche, Wild and Coyotes all hit a late season skid. It’s not impossible, but it’s very unlikely that the Blackhawks will be playing in the postseason.

However, the Blackhawks will continue to play with that mindset, and try to win every game down the stretch. The final week of the season begins tonight as the Blackhawks visit the lowly Kings.

The Kings, who sit last in the Western Conference, may be without notable winger Ilya Kovalchuk. Kovalchuk is not hurt, he has been a healthy scratch in many recent games for the Kings. The former-star winger has had a tough first season of his three-year, $18.75 million contract.

The Kings focus as an organization is more likely focused on the NHL Entry Draft in June than the 78th game of a disastrous season for the team. Jack Hughes or Kappo Kakko would be welcomed additions to the Kings lineup. Odds are, the Kings will get a top two pick with their second-to-last record in the entire NHL.

Just because the Kings front office may have switched their focus, the players surely have not. This is the perfect opportunity for a lowly Kings team to more-or-less officially end the Blackhawks playoff dreams. Saturday night’s matchup sets up well for a trap game.

Comment below in our live game thread tonight!

And look for the internet’s most robust recap of the game tomorrow morning on the-rink.com.

The post Preview/Game Thread: Blackhawks at Kings appeared first on The Rink.

The Blackhawks were hoping to build off of their last minute win in Anaheim on Wednesday as they took on the bottom-dwelling Kings. With Drake Caggiula down, Brendan Perlini drew in for his first game after four straight games as a scratch. Corey Crawford also started his second straight game since returning from the IR. The lines were as follows:

Saad – Toews – Kane

DeBrincat – Strome – Kahun

Perlini – Anisimov – Sikura

Kunitz – Kruger – Hayden

Keith – Seabrook

Koekkoek – Gustafsson

Forsling – Murphy

Crawford

First Period:

The game did not begin well for the Blackhawks. A careless too many men penalty sent the Kings to the power play. Soon after going on the power play, a charging Dustin Brown scored on a quality chance to make it 1-0.

A minute later, it was deja vu for the Blackhawks. Dylan Strome tripped Jeff Carter at center ice to give the Kings yet another power play. Late in the man advantage, Adrian Kempe made a beautiful dish back to Sean Walker. Walker ripped a wrist shot that found the twine. Crawford was completely screened on the play by numerous players, so he stood no chance to make the save.

https://twitter.com/CMS_74_/status/1101954781927616517

Just after the midway point of the period, the Blackhawks received their first opportunity on the man advantage. Despite three really good looks for Patrick Kane, the Blackhawks were shut down by Jonathan Quick and the rest of the Kings’ penalty kill.

The Kings however continued to dominate the period. With just under five minutes remaining, Jeff Carter walked up the right wing wall from down low and made a quick pass to Ilya Kovalchuk near the blue line. Kovalchuk fired the puck on net with no hesitation and beat Crawford for his 14th of the season.

https://twitter.com/CMS_74_/status/1101960641701646336

However, the first period wasn’t all bad, despite the horrific first 18+ minutes. With a little different look to the lines, Dylan Strome found Slater Koekkoek at the point with a pass from below the goal line. After receiving the puck, Koekkoek fed Brendan Perlini in the high-slot and Perlini buried the one-timer to give the Blackhawks a sliver of hope heading into intermission. The score was 3-1 Kings after one period.

After sitting out the last 4 games, Brendan Perlini gets his 1st goal since New Years Day at Notre Dame Stadium!

Catch the rest of the game here: https://t.co/0coaeUNAJw pic.twitter.com/ymj3kYUIuD

— Blackhawks Talk (@NBCSBlackhawks) March 2, 2019

Second Period:

After a miserable first period, the Blackhawks came out of the intermission with some momentum. As the Kings’ defense went for a change, Crawford found a breaking Perlini with a nice feed. Perlini had a breakaway from the blue line in and beat Quick for his second goal of the day and to make it a 3-2 score.

Make that goals for Brendan Perlini! Crow gets the assist and the #Blackhawks are back in this game!

