Your Guide To The Blackhawks’ Offseason

  

 

Get ready. As surprising as last summer was, the one that lies immediately ahead could provide an even more bumpy ride.

The only thing we do know at this point is that Stan Bowman and Joel Quenneville will be back next year—and everything else is subject to change.

Starting from the broadest of perspectives, it’s hard to say whether the Hawks are in full or partial rebuild mode, or if there’s an actual belief/confidence that moves here and there can elevate the team back into Cup contention.

And while I haven’t heard this specifically, I’m not sure the team knows either.

Whither Crow?

The big variable is the health and long-term prognosis for Corey Crawford. While some take umbrage at any suggestion his health issue is anything but the concussion issues that have been reported, rumors of other issues continue to fly. Either way, doesn’t matter, whatever’s going on with Crawford was enough to keep him out of action for nearly the last four months of the season. He’s also going to turn 34 this year.

A healthy and ready-to-go Crawford makes a return to contention plausible—not necessarily likely. But certainly, it’s a big box checked, allowing the team to focus its efforts this offseason elsewhere.

If Crawford can’t play, or If he is diminished, then the task of a quick adjustment and return to glory becomes pretty much impossible—regardless of potential LTIR dollars.

And the cap

By numerous Twitter estimations, the Hawks will have some cap room to work with this summer—perhaps quite a bit. Much of that depends on where the cap eventually settles, some resolution of Marian Hossa’s contract, and even what happens with Crawford.

But even assuming Stan Bowman has a lot of money to work with, keep in mind the following. Free agency is expensive, especially so if the cap goes up a great deal. So will salaries. It’s simple market dynamics.

Further, the Hawks have a long list of needs. To varying degrees, rookies Alex Debrincat, Jan Rutta and David Kampf have worked themselves into the picture for next year. Youngsters like Anthony Duclair Andreas Martinsen, Vince Hinostroza, Jordan Oesterle, John Hayden and Erik Gustafsson also appear to be pieces that fit the puzzle next year—maybe.

Reality bites

The truth is 33-39-10 is a dreadful record—and accurately reflects the quality of the talent on the roster.

There’s a raging debate over whether Joel Quenneville has “lost the room,” but in all likelihood, the “engine” that will drive this team anywhere next year remains the veteran core of Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook, and Brandon Saad. Factor a healthy Crawford and Debrincat in there as well. The point is, Quenneville has been to the top of the mountain with most of those players—more than once.

And it’s not to say that the supporting cast of youngsters is no good, it’s just that there remain some missing pieces, and some of the youngsters were asked to do more this year than they were ready to do.

What is missing

For all the projections about Rutta as a top 4 defenseman, or the pleasant surprise of Oesterle, or Gustafsson’s obvious offensive ability, this Hawk defense doesn’t suppress shots well, allows opposing forwards to do business right in front of the Hawk goalie, and gets caught out of position—a lot.

It’s not enough—and kind of a waste of time—to expect Crawford to resume his role of “hiding” the deficiencies of a poor blueline this season.

Sure you can hope that over the summer, Connor Murphy becomes more consistent, Rutta’s style can change to be more effective along the wall, Gustafsson stops being a turnover machine and Oesterle can clear the front of the net going up against players who outweigh him by 30 pounds. Or that Keith and Seabrook can go into the Way Back Machine and become what they were three years ago.

Or Bowman can use some of that newly minted cap space and acquire a legitimate young two-way defenseman or two.

As pointed out earlier, the cost for that in free agency would likely be high. And the pickings are slim this year to boot.

So what about the draft, or a trade?

The draft

In the draft, if the Hawks were fortunate enough to win the draft lottery, the obvious choice is a guy who could step in tomorrow and upgrade the blueline, Swedish defender, Rasmus Dahlin.

However, the Hawks likely won’t win it. But they will likely pick in the top ten for the first time since 2007, and the franchise can’t afford to miss on this pick.

Keith, Seabrook, Toews and Crawford will all be 30-35 years old on draft day.

So it would make sense that the Hawks grab one of a handful of other fine defense prospects (Evan Bouchard, Adam Boqvist, Quinn Hughes, etc) or the best projectable, true center prospect available with their pick, and perhaps a goalie with Nashville’s pick near the end of the first round.

But after Dahlin, it’s highly unlikely any other draft prospect is truly NHL ready this year. And maybe you just draft the highest upside player, regardless of position.

Trades

For years, the Hawks always seemed to be looking for a 2nd line center. Then for a couple of years, it was the search for the elusive top 6 left wing. Now the focus may be shifting back to center, where it can be argued perhaps two of the current roster’s 4 centers are really almost like wings playing center (Artem Anisimov to a degree and Nick Schmaltz quite a bit).

Viktor Ejdsell appears to need some time in Rockford.

Both Anisimov and Schmaltz are “responsible” defensively as you might want a center to be, but Anisimov is ponderously slow and Schmaltz is pretty much a pushover when he has to go mano a mano around the net with larger centers and defensemen—which the Western Conference has in abundance.

Further, both are somewhere between mediocre and atrocious in the faceoff circle.

There are “experts” out there who have claimed that “faceoffs don’t matter.” And, in a larger, aggregate sense, they aren’t the most important statistic to ponder.

But situationally, they are incredibly important.

If you’re going to be an effective possession style team, you need to possess the puck. Conversely, late in close games or killing penalties, defensive zone draws are crucial.

There are other schools of thought out there that Anisimov is probably overpaid as now a third line center (agreed), and that Schmaltz will improve physically and in the faceoff circle (not so agreed).

Schmaltz may improve, and he may not. After all, three NHL organizations have invested heavily in Anisimov improving in the dot—and he hasn’t.

