Never say never, but Panarin to Chicago is probably nonsense

  

Twitter, the human imagination, and some less than responsible analysis out there has a way of driving convenient, feel-good hockey narratives that don’t hold up under the harsh light of realistic scrutiny.

One such narrative has emerged over the last few weeks—that the Columbus Blue Jackets’ contract extension impasse with Artemi Panarin means Panarin could be/should be (goddammit WILL BE) coming back to Chicago.

Let’s put on our thinking caps and go back to last summer, when Hawk GM Stan Bowman dealt Panarin to the Blue Jackets in the first place.

Take a deep breath and ask yourself why.

It wasn’t because Panarin is a bad player or a bad guy. To the contrary. It wasn’t even because the Hawks estimated that Brandon Saad was Panarin’s equal (they’re different style players, and let’s not go down that rabbit hole right now).

It was because the Blackhawks’ brass knew they would have a difficult, if not impossible, task ahead in extending Panarin to stay in Chicago—precisely the same position the Blue Jackets find themselves in today. So the Hawks got the best deal they could from the Jackets, which, along with the deal that sent Niklas Hjalmarsson to the Coyotes, averted another impending Cap-a-geddon for Chicago in the summer of 2019.

Now, the other precipitating event that is driving the Breadman Returneth narrative was the Hawks finally dealing Marian Hossa’s contract to Arizona 3 ½ weeks ago, creating a bunch of cap space.

The problem with that is, it doesn’t align with the thinking that the Hawks had when they dealt Panarin. The Hawks fully intended, last summer, before they dealt Panarin, to deal Hossa’s contract at some point and recoup the cap room. They spoke last summer with, at minimum, Carolina and Arizona about it—and I heard yesterday may have had a deal in place to include Hossa in the Hjalmarsson deal, before that part of the trade fell through.

Now, the Hawks find themselves in need of a box office splash in Chicago—and the highly popular Panarin would fit that bill. And certainly, if the rumors I’ve heard of a fairly hot pursuit of Montreal’s Max Pacioretty are true, then the position is open.

The problem there is the prices—both in terms of assets that would need to be surrendered in trade and in terms of average annual value of a contract extension—are going to be higher for Panarin than they will be for Pacioretty. And the Hawks haven’t been able to get a deal done with Montreal thus far either.

That’s the issue.

Panarin is a great player who would, without question, improve the Hawks in the Top 6—assuming you don’t have to hurt the top 6 too much to re-acquire him.

Now, stop thinking like a Hawk fan, and put yourself in the shoes of Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen—there is literally not a chance in hell that you are going to give Stan Bowman (or anyone) a sweetheart deal on Panarin.

Kekalainen took a risk dealing Saad and Anton Forsberg for Panarin in the first place—and although neither player ripped up Chicago last year, both could be more valuable assets for the Hawks as soon as this year. And if Panarin ends up signing in New York, or Southern California or Florida next summer—with no compensation to the Jackets—Saad and Forsberg are going to make Bowman look like a genius.

Kekalainen knew, and his boss Team President John Davidson knew the failure or success of that trade would hinge on whether Panarin helped the Jackets go deep in the playoffs (not yet anyway), and if they could re-sign him (they might not).

Today, it’s sounding more and more like Panarin wants to be in a major media market on one of the U.S. coasts—and make maximum market value on his next deal, things the Jackets or the Hawks might not be able to offer.

This is where the market drives the narrative—not silly tweets or misinterpretations of conjecture by Canadian commentators.

If the Jackets can’t re-sign Panarin by say January, he is likely going to go on the trading block—unless the Jackets really feel they can go deep in the playoffs this season, in which case, they may have to double down and pray they can work it out in the offseason.

The smart money would bet Panarin is going to go on the block at some point between now and mid-February—and the Jackets will take the best offer they can get. Which is probably more than what the Hawks, who are at least easing in to rebuild mode at this point, can afford to give up.

For the Hawks, the price would likely include Alex DeBrincat (or Nick Schmaltz), their first round draft pick in 2019, and a quality prospect like Henri Jokiharju or Nicolas Beaudin.