: https://t.co/FIjSLYnCm6 pic.twitter.com/Guft4b5Wnw

— Blackhawks Talk (@NBCSBlackhawks) March 2, 2019

It was easy to tell the Blackhawks were controlling play. With about 13 minutes remaining, Gustav Forsling avoided a check and got the puck to Chris Kunitz. Kunitz found Connor Murphy through the neutral zone with momentum. As soon as Murphy skated over the blue line, he ripped a frozen rope, top shelf on Quick to tie the game at three.

Sneaky Murphy#Blackhawks pic.twitter.com/eySk2Ab13V

— Chicago Blackhawks (@NHLBlackhawks) March 2, 2019

Just when the Blackhawks felt good about tying the game, a 2-on-1 rush by the Kings ended with Kempe going top shelf on Crawford giving LA the 4-3 lead. The goal came just over a minute after Murphy’s tally. Erik Gustafsson was caught down low on the play, resulting in the 2-on-1 opportunity for the home team.

https://twitter.com/CMS_74_/status/1101970887283302401

With about three minutes left in the period, the Blackhawks were given their second power play of the day after Murphy was boarded by Tyler Toffoli. The Blackhawks were able to move the puck well, but could not get a clean look at the net. The visitors could not take advantage of the opportunity.

As the Kings’ penalty expired, Tyler Toffoli had a breakaway from the blue line in and as he shot the puck, his stick broke. The Blackhawks dodged a late bullet and went into the dressing room with the score 4-3 after two periods.

Third Period:

The early part of the final frame was dictated by high-paced back-and-forth action. However, the Kings made it a two goal lead after Brendan Leipsic hammered home his 6th goal of the season. It would have been a tough save for Crawford on a shot that should have been a rocket, but came in as a changeup and just slipped in under the crossbar.

The fifth goal for the Kings deflated the Blackhawks. Their earlier energy disappeared and the Kings did just enough to keep the Blackhawks from regaining that momentum.

With under two minutes remaining, the Kings would strike again. After a Duncan Keith turnover, Anze Kopitar setup Dustin Brown in the slot. Brown ripped a shot top-shelf on Crawford for his second goal of the day.

Despite a few chances for the Blackhawks in the third, they could not solve Quick. The Kings captured their first win after ten-straight losses and beat the Blackhawks, 6-3.

Quick Hits:

• The Early Bird Gets the Worm: The Blackhawks came out flat in the first period and it really showed. The Kings jumped out to a 3-0 lead early and, although the Blackhawks tied it, they were playing from behind the whole time, only to fall 6-3. Not a good look against the worst team in the West.
• Missing Caggiula: Drake Caggiula’s presence was missed in this game. Not only his energy that he brings playing with Toews and Kane, but his absence threw the chemistry of the lines off for the whole game. 
• Playoffs?: The Blackhawks’ loss critically affects their chance at the playoffs. The Blackhawks are five points out with three teams to jump for the final wild card spot. Arizona has been playing well, and the Stars and Wild are still holding on, further complicating the Blackhawks path to a playoff spot.

The Blackhawks return to action on Sunday, March 3rd as they head to San Jose to take on the Sharks. Puck drop is at 9:00pm CST.

The post RECAP: Kings Snap Streak, Beat Blackhawks 6-3 appeared first on The Rink.

3:00pm CST

STAPLES Center

TV/Radio: NBCSCH/WGN

PROJECTED STARTERS

Chicago – Cam Ward (14–10–4, SV%: .893, GAA: 3.71)

Los Angeles – Jonathan Quick (11–17–6, SV%: .891, GAA: 3.31)

TEAM STATISTICS

Power Play

Chicago (22.3%, 7th)

Los Angeles (14.8%, 29th)

Penalty Kill

Chicago (73.3%, 31st)

Los Angeles (74.7%, 30th)

Shorts for/against

Chicago (32.1, 13th; 35.1, 30th)

Los Angeles (28.6, 29th; 31.3, 14th)

Shooting %

Chicago (10.4%, 8th)

Los Angeles (8.2%, 30th)

