Chicago Rinkcast staff members Andy Campbell, Sean Fitzgerald, Andrew Bard, and Jimmy O’Malley ESQ meet up in the Rinkcast Studio to discuss:

The impact of the Seth Jones/Spencer Knight trade.

What could be ahead for the Hawks ahead of the March 7 at 3:00 PM (EST) trade deadline?

Discuss what is going on with the slumping Connor Bedard.

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The post Blackhawks Rinkcast – Season 8, Episode 21 – 2025 TDL and What’s Eating Connor Bedard appeared first on The Rink.

Make sure to bookmark this page and come back as the moves happen for up-to-the-minute analysis and breakdowns from our friends at 

Date	The-Rink Division	Outgoing Player/Pick	Opposite Team	Player/Pick Received
3/1/2025		Seth Jones and a 2026 4th round pick		Spencer Knight and 2026 1st round draft pick
3/7/2025		Petr Mrazek and Craig Smith		Joe Veleno
3/7/2025		5th round draft pick in 2026		Shea Weber, Victor Soderstrom and Aku Raty

Trade Analysis/Breakdown:

• • The Florida Panthers acquired Seth Jones and a 2026 4th round pick from the Chicago Blackhawks for Spencer Knight and a 2026 1st round pick
  • The Detroit Red Wings acquired Petr Mrazek and Craig Smith from the Chicago Blackhawks for Joe Veleno
  • The Chicago Blackhawks acquired Shea Weber, Victor Soderstrom and Aku Raty from the Utah Hockey Club for a 2026 5th round pick

Also, be sure to follow the entire The-Rink staff on Twitter for up-to-the-minute updates, as well:

The Rink Official

Chicago Divison
The Rinkcast
Jeff Osborn
Andy Campbell
Eric Andrews
Sean Fitzgerald
Jimmy O’Malley
Andrew Bard
Ray Napientek
Matt Csakai

 

The post Chicago Blackhawks 2025 NHL Trade Deadline Tracker appeared first on The Rink.

Chicago Rinkcast staff members Andy Campbell, and Sean Fitzgerald share their immediate reaction to the Blackhawks trading Seth Jones to the Florida Panthers in exchange for Spencer Knight and a 2027 first-round pick.

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The post Blackhawks Rinkcast – Season 8, Episode 20 – The Seth Jones Saga Ends in Chicago appeared first on The Rink.

trade alert

︎ https://t.co/gjN0lotc2c pic.twitter.com/c2Bkza5FTG

— Chicago Blackhawks (@NHLBlackhawks) March 2, 2025

Jones, a polarizing figure among Blackhawks fans, had been vocal over the last week about his desire to play for a contender. Davidson clearly took this to heart and made quick work of pulling together a deal. Given the situation and Jones’ contract, most were not expecting for the Blackhawks to acquire a package the magnitude of Knight and a first-round pick.

Knight, a former first-round pick of the Panthers, comes to Chicago in search of a fresh start. Slotted behind future Hall of Famer Sergei Bobrovsky in Florida’s net, Knight will finally have the opportunity to establish himself as a No. 1 netminder in the NHL. The acquisition also takes significant pressure off of both Drew Commesso and Adam Gajan to become the long-term answer in net for the Blackhawks, something that cannot be overlooked in the trade.

The deal will likely create a chain reaction for the Blackhawks’ NHL goaltending situation, with Petr Mrazek and Arvid Soderblom currently on the roster, giving the team three options. Laurent Brossoit also remains a member of the organization and is under contract through next season. As such, it is likely at least one, if not two, of Mrazek, Soderblom or Brossoit will not be Blackhawks come next season.

The first-round pick further deepens Davidson’s draft capital cupboards and will allow the Blackhawks to either add another quality prospect to the system when the time comes or to use the pick as a trade chip to improve the roster in the meantime.

Jones gets his wish to head to a playoff team, and joining the defending Stanley Cup champions achieves that wish in spades. Given Florida’s depth on the back end, Jones should be allowed to properly slot in to an appropriate role, which should allow him to flourish. Given Chicago’s relatively weak blue line during Jones’ tenure as a Blackhawk, he was often over-relied upon, which exposed his deficiencies.

Jones played 259 games for the Blackhawks, tallying 32 goals and 114 assists for 146 total points with a -108 rating. Jones was initially acquired in the summer of 2021 from the Columbus Blue Jackets along with a 2021 first-round pick (Nolan Allan) and a 2022 sixth-round pick (Dominic James) in exchange for Adam Boqvist, a 2021 first-round pick (Cole Sillinger), a 2021 second-round pick (Aleksi Heimosalmi) and a 2022 first-round pick (David Jiricek).

