Fans talked a lot over the course of the 2019–20 regular season about the Avalanche’s mediocre-to-awful power play execution and what changes needed to be made in order to improve it. Whether the team relied too much on one-timers from Nathan MacKinnon in the left face-off circle, whether their passing lanes were too predictable, whether the second unit was underperforming or whether special teams simply needed to put more pucks on net were all issues discussed and debated as the calendar year turned from 2019 to 2020 and the Avs’ power play conversion rate…well, let’s just say it did not look much better.

Nathan MacKinnon fires a one-timer. (Photograph courtesy of Sports Illustrated)

The Avalanche ended their regular season with a power play percentage of 19.1, while the other top three teams in their division—the Jets, Stars and Blues—finished with percentages of 20.5, 21.1 and 24.3, respectively. The differential is not massive, although St. Louis ranks third in regular season power play conversions, and yet for a team currently sitting near the top of Western Conference power rankings and one that has made such a strong run this year for Ole Stanley, you would think their power play numbers would be a little higher.

But should you?

Yeah. You probably should.

On the other hand, I think most of us would agree that single statistics rarely tell the whole story.

Colorado is currently third in the league in scoring differential, behind only Boston and Tampa Bay, and despite much anxiety regarding the goaltending situation, Philipp Grubauer and Pavel Francouz have brought their A game and kept the Avalanche’s save percentage hovering around .913. While Colorado did go 1/5 on the power play in their postseason exhibition game against Minnesota, they also went 18/80 on power play conversions from January through March, which puts their power play percentage over the second half of the season right around .225. And, there are some things stats just cannot track, like whether MacKinnon goes on a record-breaking 13-game point streak or just how good Cale Makar’s defensive playmaking abilities are going to be.

Oh, or if they manage to score a game-winning goal with 0.1 seconds left in the game.

Thanks, Naz.

So, for a little bit of postseason inspiration in the midst of anxiety surrounding Colorado’s special teams, let’s take a look at some teams who managed to grab the Cup in recent years while underperforming on the power play.

In the 2011–12 season, Los Angeles finished with a power play conversion rate of 16.96 when the league average that year was 17.31. When they won the Stanley Cup again in the 2013–14 season, their percentage was even worse at 15.14 when the league average was 17.89. But, they had a killer center in Anze Kopitar, who led the playoffs in points both years, as well as a top-scoring defenseman in Drew Doughty and a goaltending performance for the books from Jonathan Quick.

The Chicago Blackhawks also struggled on the power play in both of their most recent Stanley Cup finals. In 2012–13, their power play percentage came in at 16.67 when the league average was 18.82, and in the 2014–15 season, it was a little better, but still not great, at 17.69 when the league average was 18.66. But, they also had star forwards Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, solid netminding from Corey Crawford and exceptional defensive performances from the likes of Duncan Keith, not to mention some good young draft picks contributing like Teuvo Teravainen.

So, what is it going to take for the Avalanche? And how much need is there to worry?

Clearly, the team has a lot of the ingredients it takes to win. Blue line depth, all-star forwards, two goaltenders who are both reliable enough that Bednar does not even decide who to play until the very last minute. Five on five, Colorado looks pretty darn good.

But five on four, or even five on three…

Maybe special teams need to force the puck to MacKinnon less often. Maybe Colorado needs to shoot more and stop looking for that extra short pass. As one Twitter user suggested, maybe the Avalanche could just…refuse to take the advantage?

Yeah alright, that is not an option.

But, while I certainly hope the Avs figure out a way to fix their special teams, I have also been a little less worried knowing that previous teams have snatched the Stanley Cup with worse regular season power play performances.

On the other hand, we probably should not let our guards down. Playoff hockey is never quite like regular season hockey, and in this regard, 2020 is no exception.

The post How successful can the Colorado Avalanche be with a mediocre power play? appeared first on The Rink.

They fell to the Philadelphia Flyers 6-3, in what wasn’t the most encouraging return. However, the fundamentals of that game were there, and it can be an easy write-off to rust from the break. I went into that game anticipating a loss, as the Flyers had played the night before. They had the advantage of an extra game to get back into playing and were likely hungry for a home-ice win after falling to the Penguins on the road.

The next four games on the trip were a showcase of skill and of the intelligence of the off-season acquisitions for the Avs. Each game played out differently, but they came out on top in all of them – which is exactly what a playoff-contending team needs to do. There aren’t going to be any easy wins down this next stretch.

The game in Buffalo was, in a word, a blowout. The Avalanche won 6-1, with the second line deciding it was their night to show off what they’re capable of. The theme for this season has been depth scoring, but this road trip proved yet again that the key components in a team aren’t always the top line. That storyline followed through to the 4-1 win over the Senators, with the top line only contributing one assist.

The 2-1 win against the Blue Jackets marked an exciting development for the club, as it was the first time this season that the Avs managed to win after trailing going into the third period. The level of determination and push they showed late in the third period is encouraging going into the playoff push and beyond. And, finally, the 3-2 win against the Wild had the team fighting for a messy victory through a chippy game, plagued by minor injuries to André Burakovsky, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, and Nazem Kadri.

Standouts and takeaways

Let’s talk goaltending, first, as it’s been on my mind for these last four games. The Flyers game was not Philipp Grubauer’s best, as he allowed six past him. The guys on the ice in front of him weren’t playing a defensive game whatsoever, but you do rely on the goalie to make those crucial stops. The goaltender questions from before the break were coming back – Was Grubauer going to be enough going into the playoffs?