Faceoff %

Chicago (49.7%, 19th)

Los Angeles (50.2%, T14th)

Avg. height/weight

Chicago 6’1”, 195lbs

Los Angeles 6’2” 206lbs

PROJECTED LINES/PAIRINGS

Chicago Blackhawks

Drake Caggiula–Jonathan Toews–Patrick Kane

Alex DeBrincat–Dylan Strome–Dominik Kahun

Brandon Saad–Artem Anisimov–Dylan Sikura

Chris Kunitz–Marcus Kruger–John Hayden

Duncan Keith–Brent Seabrook

Carl Dahlstrom–Connor Murphy

Slater Koekkoek–Erik Gustafsson

Los Angeles Kings

Alex Iafallo–Anze Kopitar–Dustin Brown

Ilya Kovalchuk–Jeff Carter–Tyler Toffoli

Bredan Leipsic–Adrian Kempe–Jonny Brodzinski

Kyle Clifford–Trevor Lewis–Austin Wagner

Derek Forbort–Drew Doughty

Dion Phaneuf–Matt Roy

Sean Walker–Paul Ladue

Analysis

Following their thrilling victory on Wednesday night, the Blackhawks travel slightly north to take on the Los Angeles Kings. Wednesday night’s Ducks/Blackhawks battle saw the Blackhawks playing a more offensively-challenged Anaheim team. In today’s action, the Blackhawks will square off against a Los Angeles Kings’ team that, in many categories, is only a little better than the Ducks. Today presents a great opportunity for the Blackhawks, versus an opponent that is far less potent offensively than they are.

A few big positives from Wednesday included Patrick Kane further extending his incredible point streak, as well as the return of Corey Crawford. Overall, Crawford played well, but he is still re-gaining his feet after missing significant time. 

The Kings, for the most part, stood pat at the trade deadline earlier in the week. Instead of trying to sell assets such as Jonathan Quick and Jeff Carter, the Kings held on to their prized possessions and continued to ride it out. 

LA comes into today’s game losers of 10 straight games, setting themselves up for a nice pick in June’s draft, potentially landing either Kappo Kakko or Jack Hughes. The Kings are an aging team with potentially greater cap issues than those facing the Blackhawks.

Any slip-up could prove fatal to the Hawks’ fading playoff chances (5 points out, with 3 teams in the way). So, this is essentially a must-win game for Chicago.

Comment below in our live game thread this afternoon!

And look for the internet’s most robust recap of the game tomorrow morning on the-rink.com.

The post Preview/Game Thread: Blackhawks at Kings appeared first on The Rink.

7:30pm CST/5:30pm PST
United Center
TV/Radio: NHL Network, NBCSCH, FS-W/WGN

PROJECTED STARTERS

Chicago – Corey Crawford (4-6-0 W/L, SV%: 0.911 GAA: 2.76)
Los Angeles – Peter Budaj (0-1-0 W/L, SV%: 0.833 GAA: 5.50)

TEAM STATISTICS

Power Play
Chicago (13.8%, 28th)
Los Angeles (14.3, T-26th)

Penalty Kill
Chicago (74.6%, 26th)
Los Angeles (78.4%, 19th)

Shorts for/against
Chicago (32.5, T-9th, 33.1, 24th)
Los Angeles (27.6, 29th, 30.2, 9th)

Shooting %
Chicago (8.4%, 26th)
Los Angeles (7.4%, 30th)

Faceoff %
Chicago (49.9%, T-17^th)
Los Angeles (52.3%, 4^th)

Avg. height/weight
Chicago 6’1”, 195lbs
Los Angeles 6’1” 206lbs

PROJECTED LINES/PAIRINGS

Chicago Blackhawks

Nick Schmaltz–Jonathan Toews–Patrick Kane
Alex DeBrincat–David Kampf–Dominik Kahun
Brandon Saad–Artem Anisimov–John Hayden
Chris Kunitz–Marcus Kruger–Andreas Martinsen
Duncan Keith–Brent Seabrook
Erik Gustafsson–Henri Jokiharju
Brandon Manning–Gustav Forsling