Who’s still lovin’ the Breadman at that price?

You can say I’m crazy, but watch: if/when Panarin is dealt, the price will be high, especially if it’s in February, the ultimate seller’s market in the NHL. And don’t kid yourself into thinking that Debrincat or Schmaltz by themselves (or any potential you imagine either has) gets you remotely close to Panarin in actual value.

The Hawks are not one $10 million player away from being a Cup team. They weren’t a Cup team when they had Panarin 2 years ago—and they have more holes on their roster today than they did then.

So, the notion of Panarin returning to Chicago really doesn’t make a lot of sense, either for the Blue Jackets, his current team, or for the Hawks, his former team.

As I said previously, Panarin is an elite or near-elite player. But the math and the market don’t work for the Hawks—or at least not as well as it should were they to overpay to re-acquire him.

It could happen. But even if it did, it probably isn’t a wise move for a team that needs to be adding (and keeping) multiple pieces—instead of blowing the budget on a trip down memory lane, however good it might feel at first.

All I have for now. Comment below and follow @jaeckel

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Center Ice Forums Never say never, but Panarin to Chicago is probably nonsense

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  • #8208
    John Jaeckel
    Participant

    Twitter, the human imagination, and some less than responsible analysis out there has a way of driving convenient, feel-good hockey narratives that do
    [To continue reading full article, click here: Never say never, but Panarin to Chicago is probably nonsense]

    #8210
    Jeff Osborn
    Keymaster

    #8217
    Kevin
    Participant

    Hey JJ, thanks for the blogs. Been reading your stuff for years and comment every now and then.

    Gotta say I disagree on this one though. Panarin has expressed multiple times that money isn’t the most important thing to him and he cares more about the things money can’t buy. His agent said he just loves hockey, he does not love the business side of hockey. Artemi just wants to play. I think he loved playing with Kane and the market that is Chicago. I don’t think it would be crazy to think he would be open to signing long term and with the increase in the cap and Hossa technically in Arizona, they have the space to sign him. I don’t think they would trade for him now by any means. But him coming in free agency on a deal that is a little less than what the open market would give him is not crazy to me. He just wants to play and returning to a familiar place and getting to play with Kane again I think makes some sense for a player like him. I don’t see him chasing money at all.  A trade for him is very unlikely imo, but the article Powers put out didn’t really imply trading it was more of a free agency move. I think trading for him now would be dumb because this team this year is not very likely to compete for a cup, and so theres not a lot of harm in waiting and potentially getting him in free agency. At that point, Jokiharju and Boqvist may be making more strides towards being impact players, Ian Mitchell and Beaudin not too far behind, and all of a sudden things look a little more optimistic. Maybe similar rebound to the sharks when there core got older but than a good wave of young players arrived while the old core still had something left and they are now a regular in the playoffs and maybe not a first tier contender, but in the mix. I would say there aging core was lesser than that of the hawks as it never won a thing, so maybe the hawks get back in the mix too. Not this year but in a year or two they could with Panarin and a stable of very good d prospects.

    #8229
    Breadbag
    Participant

    I think there is about zero chance the Hawks trade for Panarin.  The price is going to be high and it would look oh so bad to trade for a guy you just traded away.  If he does come back to the Hawks, I think it would be as a UFA and that probably isn’t too likely either.  Panarin seems to be they guy wanting to go for the top dollar and that likely won’t be the Hawks.

    #8231
    Kevin
    Participant

    [quote quote=8229]I think there is about zero chance the Hawks trade for Panarin. The price is going to be high and it would look oh so bad to trade for a guy you just traded away. If he does come back to the Hawks, I think it would be as a UFA and that probably isn’t too likely either. Panarin seems to be they guy wanting to go for the top dollar and that likely won’t be the Hawks.

    [/quote]

    where is everyone getting this idea that Panarin is only wanting to chase top dollar? Everything he says indicated otherwise and I am not sure if I am just missing something.