He answered back. In his next three starts, he only allowed one goal per game. While one of those may have been soft, it’s hard to complain when he was locked in for the rest of the game. We saw him tighten things up in the playoffs run last season and can only hope he continues to do the same now.

What a night for Grubi.

31 Saves
.969 Save Percentage#GoAvsGo https://t.co/vFAwtFjSDQ

— x – Colorado Avalanche (@Avalanche) February 9, 2020

Pavel Francouz allowed two goals in the game he started, but he also made the high-pressure stops that he needed to. If Grubauer continues this stretch of play, I don’t expect to see the two playing tandem, but Francouz remains a solid backup. With the number of games the Avs are playing these next two months, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see more of him.

Now, onto the aforementioned depth scoring. With the exception of Nathan MacKinnon, the top line wasn’t at its best during this stretch and the rest of the team stepped up. The second line stands out especially, seeing as they combined for three of the six goals against the Sabres and assisted on a fourth. After a stretch of iffy games from Burakovsky, he had a four-point night against Buffalo and broke his personal scoring record. He now sits at 40 points, with his previous record falling at 38. Valeri Nichushkin and Kadri both netted two goals during the trip.

Aside from Burakovsky setting a new career-high, Cale Makar also had a successful road trip. He became the first rookie to hit the 40 point mark this season during the game against the Senators. Things remain tight between him and Quinn Hughes in the race for the Calder. Regardless of the eventual outcome of that, the Avalanche are still lucky to have his talent on the team.

Cale Makar (12-28—40) of the @Avalanche is the first rookie to collect 40 points this season. #NHLStats pic.twitter.com/yZNadK0tbZ

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) February 7, 2020

So what’s next?

The Avalanche have a five-game home stretch coming up, which is then followed by an insane schedule in March, with a game every two days. There isn’t a lot of time for rest, but there also isn’t a lot of time for the guys to get rusty. Barring any meltdown, playoffs seem to be a sure bet. The race now is for the top of the Central Division, as the Avalanche are three points behind the Blues with two games in-hand.

In basic terms, the Avalanche need to keep winning. They need to keep winning the way that they did over this road-trip – Fighting through any type of game thrown their way.

The post Avalanche battling for first in the Central Division appeared first on The Rink.

6:30pm CST
United Center
TV/Radio: NBCSCH/WGN

PROJECTED STARTERS

Chicago – Cam Ward (14–9–4, SV%: .894, GAA: 3.69)
Colorado – Semyon Varlamov (16–15–8, SV%: .911, GAA: 2.79)

TEAM STATISTICS

Power Play
Chicago (21.7%, 11th)
Colorado (21.9%, 8th)

Penalty Kill
Chicago (73.5%, 31st)
Colorado (77.3%, 26th)

Shorts for/against
Chicago (31.7, 17th; 35.4, 30th)
Colorado (32.8, 7th; 31.3, T16th)

Shooting %
Chicago (10.6%, 7th)
Colorado (9.9%, 12th)

Faceoff %
Chicago (49.8%, 18th)
Colorado (48.4%, T25th)

Avg. height/weight
Chicago 6’1”, 195lbs
Colorado 6’1” 201lbs

PROJECTED LINES/PAIRINGS

Chicago Blackhawks

Drake Caggiula–Jonathan Toews–Patrick Kane

Alex DeBrincat–Dylan Strome–Dominik Kahun

Brandon Saad–Artem Anisimov–Dylan Sikura

Chris Kunitz–Marcus Kruger–John Hayden

Duncan Keith–Brent Seabrook

Carl Dahlstrom–Connor Murphy

Slater Koekkoek–Erik Gustafsson

Colorado Avalanche

Alexander Kerfoot–Nathan MacKinnon–Sven Andrighetto

Matthew Nieto–Carl Soderberg–Mikko Rantanen

Gabriel Landeskog–Tyson Jost–Matt Calvert

A.J. Greer–Andrew Agozzino–J.T. Compher

Samuel Girard–Erik Johnson

Ryan Graves–Tyson Barrie

Patrik Nemeth–Nikita Zadorov

Analysis

After nearly blowing a 4-1 lead in Detroit, the Blackhawks return home for two critical games at the United Center on Friday and Sunday. First, the Blackhawks host the Avalanche who, with a win, they will pass for a spot in the wild card standings. Sunday also proves meaningful, as the first wild card team, the Dallas Stars, come to town.

Patrick Kane extended his point streak to 18 games in Detroit. His overtime winner capped off a two-goal performance, which saw his assist streak come to an end. Nonetheless, Patrick Kane continues to make a great case for MVP this season, especially if the Blackhawks squeak into the playoffs.

The Colorado Avalanche come into Friday’s game with momentum, after defeating the first place Winnipeg Jets 7-1. The Avalanche hope to bring that momentum to the United Center on Friday night to fend off the red-hot Blackhawks from jumping them in the standings. The Avalanche have won three of their last four games after losing eight straight games dating back to January 21st.

The Avalanche’s top line has been split up since the early part of the season. Once upon a time, Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen were three of the hottest players in the league. Now, despite still being very good, none of the players are playing together on a line as Colorado has tried jump-starting their team after their awful cold streak.

Comment below in our live game thread tonight!

And look for the internet’s most robust recap of the game tomorrow morning on the-rink.com.

The post Preview/Game Thread: Blackhawks vs Avalanche appeared first on The Rink.