After eliminating everyone’s favorite to take the Stanley Cup last spring, the Tampa Bay Lightning, in a punishing four-game sweep, then giving eventual conference champions Boston a bit of a scuffle, the Blue Jackets were supposed to regress, and regress mightily without the two Russian superstars.

But, then a funny thing happened.

In spite of those losses—and a spate of injuries to remaining key players—the Blue Jackets sit today at 81 points with 70 games played and in the second wild card spot, and on their current pace over a full 82 games would finish with about 94 points. Now, there are three teams vying for that second wild card spot (including Columbus), but for the sake of argument, let’s say they stay in that spot.

By comparison, last season, Columbus also finished in the second wild card spot, but with 98 points. Hmmm. So, theoretically at least, the subtraction of $21 million per year worth of Russian talent has cost the Blue Jackets four points. Additionally, that is with fairly lengthy injuries to Seth Jones (who has played 56 out of 70 games), Josh Anderson (26 out of 70), Ryan Murray (27 out of 70) and Cam Atkinson (44 out of 70).

Wait a minute, how does this happen?

Well, there are likely a number of factors, including the possibility that the Eastern Conference is just not as good this year, or that other Blue Jackets players over performed relative to their average seasonal output. Or, they have just been crazy lucky this year. The first is plausible, the second is unlikely. The third may be because you make your own luck.

By specific and meaningful metrics, even without Panarin and Bobrovsky, the Blue Jackets have done some things well this season. For one, shots versus shots against, where Columbus is sixth in the league at +2.6 per game. Second is the team’s 1,060 blocked shots, good for fifth in the league. Their penalty kill stands at 81.7%, placing 12th in the league. And, perhaps even more important, the squad has totaled just 458 penalty minutes, the second fewest in the league.

Those are all things that help keep the puck out of your net, which is important when you have gone from the likes of Bobrovsky in net to Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins.

At this point, you might think we are going to drop some sneaky good offensive numbers for Columbus, but not really. In fact, the Blue Jackets were not an overly productive offensive team this year.

But then let’s go back to the goalies.

Korpisalo started out the season as the heir apparent, and was somewhat up and down, but good enough you keep the Blue Jackets in the postseason picture or close. Then, Korpisalo got hurt in a late-December game against Chicago, thrusting Latvian rookie Merzlikins into the starting role. And that was at that point that even diehard Blue Jackets fans thought the team had finally hit its high-water mark for the season.

But, again, that is not how it worked out.

It remains to be seen how good Merzlikins is and will be over his NHL career, but his numbers for the year (in a relatively limited sample size) are compelling: 13–9–8, .923 save percentage, 2.35 goals against average and five shutouts in 31 games started. For that matter, Korpisalo’s overall numbers are not terrible, either, at 19–12–5, a .911 save percentage and a 2.60 goals against average.

And one thing is certain: when Korpisalo went down, the Blue Jackets circled the wagons around Merzlikins, in whose first start after the Korpisalo injury, the team blocked 24 shots to the opponent’s 10 (a 4–1 Columbus victory over Florida). Two nights later, on the road in Boston no less, the Blue Jackets blocked 15 shots to the Bruins’ two for another win.

That’s the how, but the real story is the why—which it can be argued is due to the leadership of the team: Jones, David Savard, Boone Jenner, Nick Foligno, Pierre Luc Dubois, Anderson and Zach Werenski—all big, physical players who are tough to play against and seemingly will do anything to win, and who are in tight lockstep with head coach John Tortorella.

And credit also has to go to General Manager Jarmo Kekalainen, who has either gone out and acquired or retained those players.

The same physical willingness that has helped carry the Blue Jackets this year, in spite of significant challenges, is the one that helped them dominate Tampa Bay last April. That is a quality that did not decrease with the losses of Panarin and Bobrovsky, and it suggests that the Blue Jackets’ system of player acquisition and on-ice play is one that can overcome temporary adversity—serving the organization well, if not this year, then in seasons to come.

We will be back with more on the Columbus Blue Jackets—with or without actual hockey. Thanks for reading; sign in, comment below and please follow @TheRinkColumbus. Stay healthy, everybody!