The post BREAKING: Blackhawks trade Seth Jones to Florida, acquire Spencer Knight, first-round pick from Panthers appeared first on The Rink.

Chicago Rinkcast staff members Andy Campbell, Sean Fitzgerald, Andrew Bard, and Jimmy O’Malley ESQ meet up in the Rinkcast Studio to discuss:

4 Nations Cup wrap.

The Seth Jones saga.

Ryan Donato’s great season and trade value.

Lukas Reichel’s benching.

Trade Deadline.

Some Trivia.

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The post Blackhawks Rinkcast – Season 8, Episode 19 – Buckle up for anything but winning hockey appeared first on The Rink.

With the Chicago Wolves going independent, Carolina has no AHL affiliate. They have made a deal with the Eagles to loan dman Caleb Jones to Colorado. #Avs #GoAvsGo #Canes #EaglesCountry @TheRinkColorado pic.twitter.com/vV210C4WK1

— Brennan Vogt (@brennan_vogt) October 9, 2023

Jones, who was a fourth-round pick by the Edmonton Oilers, is the brother of Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Seth Jones. He is also the son of former Denver Nuggets power forward Popeye Jones. Caleb is a versatile two-way defenseman who can fill many roles. He is aggressive on the blue line and physical on the boards. Jones plays a very mobile game with his head up and aware of the play ahead of him. Now, he will become one of the Avalanche’s top choices to call up when they need a defenseman in Denver.

Unless the Hurricanes recall him now, Burke will continue to stay with the Eagles. Burke plays a 200-foot game, often leading the play out of the defensive zone. After passing to the winger, he crashes the net for rebounds or tap-ins. In December last year, Burke was called up to the Avalanche to make his NHL debut against the Boston Bruins, a team he grew up cheering for. In his two-game stint, he could not generate any points. Burke will stay with the Eagles because of their connection with the Hurricanes, which is fortunate since he and his wife recently had a baby boy.

The Avalanche have additional blue line choices for potential recalls. The Eagles’ disadvantage is working with a non-owned prospect in their system. This can hurt the player’s development chances of maintaining consistent ice time. The Avalanche and Eagles now have a congested blue line. Players must work harder for ice time. The sooner Carolina can secure their own affiliate club, the better.

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HEY NOW, HE’S AN ALL STAR pic.twitter.com/4uP5tjt4TO

— Chicago Blackhawks (@NHLBlackhawks) January 13, 2022

DeBrincat joins a talented Central Division squad featuring forwards Kyle Connor, Kirill Kaprizov, Clayton Keller, Jordan Kyrou, Nathan MacKinnon and Joe Pavelski, defenseman Cale Makar and goaltenders Juuse Saros and Cam Talbot. Seven of the Central Division’s selections will be making their all-star debuts, as only Keller, MacKinnon and Pavelski have participated in All-Star Weekend prior to this year.

DeBrincat learned of the news in a team meeting held on Thursday, as Blackhawks Interim Head Coach Derek King announced DeBrincat’s selection.

Casual. Cool. Calm. Cat. #NHLAllStar pic.twitter.com/u3M98xhSY0

— Chicago Blackhawks (@NHLBlackhawks) January 13, 2022

However, DeBrincat may not be the only Blackhawk headed to this year’s All-Star Weekend, as the NHL is holding its Last Men In fan voting contest, where fans will select the final player named to each division’s all star team. Representing the Blackhawks on the Last Men In ballot is defenseman Seth Jones.

Jones is no stranger to all-star weekend, having represented the Columbus Blue Jackets in three all-star games (2017, 2019, 2020) in addition to being selected for the 2018 contest but being unable to participate due to an injury.

Ultimately the Last Men In contest is a popularity contest, but it would behoove Central Division fans to vote for either Jones or Nashville Predators defenseman Roman Josi, as Makar is the lone blueliner currently on the Central Division roster.

Voting for the Last Men In contest concludes on Monday, Jan. 17 at 11:59 p.m. EST.

All-Star Weekend is being hosted by the Vegas Golden Knights in Las Vegas. The 2022 NHL All-Star Skills will take place on Feb. 4 at 7:30 p.m. EST, while the 2022 NHL All-Star Game tournament will be held on Feb. 5 beginning at 3 p.m. EST.

