Analysis: File Duclair Deal Under “Rundblad”

  

Blackhawk GM Stan Bowman traded one talented but unproductive player for another yesterday—swapping Richard Panik for Anthony Duclair. Why?

 

The ‘positive’ spin on this deal was provided last night by analyst Bob Mackenzie on NBCSN’s between periods coverage of the Hawks-Wild game: Stan Bowman is looking to make his roster faster and younger with several deals he’s made over the last couple of years.

OK, and I was the guy beating the same drum last summer about the Niklas Hjalmarsson-Connor Murphy and Artemi Panarin-Brandon Saad deals.

Another way to look at these deals: reduced cap hit, or at least, in the case of Saad, longer term for the same money (Panarin is going to get a giant deal from someone next summer).

But there’s a separate pattern here that goes back further—and that’s Bowman trading for former first or second round picks of other teams, “talented,” but underachieving players and hoping that they’ll turn it around in Chicago.

Exhibit A: David Rundblad, who, when he came to Chicago at age 23, was in his fourth organization.

Exhibit B: Panik (Chicago was his third organization by age 24)

Exhibit C: Tomas Jurco

Exhibit D: Duclair, the Hawks are his third organization

You can argue Bowman is 1-for 3 in these deals, but that’s assuming Panik was a hit. Yet, he just got dealt, along with his $2.8 million per year salary, for Duclair. Jurco and Rundblad were acquired for draft picks—neither has done squat in Chicago. Rundblad and Panik are gone.

An argument can be made this is relatively low-cost experimentation around the edges of the roster. Sort of like a $10 a day lottery ticket habit for most of us. Meh.

And without question, the latest trade saves the Hawks fairly significantly: $1.6 million in annualized cap hit this year.

But it also raises a question

Is the time, energy, roster and cap space spent experimenting on and waiting for guys who’ve worn out their welcomes—in sometimes more than one organization—worth it?

Rundblad was given several “opportunities” to succeed—and more than many felt he deserved. Jurco was recently called up from Rockford over the likes of Matthew Highmore. There may have been/may be good hockey reasons for these moves. But it also makes one wonder if Bowman doesn’t over-index on making these “experiments” work—somehow.

But, it’s all up to Anthony Duclair now to take the ball and run with it on a team that, at least for the time being, is in contention for a playoff spot. Rumor has it, he wanted out of Arizona and the powers that be in the desert wanted him out as a result.

We’ll discuss this and other issues on the RinkCast tonight. Weigh in below on this page with your thoughts.

 

Follow: @jaeckel

Center Ice Forums Analysis: File Duclair Deal Under “Rundblad”

Viewing 20 posts - 1 through 20 (of 30 total)
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  • #3045
    John Jaeckel
    Keymaster

    Blackhawk GM Stan Bowman traded one talented but unproductive player for another yesterday—swapping Richard Panik for Anthony Duclair. Why?   The
    [To continue reading full article, click: Analysis: File Duclair Deal Under “Rundblad”]

    Apparently, all goalies are Vikings

    #3047
    BlendedByCoachWizzo
    Participant

    Panik May have been inconsistent, but at least he was well rounded. Duclair is Evender Kane light. All the drama, but with less talent.

    #3050
    PurePone
    Participant

    I had the ability to watch Duclair while he played here for the Rags, and have watched him a bit in Zona.

    My personal outtake is he has all the pieces that fit the system offensively, and very well could put himself in a very good position here in Chicago. When he was in NY, he definitely showed some really good lights on what looked like at the time a very defensive minded offense/team.

    I like the deal mainly because while Panik did have a great season for the Hawks (and with a nice cap at the time,) last season, he is not worth his contract as of right now and the Hawks need to trim any “fat” that they have. Panik fits that bill.

    My guess is Q pops him on the 3rd line and hopes that he creates more offensive depth, but he could start on the 2nd with Kaner on his opposite and could very well flourish.