The post Season or no season: Columbus Blue Jackets have much to be happy about appeared first on The Rink.

As big Lehner fans and the progenitors of the #PayRobin hashtag, we were also quick to cry foul—perhaps temporarily forgetting the true nature of contract negotiations in the NHL, and what’s most likely at work here.

Go ahead #Blackhawks front office: bollocks up re-signing Lehner and it’ll be the deserved END of some careers, while his will go on elsewhere.

— The Amazing Rando (@jaeckel) January 10, 2020

First, it’s all a negotiation.

As much as we want to see Lehner in Chicago long-term, GMs (for the most part) and agents (completely) are not in the business of fulfilling fan narratives. If I’m Lehner’s agent, my job is to get my client the most money and term on his next deal (because that’s also how I make my money) and hopefully in a situation where my client can thrive, win playoff games, and get endorsement deals. Period.

So that said, why wouldn’t I use Sergei Bobrovsky’s 8-year, $80 million contract as a starting point in my conversations with Stan Bowman? Because it’s not nice? Lehner is, fact, going to get paid this summer like he’s one of the top 10 goalies in the NHL—because he is one of them.

All that said, that’s the high end of the market. And if you’re Stan Bowman, you want to frame this negotiation by starting out at the low end of the market—say the deal we heard was initially offered.

And through negotiation, you likely end up somewhere in the middle, which would be about $7-7.5 million per for 5-6 years. Seems reasonable.

“But, but, you can trade Lehner. He doesn’t want to stay in Chicago anyway.”

We believe—and we’ve heard—Lehner wants to stay in Chicago. You don’t want to believe us or our sources? Listen to Lehner then:

Robin Lehner on whether he's open to discussing contract extension with #Blackhawks in-season.

He also said he's not interested in taking a discount, but doesn't want to be overpaid either: "I want to gain some respect that I think I deserve." pic.twitter.com/q0ZnMno1FC

— Charlie Roumeliotis (@CRoumeliotis) January 10, 2020

No, he’s not going to give the Hawks a hometown discount, nor should he. Can the Hawks trade Lehner for a bucket of pucks at the deadline?

Sure, and then you’re left with Colin Delia, Kevin Lankinen and the shell of Corey Crawford (if he doesn’t retire anyway) next year—and going forward. Unless you decide at some point to pay a top goalie—who wants to be in Chicago—the going rate for his services. And you already have that guy. Let’s be logical, mmmm-kay?

To hesitate on this would be front office malpractice. But, in all likelihood, the Hawks are going about this the right way, for now, even if at the risk of offending Lehner. It’s a negotiation. And it’s between the Hawks and Lehner’s agent. Not just the Hawks and Lehner.

And certainly, the situation can change—the two parties can move toward each other and come together in the middle of the range outlined above—which seems to make a lot of sense. And there is time yet for that to happen.

Or one side or the other can get angry and shut it down, allowing Lehner to go to UFA this summer, or trading him or his rights before then. And that’s the time to panic.

Because #PayRobin is better than the alternative.

What do you think? Sign in and comment below.

Photoshop courtesy of Jeff Osborn / Photograph courtesy of NHL.com

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7:30pm CST
United Center
TV/Radio: NBCSCH/WGN

PROJECTED STARTERS

Chicago – Cam Ward (12–8–4, SV%: .898, GAA: 3.60)
Columbus – Sergei Bobrovsky (23–17–1, SV%: .903, GAA: 2.90)

TEAM STATISTICS

Power Play
Chicago (20.8%, 14th)
Columbus (16.1%, 25th)

Penalty Kill
Chicago (73.4%, 31st)
Columbus (84.5%, 2nd)

Shorts for/against
Chicago (31.5, 18th; 35.4, 30th)
Columbus (31.8, 15th; 29.9, 8th)

Shooting %
Chicago (10.3%, 8th)
Columbus (10.1%, 10th)

Faceoff %
Chicago (49.6%, T17th)
Columbus (49.6%, T17th)