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THE FIRST THREE @88PKane@AM34@seth_jones3#TeamUSA | #WinterOlympics

— USA Hockey (@usahockey) October 7, 2021

The Olympic stage is nothing new for Kane, as it will be his third time representing the United States on the world’s biggest sports stage, donning the red, white and blue in both 2010 and 2014. Additionally, Kane has represented his country in nearly every major international setting, including the Under-17 World Junior Championships, Under-18 World Junior Championships, the World Junior Championships, the World Championships and the World Cup. Kane served as his team’s captain at both the 2018 and 2019 World Championships. Kane has tallied 82 points (29 goals, 53 assists) in 58 games played at the international events listed above throughout his career.

Conversely, 2022 will be the first Olympic experience for Jones, who was a rookie the last time NHL players were allowed to compete in the Olympics. However, like Kane, Jones is in no way a stranger to the international stage, including competing at the Under-17 World Junior Championships, Under-18 World Junior Championships, the World Junior Championships and the World Championships. In 43 contests in the events listed, Jones has amassed 35 points (eight goals, 27 assists). Jones also competed in the 2016 World Cup, but was representing the North American Under-23 team.

Toronto’s Auston Matthews rounded out the trio of provisional players named to the squad. The rest of the 25-man roster will be announced in January, and fellow Blackhawks teammate Alex DeBrincat is expected to join Kane and Jones on the final roster.

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New Rinkcast host Andy Campbell and co-host Eric Andrews are joined by Rink staffers Jeff Osborn from the Rink Seattle, Sean Fitzgerald, and new guy Andrew Bard get the season rolling with a camp edition of the Rinkcast.

• • Andy takes the reigns and leads us into 21-22
  • Who are we excited to see this season?
  • What do we think of the Jonathan Toews situation?
  • Who will be an under-the-radar surprise?
  • How about Kirby Dach?
  • Some Alex Nylander and Dylan Strome bashing.
  • Will the Blackhawks make the playoffs?

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Blackhawks Rinkcast – Season 5, Episode 2 – 2021-22 Season Preview https://t.co/Qpw5YFFEaN

— The-Rink.com Hockey Rinkcasts (@TheRinkcast) September 30, 2021

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On Friday, in their first blockbuster trade in some time, the Blackhawks acquired Jones, a 2021 first-round pick (32nd overall) and a 2022 sixth-round pick from the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for defenseman Adam Boqvist, Chicago’s 2021 first-round pick (12th overall), a 2021 second-round pick (44th overall) and Chicago’s 2022 first-round pick. Chicago then signed Jones in principle to an eight-year contract extension with an annual cap hit of $9.5 million.

That’s right, $9.5 million per year, for eight seasons! The reaction of “Wait, what? $9.5 million per season, is any defenseman worth that much?” is a completely natural reaction. I, for one, am not completely sold on the idea that at that price and term, anyone is worth that much. Adding the layer of trading Duncan Keith’s contract of $5.54 million per year, and Brent Seabrook’s retirement, relegating his once albatross of a contract to a minimal, long-term injured reserve cap hit, and the Hawks finally seemed to be rid of two bulky contracts that they could no longer afford to carry. And now this? With Jonathan Toews “possibly” coming back with a $10.5 million cap hit, Patrick Kane at the same price and now you have over $30 million wrapped up in three players for a team that technically should be “rebuilding?” Again, a natural reaction, and those that feel this way, you are not necessarily wrong, and I was certainly there with you and still may be there eventually.

If you pump the breaks and think about this further though, what Stan Bowman and company did was address a glaring need, and gave up a list of “possibles” for the “proven.” And, when you dig a little deeper and break down the dollars and cents, it is not as bad as it seems and there is one hell of a hockey player now on his way to the Windy City.

What did they lose here?

Okay, Chicago gave up Boqvist, a former top-10 pick, who may or may not pan out to be a legitimate NHL defenseman. Yes, he has upside, but he has also not found the game that many have hoped he would at this point. He is undersized, and frankly may continue to have a tough time in this league physically. It is as much or more of a gamble counting on his development than throwing a lot of coin at a proven professional. The picks Chicago gave up are just that, future scratch tickets and a lot of hope. A first-round pick between 10–20, which the Hawks dealt in 2021, and may have foreseeably dealt in 2022, could turn into significant NHL assets, but picking in that frame of the first round is not a lottery pick. However, you need to win the lottery for that player you pick to pan out. It is never a sure bet like a first or second overall draft choice.

What the Blackhawks did not give up in this deal were Alex DeBrincat or prized prospect Kirby Dach, many of whom feared would be included in a move to land Jones. And, if you are a firm Boqvist supporter, it was not that long ago that a similar Blackhawks’ prospect, Henri Jokiharju, once thought “untouchable,” was dealt to the Buffalo Sabres. Jokiharju has struggled since then and it is a wonder as to how much time he has left in the NHL.