    I think we need to hold off on the Rundblad comparisons as that is one guy who clearly is going to be the worst of the worst of moves StanBo will ever make in his GM career whether in Chicago or if he ever GM’s elsewhere.

    #3051
    hawkeytalk
    Participant

    Panik was pretty well-rounded, but his solid season really was a flash in the pan mixed with playing alongside Hossa. Without that season Panik hasn’t done a whole lot even in a good situation in Chicago, and at times he was hesitant and/or unwilling to do the things that elevate his game – use his body and crash the net.

    In Duclair you get someone quicker than Panik, with more untapped offensive potential, and someone who will bring a willingness to perform after escaping AZ and being put in a situation where he can thrive. And creating salary cap flexibility. In my mind, this is a no-doubt win for Stan to give this organization another chance to benefit from a high draft pick player that hasn’t found his flow yet in the NHL.

    In the end the trade could be a non-factor on the ice, but it could just as easily be that Ellison-for-Sharp type deal that Gate mentioned in his post, and ends up being a major steal for years. My gut is it will be more like the latter.

    #3052
    fattybeef
    Participant

    Ha, that is the most cynical look at the deal I’ve seen but I like it. I think Duclair has more raw skill than Panik ever had. In terms of hands and finish. I tried to be a voice of reason when the Panik love was happening last year because if Babcock couldn’t stand him how is he going to work here?

    Worst case scenario it moves 1.6 off the books now and clears all of that 2.8 next year if someone picks Duclair up they get compensation in picks. I think if he comes here and he lights it up they don’t have the scratch to pay him anyway but again, at least they would get compensation if someone offer sheets beyond whatever the qualifying offer is.

    It is another year of if Patrick Kane doesn’t multipoint or at least score, the Hawks don’t win. If MacKinnon wasn’t dragging Colorado into the playoffs he’d would probably have to be in consideration fo the MVP again. I don’t know how they fix that at this point.

    There are a lot of Captain Hindsight moments you can have with Stan right now but I don’t know how many of the home runs cancel out the abhorrent stuff.

    #3053
    Joe Roncetti
    Participant

    I think this is a great trade for many reasons!! This kid has speed, hands and finish!! A new start with this team under this leadership could be lightning in a bottle! I’d say line two for a start and we might be very excited a short time from now looking back at this….Duclair is a rare talent…

    #3054
    Alan Parsons
    Participant

    Its all about Panik. They clearly soured on Panik for whatever reasons, could have been personal stuff in the locker room, he was struggling on the ice and looked lost out there. Losing his contract is a good thing. Low risk, high reward. I think the Rundblad comparison is ridiculous though. Sorry, JJ. Not biting on that one. And Im not buying the Evander Kane comparison either. Getting out of Arizona is going to be good for anyone.

    I mean, its a minor deal, good for salary cap implications, and good for the long term if you can get him to a bridge deal or short term deal of some kind if you like what he gives you the next few months. Otherwise, you can let him go.

    Low risk. Good deal, no?

    #3057
    Hank_Greenberg
    Participant

    Worst case scenario it moves 1.6 off the books now and clears all of that 2.8 next year if someone picks Duclair up they get compensation in picks.

    If for no other reason than this, I like the deal. They way he played this year, Panik isn’t going to be a difference-maker for the Hawks. If Duclair catches lightning in a bottle, great; if not, at least there’s salary cap relief.

    #3058
    6628
    Participant

    I like that if DuClair doesn’t work out they can cut him loose and save cap space without a song and dance

    #3063
    kinigitt
    Participant

    Runblad? That’s a meandering way to assess the trade, I gotta say.

    Runblad was never good. Duclair has at least produced at the NHL level, and Stan didn’t give up any precious high draft picks for him either. Runblad was a hot potato, Duclair is a sophomore slump nearing academic probation level.

    Appreciate the other points you made though, they’re good.