Avg. height/weight
Chicago 6’1”, 195lbs
Columbus 6’1” 198lbs

PROJECTED LINES/PAIRINGS

Chicago Blackhawks

Drake Caggiula–Jonathan Toews–Patrick Kane

Alex DeBrincat–Dylan Strome–Dominik Kahun

Brandon Saad–Marcus Kruger–Dylan Sikura

Brendan Perlini–Artem Anisimov–John Hayden

Duncan Keith–Brent Seabrook

Carl Dahlstrom–Connor Murphy

Slater Koekkoek–Erik Gustafsson

Columbus Blue Jackets

Artemi Panarin–Pierre-Luc Dubois–Cam Atkinson

Nick Foligno–Boone Jenner–Josh Anderson

Anthony Duclair–Alexander Wennberg–Oliver Bjorkstrand

Lukas Sedlak–Riley Nash–Markus Hannikainen

Ryan Murray–Seth Jones

Zach Werenski–David Savard

Scott Harrington–Markus Nutivaara

Analysis

The Blackhawks returned to their winning ways on Thursday night as they scored five unanswered goals to beat the New Jersey Devils 5-2. The Blackhawks look to make it two-straight wins as they welcome the Columbus Blue Jackets to the United Center for a rare Saturday night home game.

Patrick Kane has continued his sensational play this season with a goal and two assists on Thursday night. Look for Patrick Kane to continue his 16-game point streak tonight against their talented Eastern Conference opponent.

The story swirling around the Blue Jackets coming to town is the return of former fan-favorite Artemi Panarin to Chicago. With free agency looming, many Blackhawks fans are hoping that “the Bread Man” will return to the team where he started his NHL career just a few short years ago.

The Blue Jackets are a strong team. Their defense is arguably one of the best in the league, and they have talent up and down their entire lineup. This will certainly present a tough task for the playoff-hopeful Blackhawks. The Blue Jackets may be all out for a Stanley Cup this season, especially with Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky destined to hit the free agent market this offseason.

Comment below in our live game thread tonight!

And look for the internet’s most robust recap of the game tomorrow morning on the-rink.com.

The post Preview/Game Thread: Blackhawks vs Blue Jackets appeared first on The Rink.

According to ESPN (I know, but they’re the only site with a hardware tracker), Vasilevskiy leads the early Vezina race, followed by Hellebuyck, Quick, Rinne, Bobrovsky, and Crawford. I’m going to take a look at these six net minders in comparison to both each other and the league as a whole using some lesser-known statistics.

Below is a combination of advanced and traditional goalie statistics where the value is followed by the overall league rank in parenthesis:

Stats from Jan 8

The Fancy Numbers

Before we dive in, I’ll contextualize some of these less-than-self-explanatory stats.

HDSA%: High Danger Shot Attempt % – the percentage of shots a goaltender faces that are taken from the “high danger zone”

LDSA%: Low Danger Shot Attempt % – the percentage of shots a goaltender faces that are taken from the “low danger zone”

HDSv%: High Danger Save % -a goaltender’s save percentage on shot attempts from the high danger zone (Read: Goaltender ceiling, saving shots you wouldn’t necessarily expect them to)

LDSv%: Low Danger Save % – a goaltender’s save percentage on shot attempts from the low danger zone (Read: Goaltender floor, saving the shots you would expect them to save)

dSv%: Differential Save % – a goaltender’s save percentage minus their expected save percentage (xSv%) calculated based on their HDSA%, MDSA%, LDSA%, and the league average weighted save percentages. (Positive numbers indicate the goaltender is performing better than you would expect the average goaltender to given their shot quality distribution against them; negative would indicate the inverse).

GSAA: Goals Saved Above Average – total goals allowed minus league average save percentage*number of shots that goalie has faced. (Positive numbers indicate the goalie is saving more shot than you would expect the average goaltender to given the number of shot they have faced; negative would indicate the inverse)

Several years ago the guys over at War-On-Ice developed the danger level save percentage stat, which takes into account shot location to create three separate save percentages by danger level and an overall weighted save percentage based on league average numbers. If you take a look at the graphic you’ll see shots are broken down into high danger chances (blue – the crease and slot), medium danger chances (pink – inside the “house” and the high slot), and low danger chances (yellow – the points, the half wall, and below the goal line). Essentially, this method uses the weighted distribution of shot quality to create an expected save percentage based on league average numbers, or xSv%. In the table above, you’ll notice I did not include xSv%, but rather dSv%, which is the difference between a goaltenders actual save percentage and their expected save percentage based on the distribution of the quality of chances they face.