Adam Boqvist (right) talks with Ian Mitchell (left) at Chicago Blackhawks development camp. (Photograph courtesy of the Chicago Blackhawks)

What did they get? A real hockey player.

So, what did the Hawks get with Jones? Hockey-wise, they got a stud, and that is not debatable. Jones is a top-10 NHL defenseman, who plays over 20 minutes a night, has a strong offensive component to his game, is physical and not a whole lot of fun for the opposition to play against. Jones is a massive upgrade to a Chicago blueline that is in significant need of help. Still shy of his 27th birthday, we still may have yet to see him at his best. The idea of possibly having Jones and Connor Murphy as the Hawks top two right-handed defensemen over the next few seasons is very appealing.

What about the contract?

On the contract, yes, every time I look at it, I wince, but let’s break it down. You now have your No. 1 defenseman stapled for eight more seasons following his last remaining year on his current contract and that extension expires when Jones is 35, not 39 or 40, which was the case with Keith and Seabrook. When the $9.5 million cap hit kicks in for the 2022–23 season, the contracts of Murphy, Calvin de Haan, Dominik Kubalik and Dylan Strome ($15.1 million per year combined) will all come off the books that summer. On the defensive side, Murphy probably would be one to re-sign, while it is realistic that de Haan could be trade deadline bait in the spring of 2022 or they let walk. Either way, there will be money to play with while the likes of Nicolas Beaudin, Wyatt Kalynuk and Ian Mitchell continue to mature and improve. Only Kalynuk will be a restricted free agent at that time and perhaps due for a small increase in pay and bridge deal. Then there is the current wildcard of restricted free agent Nikita Zadorov. He could be moved, and hopefully so, but Bowman certainly should not be in a rush to pay him right now.

Both contracts for Patrick Kane (pictured) and Jonathan Toews expire following the 2022–23 season, the first season of Seth Jones’ extension. (Photograph courtesy of Jim Rassol / AP)

And what about the three mega-deals with Jones, Kane and Toews? There is one year, the same year that de Haan and Murphy come off the books—2022–23—where that $30+ million is in effect…if that. Both Kane and Toews’ contracts expire after the 2022–23 season, one year into Jones’ lucrative extension. And, while we are all rooting for Toews to have a successful return to the team and the league, is it conceivable that he still may not be able to play, rendering his contract a marginal LTIR cap hit in 2022–23? Ah…you bet. And sadly, that may actually be very realistic at this point.

The Blackhawks needed an upgrade, and a splash if you will. We will not know how to accurately judge this move for a long time, and I definitely continue to go back and forth when thinking about it. That said, embrace the “proven” talent that is now on his way to West Madison Street. Jones is a dynamic player and a leader that will be the Blackhawks’ premier stalwart for the foreseeable future.

The post TRADE ANALYSIS: Blackhawks acquire Seth Jones, gamble on the ‘proven’ vs. ‘possible’ appeared first on The Rink.

All those are valid questions. However, the manic, borderline hysterical conclusions people are jumping to based on internet speculation about the Blue Jackets’ asking price and Jones’ ability, something a hockey writer speculates on a podcast or a way-out-of-context analytic take, push this dialogue off the rails.

Folks, calm down. Be rational. Keep reading. You will feel much better at the end. Promise.

I am not typically a Stan Bowman defender. But, I see his logic here and agree with it.

First, there is no “choice” for the Hawks between acquiring Jones or Dougie Hamilton.

There is quite literally nothing indicating Hamilton would sign with the Blackhawks, and there are a lot of indicators he would not.

The Hawks have not signed an unrestricted free agent of Hamilton’s magnitude since 2009—when they were coming off an appearance in the Western Conference Finals and the entire hockey world knew they were posted to win a Stanley Cup in the next couple of years. Enter Marian Hossa, with a massive contract. This Hawk team is far from the level of that team. Get any comparison between the two out of your head. Your IQ will go up 10 points immediately.

Leaving out the spectre of a massive front office sexual abuse scandal, the present Hawks are not a playoff team. They are league worst 5-on-5, their two best players are north of 30, they have holes all over the roster, and especially on defense.

The idea that Hamilton would spurn similar offers in money and term from better, “closer” teams in order to come to Chicago, play with Riley Stillman and maybe miss the playoffs is pretty much asinine.