    #3064
    hawkeytalk
    Participant

    It’s kind of funny how two camps have already formed – those who think Duclair is a waste of time, and those who think this is a complete steal for Stan. Chances are it will land somewhere in the middle, and a tough decision will need to be made about whether or not to bring Duclair back next year/what that will cost. In the end, Panik was turning into a lost cause and he got replaced by a young speedster with serious upside at a lower cost/commitment. Nothing not to like here, and I’m excited to see how Duclair’s presence has an effect both on the ice and on the psyche of this team.

    #3065
    matt_ahrens
    Participant

    “But it also makes one wonder if Bowman doesn’t over-index on making these “experiments” work—somehow.”

    That’s a fair question overall.

    Panic’s year last year counts as a win in my book. Turning him around for Duclair is also a win; cap savings, upside, etc.

    Right now, Duclair is 4 years younger than Panik (and 3 years younger than Jurco, FWIW.) Why not try it? With the roster where it is right now, Q will need to either defend dressing 7 defensemen every night or play one of these two Stan projects. Maybe Jurco gets a chance tomorrow night but I have a feeling Duclair is going to get to dress more frequently for as long as the roster stays this way.

    #3066
    Alan Parsons
    Participant

    Duclair had decent underlying numbers on a terrible team. He deserves a fresh start and a good situation. Panik was underwater and flailing.

    This one needs some time.

    #3067
    hawkeytalk
    Participant

    “But it also makes one wonder if Bowman doesn’t over-index on making these “experiments” work—somehow.”

    That’s a fair question overall.

    Panic’s year last year counts as a win in my book. Turning him around for Duclair is also a win; cap savings, upside, etc.

    Right now, Duclair is 4 years younger than Panik (and 3 years younger than Jurco, FWIW.) Why not try it? With the roster where it is right now, Q will need to either defend dressing 7 defensemen every night or play one of these two Stan projects. Maybe Jurco gets a chance tomorrow night but I have a feeling Duclair is going to get to dress more frequently for as long as the roster stays this way.

    Agreed – Stan won both of his trades involving Dicky Panik, with an unnecessary extension sandwiched in between.

    From hearing Q talk about the trade it already sounds like he is higher on Duclair then he ever was/will be with Jurco, so I’d expect to see Duclair draw in early and often, especially if he’s having a noticeable impact.

    #3068
    hawkeytalk
    Participant

    Duclair had decent underlying numbers on a terrible team. He deserves a fresh start and a good situation. Panik was underwater and flailing.

    This one needs some time.

    Agreed, time will tell. If anything, the Duclair experiment will be more exciting than the Panik that we’ve been living with this season.

    #3077
    John Jaeckel
    Keymaster

    I agree time will tell, the opportunity is there for Duclair, a kid with questionable maturity/character

    Apparently, all goalies are Vikings

    #3078
    Slick
    Moderator

    I agree time will tell, the opportunity is there for Duclair, a kid with questionable maturity/character

    I just hope that it doesn’t take two and a half seasons for Bowman to figure out that he has another Rundblad – if Duclair is that much of a dud.

    #3079
    6628
    Participant

    SB might not have 2 1/2 years if things don’t look up.

    #3081
    Slick
    Moderator

    SB might not have 2 1/2 years if things don’t look up.

    After the Hjalmarsson trade, I’ve been wondering that too.

    #3085
    Mister Ricochet
    Participant

    Duclair had decent underlying numbers on a terrible team. He deserves a fresh start and a good situation. Panik was underwater and flailing.

    [b]This one needs some time.[/b]

    Good thread, good comments. Could have quoted any post but picked this one as I wanted to make a point. The kid came right out of the no defense played QMJHL right to the bigs. No AHL development for Duclair except when he was demoted for 16 games last yr.

    So he really never had a pro foundation to work from. Bad habits and shaken confidence can happen in that circumstance especially playing 90 games with AZ.

    As has been posted by many the Hawks can’t lose here. Kid works out great, another young speed/skill guy to build with the future core(?) of Schmaltz, Dcat, Oesterle, Forsling. If not they lose Panik and his money due. …………But as mentioned last night IMO we all may look back on this one and say it was StanBow’s best move of them all.

    Duclair: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=98665

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