Los Angeles Kings

Alex Iafallo–Anze Kopitar–Dustin Brown
Ilya Kovalchuk–Jeff Carter–Tyler Toffoli
Carl Hagelin–Michael Amadio–Trevor Lewis
Kyle Clifford–Adrian Kempe–Nate Thompson
Derek Forbort–Drew Doughty
Jake Muzzin–Alec Martinez
Dion Phaneuf–Oscar Fantenberg

Analysis

Chicago ended an eight-game losing streak, shutting out the Blues on Wednesday, and look to start a winning streak against a struggling Kings team.

Willie Desjardins, hired as head coach after the firing of John Stevens, has the Kings coming in on a three-game losing streak. Los Angeles managed a measly two goals in those three losses.

The offensive hindered Kings are led by forward Ilya Kovalchuk, signed this summer after a stint in the KHL, with five goals and fourteen points.

Do not adjust your televisions, that was a power play goal on Wednesday. Blues’ defenseman Jay Bouwmeester did kick the puck into his own net, but they all count the same for the Hawks. Brent Seabrook was credited with his third goal of the season, and all things considered, the Hawks’ power play will take it.

Corey Crawford is expected in net tonight. Crawford played excellent in his first shutout of the season. Los Angeles will really on goalie Peter Budaj tonight, both Jonathan Quick and Jack Campbell are out with injuries, and stopped only 15 of the 19 shots he faced on Tuesday.

Comment below in our live game thread tonight!

And look for the internet’s most robust recap of the game tomorrow morning on the-rink.com. 

The post Preview/Game Thread: Blackhawks vs. Kings appeared first on The Rink.

According to ESPN (I know, but they’re the only site with a hardware tracker), Vasilevskiy leads the early Vezina race, followed by Hellebuyck, Quick, Rinne, Bobrovsky, and Crawford. I’m going to take a look at these six net minders in comparison to both each other and the league as a whole using some lesser-known statistics.

Below is a combination of advanced and traditional goalie statistics where the value is followed by the overall league rank in parenthesis:

Stats from Jan 8

The Fancy Numbers

Before we dive in, I’ll contextualize some of these less-than-self-explanatory stats.

HDSA%: High Danger Shot Attempt % – the percentage of shots a goaltender faces that are taken from the “high danger zone”

LDSA%: Low Danger Shot Attempt % – the percentage of shots a goaltender faces that are taken from the “low danger zone”

HDSv%: High Danger Save % -a goaltender’s save percentage on shot attempts from the high danger zone (Read: Goaltender ceiling, saving shots you wouldn’t necessarily expect them to)

LDSv%: Low Danger Save % – a goaltender’s save percentage on shot attempts from the low danger zone (Read: Goaltender floor, saving the shots you would expect them to save)

dSv%: Differential Save % – a goaltender’s save percentage minus their expected save percentage (xSv%) calculated based on their HDSA%, MDSA%, LDSA%, and the league average weighted save percentages. (Positive numbers indicate the goaltender is performing better than you would expect the average goaltender to given their shot quality distribution against them; negative would indicate the inverse).

GSAA: Goals Saved Above Average – total goals allowed minus league average save percentage*number of shots that goalie has faced. (Positive numbers indicate the goalie is saving more shot than you would expect the average goaltender to given the number of shot they have faced; negative would indicate the inverse)

Several years ago the guys over at War-On-Ice developed the danger level save percentage stat, which takes into account shot location to create three separate save percentages by danger level and an overall weighted save percentage based on league average numbers. If you take a look at the graphic you’ll see shots are broken down into high danger chances (blue – the crease and slot), medium danger chances (pink – inside the “house” and the high slot), and low danger chances (yellow – the points, the half wall, and below the goal line). Essentially, this method uses the weighted distribution of shot quality to create an expected save percentage based on league average numbers, or xSv%. In the table above, you’ll notice I did not include xSv%, but rather dSv%, which is the difference between a goaltenders actual save percentage and their expected save percentage based on the distribution of the quality of chances they face.