Jones on the other hand, has less control over where he goes. He has asked to be traded, and he will be. His contract requires him to submit 10 teams to which he would accept a trade, which he has (by all accounts) and the Hawks are rumored to be on that list. Further, Bowman (likely not coincidentally) went out and acquired Jones’ younger brother, Caleb, last week in the Duncan Keith trade with the Edmonton Oilers.

Jones’ agent, Pat Brisson, is also his brother’s agent, and that of Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. Agents always play a larger role in mega deals like these than people realize. It may be all coincidence, but it may not be.

The hurdle here (and it is legitimate and significant) is that the Hawks need to trade assets of some value to acquire Jones. We will come back to that.

But, let’s be clear first: The Blackhawks have a much better chance today of acquiring Jones than they do Hamilton. Jones is younger, and will also likely be cheaper on his extension than Hamilton will be as a UFA.

And with the aforementioned trade of Keith to Edmonton for Caleb Jones, their need for a No. 1 (and a No. 2, and maybe a true No. 3) defenseman is now glaring, and critical.

Second, acquiring Jones makes the entire defense better, not just the top pair.

It is about appropriate slotting and player usage. Keith’s wretched analytics from last year (a constant drumbeat out of Edmonton prior to the trade) do not take into account the fact that he was still being utilized like he was 27 instead of 37. Keith is no longer the Keith of 2005–15, a 25-minutes-per-night top-pair, shutdown defenseman. But, he is still likely an effective second-pair defenseman at 18 minutes per night.

Jones forms at least half of an effective top pair. And, as far as Jones’ uncharacteristically weak individual analytics from last year, just like Keith, context is getting left out. Columbus was an awful team, with a coach in full meltdown mode, and Jones was coming off an injury and surgery at the end of the 2020 season. Look at the arc of the franchise, and specifically at the voluntary exodus of Sergei Bobrovsky, Artemi Panarin, Pierre-Luc Dubois (who totally mailed in his last few games at Nationwide Arena with Columbus), and now Jones since 2019.

Is it possible that the injury suffered in February 2020, or some other injury, has severely and permanently debilitated Jones? Sure, possible. But, so is the Earth getting hit by an asteroid next month. He is 26, not 36. And certainly, the Blackhawks will have done full diligence on his health before any trade or contract extension. So let’s assume he is fine health wise.

And, if he is fine, and just needs a change of scenery, I can tell you from having watched Jones play in person maybe 20 times in the last few years, including three playoff games in 2018 and 2019, he is a two-way force on the ice: Exactly what the Hawks need.

Back to slotting. With Jones on the right side of your top pair, Connor Murphy then becomes your right side defenseman on the second pair—a perfect spot for him. Then, either Adam Boqvist or perhaps Ian Mitchell plays 10–15 minutes per night on your third pair—again appropriate usage and matchups for a young player learning on the job.

The left side of the defense, with Caleb Jones, Stillman, Nikita Zadorov, Wyatt Kalynuk and perhaps Nicolas Beaudin or even (maybe) Calvin de Haan remains, umm, a bit more troublesome, But, overall, solidifying and seriously strengthening the right side of the defense is a big step forward and should not be taken for granted.

If this team does not improve dramatically on the back end, forget about the playoffs. Forget about developing young defensemen. Have Boqvist or Mitchell developed like the team led us to believe they would? No. It will be an epic dumpster fire, especially without Keith for a “replacement.” Losing a lot of games 7–5, with no continuity or success. Until the price is paid to improve it.

Third, some perspective on the actual “cost” of acquiring Jones is needed.

It was literally less than two weeks ago when a writer speculated or even breathlessly “reported” that the Hawks were asking for solid young defenseman Ethan Bear out of Edmonton for Keith. Edmonton fans erupted, and even those of us in Chicago who still believe in Keith said, “Yeah, they will not get that.”

So these “reports” of asking prices are highly dubious, because even if they are actually true, they are typically just PR/negotiating ploys, a “first salvo” if you will, of the GMs.

Yesterday, when there were “reports” that some writers felt the Blue Jackets would ask for basically half the Blackhawks’ roster, including Alex DeBrincat and Kirby Dach, Hawks Twitter erupted.

“Hang up the phone, Stan!”

“Pass. Just sign Hamilton.” (Yeah, they are not going to “just sign Hamilton.” At least not outside of EA Sports NHL21.)

Etc.

Okay, sure, Columbus General Manager Jarmo Kekalainen is going to ask for a lot. But, he will not ever get that first asking price from anyone, so relax.

Do I trust Bowman to make a shrewd trade? Not really, but let me also caveat that.