Now if you’re thinking “but…but…this doesn’t seem very scientific! A high danger scoring chance can come from lots of places on the ice”, you’re probably right. A Schmaltz to Kane one timer from the end boards or a Shea Weber slapper with a screened goalie are about as high danger an opportunity as you can get; but would be considered “low danger” scoring attempts using this shot distribution method. If you want to think about it like that then HDSv% is a more “valuable” stat because shots from the slot are almost always high danger while shots from low danger areas are not going to be truly low danger the same percentage of the time. Which is why your elite goaltenders will have good league-relative HDSv%s but not necessarily good league relative LDSv%s.

So it’s not perfect, but generally it is a better way to contextualize shots than weighing all shots as equally dangerous because generally a shot from the crease will be more dangerous than a flipper from the point. Generally. But I digress.

Save Makers and Vezina Fakers

If we only evaluate the “traditional” goaltender metrics, (Wins, Sv%, GAA) the ESPN trophy list would seem about right, but if we look deeper at the advanced number, the story is a little different. I provided the distribution of high and low danger shot percentages for each goalie as a sort of measuring stick. These stats are ones that the goaltender cannot influence, but rather provide context for the situations their defense puts them in and distribution shot quality they typically have to face.

Connor Hellebuyck has received a lot of praise recently, which has brought his name into the conversation for the Vezina, but is it deservingly so? Hellebuyck has faced the fewest high danger scoring attempts in the entire league. On top of that, Hellebuyck’s high danger save percentage is below the league average and the lowest of any of the other Vezina candidates. These numbers point to the fact that the ‘peg defense is able to shield Hellebuyck from facing high danger scoring chances being exposed. If teams can figure out how to penetrate the Jet’s D and get some quality scoring chances off, Hellebuyck will be poised to topple like a house of cards.

In fact, the story gets even worse for Hellebuyck when we look at differential save percentage and goals saved above average. Given the relative ease of the shot quality distribution Hellebuyck faces, we would actually expect the average goaltender to have a save percentage .35 points higher than Hellebuyck. Hellebuyck is the only Vezina candidate who has a negative differential save percentage, while all six others are in the league’s top ten in dSv%. Furthermore, based on Hellebuyck’s GSAA, we would expect the league’s average goaltender to have allowed 2.57 fewer goals through this point in the season based only off shot totals, not shot quality distribution. This means that given the number of randomly distributed chances (and likely a more difficult workload given Hellebuyck’s HDSA%) an average goalie would be outperforming Hellebuyck by just under three goals so far this season. I think the advanced numbers show its clear that Hellebuyck does not deserve to be in the Vezina conversation regardless of how good the Jet’s D in front of him is. 

Not All Shots are Created Equal

Of the six candidates, you’ll observe that only Crawford and Bobrovsky are on teams that allow high danger shot attempts at not only a higher rate than the league average, but in the top five highest rates of HDSA in the league. Not only are Crawford and Bobrovsky facing significantly more A+ chances, but also have the two best high danger save percentages of all the Vezina candidates (second and third best in the league respectively). This tells us that these goalies are making more quality stops and bailing their team out much more frequently than any of the other contender, something any halfway Hawk fan could have told you about Crow this season.

Because of this, Crawford and Bob have two of the three highest dSv% in the league, meaning given the amount of high danger chances they face, we would expect them to make far fewer saves. However, despite only facing the 29^th most high danger shot attempts, (thus raising his xSv%) Vasilevskiy has the best dSv%, boasting the second highest low danger save percentage and eighth highest high danger save percentage. Moreover, Vasilevskiy also has the highest GSAA by a wide margin, saving 15 more goals than the average goalie would be expected to in his position. These contextual numbers point to Vasilevskiy being the obvious front-runner for the Vezina with Crawford and Bobrovsky both close behind in the hunt.

Thanks for reading and I’d love to hear your thoughts below.

Dan

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