Now if you’re thinking “but…but…this doesn’t seem very scientific! A high danger scoring chance can come from lots of places on the ice”, you’re probably right. A Schmaltz to Kane one timer from the end boards or a Shea Weber slapper with a screened goalie are about as high danger an opportunity as you can get; but would be considered “low danger” scoring attempts using this shot distribution method. If you want to think about it like that then HDSv% is a more “valuable” stat because shots from the slot are almost always high danger while shots from low danger areas are not going to be truly low danger the same percentage of the time. Which is why your elite goaltenders will have good league-relative HDSv%s but not necessarily good league relative LDSv%s.

So it’s not perfect, but generally it is a better way to contextualize shots than weighing all shots as equally dangerous because generally a shot from the crease will be more dangerous than a flipper from the point. Generally. But I digress.

Save Makers and Vezina Fakers

If we only evaluate the “traditional” goaltender metrics, (Wins, Sv%, GAA) the ESPN trophy list would seem about right, but if we look deeper at the advanced number, the story is a little different. I provided the distribution of high and low danger shot percentages for each goalie as a sort of measuring stick. These stats are ones that the goaltender cannot influence, but rather provide context for the situations their defense puts them in and distribution shot quality they typically have to face.

Connor Hellebuyck has received a lot of praise recently, which has brought his name into the conversation for the Vezina, but is it deservingly so? Hellebuyck has faced the fewest high danger scoring attempts in the entire league. On top of that, Hellebuyck’s high danger save percentage is below the league average and the lowest of any of the other Vezina candidates. These numbers point to the fact that the ‘peg defense is able to shield Hellebuyck from facing high danger scoring chances being exposed. If teams can figure out how to penetrate the Jet’s D and get some quality scoring chances off, Hellebuyck will be poised to topple like a house of cards.

In fact, the story gets even worse for Hellebuyck when we look at differential save percentage and goals saved above average. Given the relative ease of the shot quality distribution Hellebuyck faces, we would actually expect the average goaltender to have a save percentage .35 points higher than Hellebuyck. Hellebuyck is the only Vezina candidate who has a negative differential save percentage, while all six others are in the league’s top ten in dSv%. Furthermore, based on Hellebuyck’s GSAA, we would expect the league’s average goaltender to have allowed 2.57 fewer goals through this point in the season based only off shot totals, not shot quality distribution. This means that given the number of randomly distributed chances (and likely a more difficult workload given Hellebuyck’s HDSA%) an average goalie would be outperforming Hellebuyck by just under three goals so far this season. I think the advanced numbers show its clear that Hellebuyck does not deserve to be in the Vezina conversation regardless of how good the Jet’s D in front of him is. 

Not All Shots are Created Equal

Of the six candidates, you’ll observe that only Crawford and Bobrovsky are on teams that allow high danger shot attempts at not only a higher rate than the league average, but in the top five highest rates of HDSA in the league. Not only are Crawford and Bobrovsky facing significantly more A+ chances, but also have the two best high danger save percentages of all the Vezina candidates (second and third best in the league respectively). This tells us that these goalies are making more quality stops and bailing their team out much more frequently than any of the other contender, something any halfway Hawk fan could have told you about Crow this season.

Because of this, Crawford and Bob have two of the three highest dSv% in the league, meaning given the amount of high danger chances they face, we would expect them to make far fewer saves. However, despite only facing the 29^th most high danger shot attempts, (thus raising his xSv%) Vasilevskiy has the best dSv%, boasting the second highest low danger save percentage and eighth highest high danger save percentage. Moreover, Vasilevskiy also has the highest GSAA by a wide margin, saving 15 more goals than the average goalie would be expected to in his position. These contextual numbers point to Vasilevskiy being the obvious front-runner for the Vezina with Crawford and Bobrovsky both close behind in the hunt.

Thanks for reading and I’d love to hear your thoughts below.

Dan

The post Contenders and Pretenders: An Analytical Look at the Early Vezina Race appeared first on The Rink.