So many of Bowman’s trades have been simply trying to reduce costs (which was definitely at the direction of John McDonough and the Wirtzes). Fans have largely missed that part, but the league has not.

From the sell off of 2010, another sell off in 2011, to Patrick Sharp and Nick Leddy in 2015, then Artemi Panarin and Niklas Hjalmarsson in 2017, and Brandon Saad last year, Bowman’s position has been incredibly weak—because the whole league knows going in what the Hawks are trying to do: Reduce salary and move contracts.

This is different. As with marquee unrestricted free agents, this is the first time in a long time Bowman is going out to acquire a top young player, and not trying to cut cost.

Let’s come back to the idea of rebuilding.

Fourth, not every first- or second-round draft pick will develop into what they are projected as.

Yes, you absolutely rebuild through the draft.

But again, the highway to glory in the NHL is littered with the Nikita Filatovs, Robbie Schremps and other heavily hyped high draft picks ad nauseum. Do fans—Hawks fans—tend to overvalue their prospects? Uh, yeah.

Year after year, from Pavel Vorobiev and Mikhail Yakubov (now playing in a Chicago beer league) to Jack Skille, Dylan Sikura, Drew Leblanc, Kyle Beach, Igor Makarov, Ryan Hartman, Nick Schmaltz, Boqvist, Mitchell (tell me when I should stop).

So you definitely also want to keep (or acquire when you can) young, developed, quality players, like 26-year-old Jones, for example.

Thus, DeBrincat, you absolutely do not trade.

But, after that, there is an argument (depending on return) for at least listening on a lot of Blackhawks players, including, yes, Dach, because he is not developed, or even really close to it.

It was just a couple of months ago when The Athletic published an article quoting NHL scouts on a range of the Hawks’ young players, including Dach, about whom they said (paraphrasing): “They (the team) now know he will never be another Toews.”

“He may only be a 55–60-point guy, but he will be a good player.”

Okay, that is good, but “untouchable?” Additionally, while fans and some media have penciled him in as the Hawks’ “future No. 1 center,” there is some legitimate question (at this point, anyway) whether he will even end up as a center, much less a No. 1 center.

Am I arguing to trade Dach for Seth Jones? No. But, the idea that it should not even be considered because of how great a prospect Dach is, well, that is probably a bit off, especially with the Blackhawks’ desperate needs on defense.

Further, if Bowman’s previous larger deals—and especially those with Kekalainen—are any indication, this trade will not be a “one for one” anyway.

My guess, in light of the Hawks’ relative stockpile of young, puck-rushing defensemen (Beaudin, Boqvist, Kalynuk, Mitchell, Wyatt Kaiser) and scoring wingers (or “centers” who may be better as wings), some combination of that will be the return to Columbus, as well as draft picks and swaps of draft pick positions to consider. The Hawks could, for example, deal their 2021 first-round pick (12th overall) for Columbus’ 32nd overall pick (originally belonging to the Tampa Bay Lightning and acquired in the David Savard trade) as a part of a deal. There is a “cost” there, but you still have a “first-round pick.”

Lots of ways to skin this cat, and a value for value deal may not end up being all that “painful.”

In summary, with Keith gone, the Hawks almost have to do something on defense this summer. And, Jones is the best bet.

Change is hard, but often, in the end, worth it.

Further, for reasons cited above (the familiarity of Bowman with Brisson and Kekalainen, the acquisition of Caleb Jones—and the loss of Keith), it is likely that the wheels have been in motion on this deal for a while.

Whether the Hawks had targeted Jones before Keith requested a trade or not (and they probably had), they now have a gaping need on what was already arguably the league’s weakest blueline. Jones is a major step toward solving that problem, not just because of his ability, but the opportunity to now use the rest of the Hawks’ blueliners more appropriately.

And, as we have outlined above, it is also unlikely the Blackhawks have the “option” of acquiring Hamilton, or anyone else of Jones’ ability, in unrestricted free agency.

Let it play out. If the Hawks end up not acquiring Jones, which (until the deal comes through the fax machine in Toronto), is a possibility, then it will be because the price from Columbus was simply too ridiculously high (in reality, not because the Twitterz said so), and then the team stands pat or moves on to some other (less certain) plan B.

All we have for now. Comment below.

The post ANALYSIS: The case for Seth Jones appeared first on The Rink.

The reporting on the negotiations between the Blackhawks and Oilers turned out to be accurate—retained salary by Chicago had been rumored to be a sticking point. In the end, the Oilers acquired Keith, who has two years remaining on his current contract, along with minor-league forward Tim Soderlund, for 24-year-old defenseman Caleb Jones and a conditional third-round pick—with Chicago not having to retain any of Keith’s salary.