    #8241
    Mark Karkoska
    Participant

    I think Panarin coming back to Chicago is possible however, it won’t be via trade it will be via free agency. This will only be possible if Panain like JT91 wants to fully explore that option. Panarin holds all the cards, whose to say that even if he is traded he is going to sign an extension where ever he goes. If Panarin is looking at hitting free agency it no doubt weakens the Blue Jackets return if he is only going to be a rental. Make no mistake he is still a dynamic forward and some team will pay a hefty price to add him for the playoff run. I think Panarin loves the Org and the team and wouldnt be shocked to see him back.

    #8245
    Anonymous
    Inactive

    Panarin only gets added if Panarin is part of the rebuild; I have written things about trading for Panarin -although it was in the sense of making the offer (who and why) – which did not for a second imply that Columbus would go for it.

    Right now they seem to be in self-deception mode that this all is not happening to them. I can understand it too, in a lot of ways it is similar to Quebec/Lindros -where Lindros had zero interest in playing for the Nordiques (which in a weird twist of irony would have meant he would have actually been playing out of Denver and have won a couple of Stanley Cups … karma I guess.).

    Anyway – I guess the real point -is that even something that the Hawks would consider? I don’t know … if things go pear-shaped this season, the entire GM area could be under new management (maybe even the coaching staff – if you go by what was said earlier in the Summer) … how can you tell? A different GM group might have a different view of things than the current one. In effect it can be – is it something that the current GM group would do? Is it something a hypothetical future one would do (available)?

    The answer is – who knows?  He’s a hell of an entertaining player to watch, and yeh I have been a fan -even when others were talking about ‘can’t predict NHL success by watching YouTube videos of a guy that has never played’. 🙂 In that case, I guess you could – but I agree with the general sentiment – it is pretty rare.  I hope the guy comes back – but then again I had hoped that the Hawks would have signed Brett Hull to play with Roenick … that didn’t happen either. :it’s been a rough life -lol-).

     

    #8248

    As much as I also feel in it nonsense/ improbable, I could see more value in the addition of Panarin, mostly because he brings more excitement and goals than the guys in the systems do.

    As much as I would love to predict DeBrincat’s possible ascension into the player Panarin already is,  I honestly cannot.

    This has nothing top to with the rebuild, because that has to continue.

    The departure of Hartman drew a clear line that just being the top player selected didn’t mean the top selected youngster was gonna get the wallet opened just to not lose that developing player.

    In my my mind, that defense is going to be reworked whether we like it or not and there is going to be more money available when they find new homes for Keith and Seabrook.

    The rebuild may produce a nice smattering of players who will be NHLers, and maybe even some high end ones,  but as this team declines those earlier picks cannot be traded away, or squandered by high risk / reward selections…nonetheless, handing a first rounder to Columbus for what is basically a rental is not smart…and IF a team makes a deal for Panarin, does it REALLY MATTER what his agent tells you about his interest to stay? Isn’t that going to be determined AT A LATER DATE, when Artemi feels the fits (or not)?

    So this guy made the big jump to America, and the first city he played in MUST HAVE BEEN WORKING FOR HIM, b/c he certainly feels a difference in regards to Columbus…and I’ll tell you what: I like Columbus, and he lives walking distance from the rink.

    So he does have a positive memory in regards to Chicago downtown living, Russian Tea Time downtown (and a salary HE can afford to frequent the joint!) and the way he was treated, by every facet of his job.

    I have to think that experience is what he holds to.

    if  he was truly reasonable in his demands, I see him as part of the entertainment years between now and the team that will be rebuilt around him Toews and Kane, and whichever kids actually progress closer to impact.

     

    I guess that is the key.

    Impact / Dynamic

    The acquisition of more of them is a no brainer, IF a team can make it work.

    That is why I cannot handle a NO on this one as a reality check, when the L.A. Kings a team on the decline goes out and plays an old Russian Ilya Kovalchuk, for 6.25 million and don’t see any problem paying one nine years younger 9.5 Million to fill the seats until the team is more than a challenger.

    Because the fans will love it.

     

    #8506
    dahawks8819
    Participant

    Hey John,

    Hope your summer went well.

    One month – and no new blogs – not cool dude!!!!!

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