ANALYSIS: NHL free agency is dead, how does it affect the Blackhawks?

  

In the summer of 2009, the Chicago Blackhawks signed Marian Hossa to a 12-year, $62.8 million contract. It was the best free agent signing in Blackhawks history and helped propel the team to three Stanley Cups. Hossa was a three-time all-star with 1,134 points before joining the Blackhawks for eight seasons.

The other big fish of the 2009 free agent class was Marian Gaborik. He was 27 years old and signed with the New York Rangers for five years at $37.5 million. Gaborik was a two-time all-star with 437 points.

Since 2009, the NHL has obviously changed a lot. One of the major changes has been the NHL salary cap. Since 2021-22, the cap has gone up from $81.5 million to the current cap $95.5 million. Since the summer of 2022 until the present, very few major free agents have left their current NHL teams. The biggest free agent to leave from 2022-2025 was Johnny Gaudreau. Gaurdreau signed for $62.25 million over seven years. Gaurdreau was 29 years old with 609 points in Calgary before signing with Columbus. I say Gaurdreau because Steven Stamkos was 32 when he signed his deal with Nashville.

Since that time, very few superstars have been allowed to get the free agency. Teams are utilizing their new-found cap space to retain their current stars.

Free agent class of 2026

This offseason had the potential to change that narrative with all of the potential stars being available.

When this season began, July 1, 2026, was supposed to be exciting.

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Well, since that tweet was posted, almost all of the guys on that list have re-signed with their respective teams. The only two left from the list are an aging Artemi Panarin and Alex Tuch. Panarin will be an unrestricted free agent at age 34 and Alex Tuch will be an unrestricted free agent at age 30, but the Buffalo Sabres are trying their best to retain Tuch.

The “headliner” of the 2026  unrestricted free agent class might be former Blackhawk forward Nick Schmaltz, who is 27 years old. While Schmaltz is having a good season, he is not viewed as a difference maker.

How does this affect the Blackhawks?

Under Kyle Davidson, the Blackhawks’ free agent plan has been strategic. Two seasons ago, Davidson spent a significant amount of money on bottom-tier free agents and middle-tier guys. He signed TJ Brodie, Alec Martinez, Pat Maroon and Corey Perry from the bottom tier. These older free agents were overpaid to be mentors and stop-gaps for the Hawks’ prospects. From the middle tier, the Hawks signed Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen to be more competitive in the next several seasons. He also signed goalie Laurent Brossoit to a two-year deal. Brossoit has not played during his tenure with the Hawks due to injury.

In terms of big-game hunting, Davidson tried to sign Jake Guentzel. While the Hawks offered more money than the Tampa Bay Lightning, Guentzel decided to take less money for a chance to win. Aside from that offer, Davidson has not been tied to big free agents.

Blackhawks’ free agent plans

This past offseason, the Hawks were not active at all in free agency. They signed a two-way forward in Dominic Toninato, who has been an AHL guy. The only free agent signing was Matt Grzelcyk, who came to the Hawks camp on PTO. Only after the young defenseman Ethan Del Mastro failed to seize a spot was Grzelcyk signed.

With free agency dead, trades  become more inportant. Davidson has already been successful in the trade market. He flipped Seth Jones for Spencer Knight in a splashy trade. He has also shown a knack for some savvy trades. Davidson has acquired useful pieces in Andre Burakovsky, Ilya Mikheyev and Jason Dickinson via trade for salary relief and picks.

Despite the changes to other teams’ approach to free agency, Davidson is not going to alter his approach to team building. He made this statement in early 2025:

“This takes time. We knew it would take time. There’s nothing that’s gone on in our prospect group or the development of our young players that’s causing me concern. … We are in the process of a rebuild here, and it’s going to be on the backs of our young players and prospects.”

So, while teams are retaining their big stars and not allowing them to reach free agency, the Blackhawks will not be affected for the near future. Instead, the team will likely continue looking within for future progress, with the trade market being the likely route should external reinforcement be needed.

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