The Chicago media—and Blackhawk Twitter—were quick to proclaim this a big win for Blackhawks President of Hockey Operations and General Manager Stan Bowman. But, that is not unusual. Bowman could acquire a roll of tape and a frighteningly large segment of the fanbase would still be “juiced.”

The key to this deal is the 24-year-old Jones, not because he is a hugely promising player, but because he just happens to be the younger brother of a rumored Blackhawk offseason target, Columbus defenseman Seth Jones.

Caleb Jones, by himself, is probably yet another No. 5–7 defenseman on a Chicago team already chock full of them. But, if his presence in Chicago could help the Hawks sign the elder Jones to an extension (after first trading for him), then the Keith trade will have worked out very well for Chicago, both in terms of securing a valuable rebuild piece for the blue line, and most of the cap room needed to sign him.

If not, then Caleb Jones and a third-round draft pick (the majority of which never actually play in the NHL) is not a “winning return” for an aging, but still likely effective (in the right situation, i.e. outside Chicago), Keith.

Finally, we would be remiss if we did not tap our sticks on the departure of a true warrior, and a vital cog in the great Blackhawk teams from 2009–15. Keith will be missed, and his No. 2 is certainly headed to the United Center rafters before too terribly long.

All we have for now.

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Typically, 90%+ of the speculation is unfounded.

Still, this is an unusually important offseason for the Blackhawks. There is no conclusive evidence that the rebuild is working—or not working. The team overperformed the first half of last year (while playing a lot of games against Columbus and Detroit due to a COVID-19-dictated schedule), and then played pretty poorly from March 1 on.

Characterizing another season of not making the (actual) playoffs, the Hawks were yet again an abysmal 5-on-5 team (a much more serious—and roster-based—problem than many fans or the media seem to realize), making the possible (or not possible) return of center Jonathan Toews all the more critical to improvement in 2021–22.

So, here, based on the situation outlined above—and filtered through the lens of economics, past experience and logic—are various ways the summer might unfold for the Blackhawks, and what it all might mean.

Whither the “rebuild?”

The first—and most important—premise to understand is that the Hawks want to return to the playoffs, if not Stanley Cup contention, as soon as possible.

Rightly or wrongly, the team has committed to a “rebuild” around a few remaining (and rapidly aging) stars from the previous Stanley Cup teams. And this is really important to understand when you are considering the possibility that the Blackhawks could be trade or free-agency players for defensemen Seth Jones and Dougie Hamilton or forwards Jack Eichel and Matthew Tkachuk.

What most of the speculation around the Hawks pursuing any of these players seems to not take into account is that there will be significant markets for each of these players. Put more simply, it is not like Chicago General Manager Stan Bowman picks up the phone, calls Columbus General Manager Jarmo Kekalainen, offers Pius Suter, Ian Mitchell and a bag of pucks and magically acquires Jones.

There will be strong, league-wide interest in each of these players—which will drive up the “price” each player’s respective team is asking. Or, if Hamilton goes the unrestricted free agency route, the team that signs him will pay heavily in average annual value and term. And, if that team should be the Blackhawks, that price may be even higher, as they will be bidding against at least one or two teams that are closer to actual Cup contention.

So, if you want Jones, are you willing to give up Adam Boqvist and this year’s first-round pick (for starters)? If you want Eichel, are you willing to give up the above and Kirby Dach?

Or, say, Alex DeBrincat and this year’s first-round selection and something else.

Or Patrick Kane?

If you want Hamilton, are you willing to pay him $8–9 million a year until he is, say, 35—with a no-movement clause?

Most fans, if Hawk Twitter over the last week or so is any good metric, would balk.

Again, typically, many Blackhawk fans tend to overvalue Chicago players and prospects versus those of other teams—so we can debate whether Eichel is worth “so much” ‘til the cows come home. But, what probably is not debatable is that the price is going to be high, and it is going to mean giving up “good” players that you are currently trying to rebuild around (or with).

Setting the price aside, it also means this: Jones, Hamilton, Eichel or Tkachuk are elite or near-elite young (or “younger,” anyway) players. Each is better than Boqvist or Dach. Or DeBrincat. And odds are, each will be over the course of the players’ respective careers.

There is a school of thought that you need to acquire potentially elite, near-elite and/or already-elite players in order to rebuild into a Cup contender. So, there is an argument that packaging up pieces and parts of the recent “rebuild” to acquire a young difference-maker at defense or center—both huge areas of need for Chicago)—makes some sense. Simply stated, trade two or three good (or “potentially good”) young players/prospects for a great young player.

But, would Bowman do that? If we had to bet, we would say no. Big, bold, splashy moves have never been Bowman’s forte. Further, the Hawk organization has invested a lot of time and “reputational” capital in their “rebuild around Kane, Toews and Duncan Keith” plan.

However, there is ample evidence that the hoped-for acquisition and development of enough good young players to re-establish the Blackhawks as contenders—while Kane, Keith and Toews are still productive players—is becoming less and less likely.

And those of you still holding onto the idea that the Hawks really have improved a lot and are close to a return to the league’s elite, need to go watch more of this year’s playoff games—see and understand the speed, the depth and the physicality of teams like Colorado, Vegas, Tampa Bay, the New York Islanders, etc.—and then go hit yourself in the head with a ballpeen hammer.

That said, one of the hallmarks of a strong organization and a strong general manager is to recognize when a plan is not working and adroitly adjust course. But, this, also, has not been one of Bowman’s strong suits.

However, his 2019 draft, where he deliberately and publicly went “big” with Dach and defenseman Alex Vlasic, was a course change and an admission that years of drafting small, but “skilled” skaters was not paying off.

Eichel and Toews, Toews and Eichel

Toews has missed a full year of hockey with a mystery “ailment,” and he will be 34 years old at the end of the upcoming season. Here at The Rink, we are huge Toews fans. But, all of us need to be realistic in our expectations.

Based on the scant information anyone (beyond Toews, his agent, his doctor and the Blackhawks) has, there is a plausible scenario where Toews gets 100% “healthy,” returns to full workouts and comes back rejuvenated after a year off—giving the team a nice and much-needed lift in the face-off circle, 5-on-5, on special teams, etc.

But, there are other, perhaps more likely, scenarios where Toews cannot return—or if he does return, he is somewhat diminished due to the “ailment/injury” and/or age, or he returns, but his ability to play is sporadic for the remainder of his career.

This comes back to Eichel. Eichel is not a 1:1 “doppelganger” for Toews, but they are both No. 1 centers, team captains and somewhat similar stylistically. And, at 24 years of age, entering really the prime of his career, Eichel is in all likelihood an upgrade at the 1C position in the lineup.

In addition to the possibility Buffalo does not even trade Eichel, it is also plausible that the Hawks might only publicly “kick the tires” to see if there would be some way to add him in—along with Toews returning. But, that is almost impossible due to salary alone. Talking about going after Eichel to get some news coverage is a lot different than actually going after Eichel.

So, if you do see the Hawks (legitimately, not speculatively) make a hard move for Eichel this summer, you can pretty safely assume that the team is none too confident in Toews’ prospects going forward. And, should the team succeed in acquiring Eichel, you can also expect, along with that, a bit of a roster overhaul and overall course correction on the “rebuild.”

There is no question, even with Toews, the Blackhawks have needed much better play at the center position to get back in contention.

Some keep holding out for Dylan Strome to be part of that solution, which is probably not happening.

Many have rushed to assume that Dach solves that problem. It is way too early to say that, however, and it remains to be seen if Dach ends up over the course of his NHL career as a winger or a No. 2 center (a level he is still working toward), instead of a No. 1 center.

So, while the Hawk blueline remains a vexing and obvious problem, do not be surprised if the focus of the team this summer lies on a young, expensive center from Massachusetts.

What will happen?

Just due to the law of averages, the Blackhawks probably will not acquire any of the three or four marquee “available” players this summer. And, they will continue on their present course, draft another potentially “good” player at 12th overall, pray for Toews’ healthy (and durable) return and hope for some organic growth from their current batch of young players and prospects.

If the Hawks do not enter the Eichel sweepstakes, the next most likely target would potentially be Jones. Could Bowman craft a package that might sway Kekalainen that somehow does not strip too much of the Blackhawks’ already thin supply of good players and prospects? Would Jones commit to extend his contract in Chicago? Big questions.

Or, Bowman might swing a trade or two to “upgrade” the middle of the roster somehow. The team might even take a dip in the free agency pool, albeit shopping more on the budget rack as has become the norm in recent years.

But, this offseason, or perhaps before the in-season trade deadline, that “course correction” we suggested above could happen—where the team finally acknowledges (if not publicly, then to themselves) that Kane, Keith and Toews will not be good enough, long enough, for the young players and prospects to catch up with them.

All we have for now. Comment below.

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