So the Hawks may need another dynamic, competent, 2-way centerman. They don’t grow on trees, and as with the defenseman they absolutely need this year, the free agency pickings are slim.

And they may need another goalie.

So that leaves you with the trade market.

Where the Hawks remain strong and deep is at wing, or “wings playing center.” Patrick Kane, Brandon Saad, Alex Debrincat, Anthony Duclair, Vince Hinostroza, arguably Schmaltz, and the Hawks played the promising (though not NHL ready) Dylan Sikura at wing in his brief tenure this spring.

The Hawks could deal from that strength to shore up center and/or defense. Kane’s not going anywhere, and you’re not getting much at this point for Duclair. So an upgrade elsewhere could cost you something “dear” like Hinostroza, Schmaltz, Debrincat or even Saad (perhaps packaged with some other spare parts, prospects or picks).

Bottom line, Bowman will have to give to get.

And we all should avoid falling into that familiar mindset that every trade of this or that popular Hawk player or prospect means purely subtraction. You don’t do a deal like that just to cut salary (not as much of an issue this offseason at all). You deal form depth/strength to add to areas in weakness and improve team chemistry.

And if you lack confidence based on Bowman’s past trades (which might be a legitimate concern) then we have another issue entirely.

These are just one man’s opinions—and in fact, there are a lot of ways the Hawks could go this summer. Another huge possible outcome is some permanent resolution of the situation with Hossa’s contract and cap space.

But the questions themselves are seismic.

Questions

Retool or full rebuild?

Be patient with Murphy, Schmaltz, Duclair and others—or get what you can for them now to improve elsewhere?

How much more shelf-life do Seabrook, Keith, Toews and Crawford have?

What is Anisimov worth—with the Hawks or in trade elsewhere? After the (since verified) trade discussions between the Hawks and Blue Jackets for Anisimov were originally reported here on The-Rink.com, someone else later reported that all Columbus offered was a third round draft pick. That seems hard to believe when a third round pick is what the Hawks gave up for Tomas Jurco the season before.

Do the Hawks have a first string goalie this year? And if so, do they have a backup anywhere in their system?

Can this team get bigger, faster, meaner and equally or more skilled through a series of solid offseason moves—or is Bowman truly just a numbers guy, whose own number is up?

It should be interesting and we will report on it, and provide analysis, sharing the rumors as we hear them, too.

Please comment below.

 

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Center Ice Forums Your Guide To The Blackhawks’ Offseason

Viewing 20 posts - 1 through 20 (of 29 total)
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  • #6502
    John Jaeckel
    Participant

      Get ready. As surprising as last summer was, the one that lies immediately ahead could provide an even more bumpy ride. The only thing we do kn
    [To continue reading full article, click here: Your Guide To The Blackhawks’ Offseason]

    #6503
    Alan Parsons
    Participant

    Lots and lots and lots of young defensemen prospects.  Some good, some mediocre, some unknown.  They cant keep 8 D on the roster next year again, can they?  That obviously didnt work.  I think they will need to deal at least 2 if not 3 of their younger D men.  If they can find a taker for Gus or Oesterle, or both, then godspeed boys.  If they can package any of their D, they need to do it.  For picks, whatever.  Clear the Oesterle and Gus cap space, id rather have one 2.5 M defender than those two combined.

    I wonder if Braden Holtby and Crawford could split time and make a nice tandem?  Holtby has been usurped in DC by Grubauer.  Gotta think they will be letting Holtby go.  That might make a really nice two headed monster.   Especially if they can get DC to eat some of his salary.   Probably impossible, but he is on the outs.  Interesting times in DC.  Id love Grubauer but he probably isnt going anywhere.

    #6504
    Chico Maki
    Participant

    Nice write up John.

    I think the “unknown” going into the summer is Crawford.  If he’s healthy, he’s more than serviceable for next season.  He’s a two time Cup winner.  But, he’s also 34.  One way or the other, Bowman will need to find at least one goalie, if not two.   They can possibly LTIR Crawford (?) and free up his cap space (?) for a trade.

    There’s way too many defenseman on this roster–and not many of them are all that good at playing defense.  We can assume Seabrook and Keith will be back.  (Unless Stan REALLY blows up the team for a massive re-build) Seabrook’s contract makes him almost untradeable, unless the Hawks include a young “sweetner”.

    But between Forsling, Gustafson, Rutta, Oesterle, Hillman (Rockford next year) and Murphy.   At least 2 of those gotta go.  Forsling has some upside, but has never been able to put it together.  Gustafsson thinks he’s a winger, (or Bobby Orr) Oesterle scares the hell out of me when he’s trying to defend. Rutta started nice, then faded.  Murphy has physicality, something only Seabrook posses, but is slow afoot and makes asinine decisions.

    At least 2 of that group needs to be packaged, along with picks, prospects for a legit Center.

    Can Bowman package Hossa’s contract to a bottom dwelling team?  Some GM might like the $5 million cap hit of Hossa’s deal and only $1 million of actual dollars.

    What will the Hawks be getting in Toews next year?  Clearly, he’s NOT what he once was.  Right now, offensively, he’s a 3rd line center.

    It would be sweet if the Hawks win the lottery–and pick first.  But, the odds of that happening are about the same as Jurco leading the team next year in goals.

    At this point, if I was Bowman, everything and everybody–except Kane–is on the table.  And, even Kane, if another team blows your doors off with an offer than you can’t pass up.  John McDonut and marketing be damned.  Kane and Toews are the “face” of this organization, but if the goal is to WIN, every player is subject to be moved.

    IMO, this is a make or break off season for Bowman.  He needs to hit a grand slam.  Or he needs to go.  (Frankly, he should have been fired years ago.).

    #6505
    matt_ahrens
    Participant

    2018-2019 is a critical year for 2, 7, 19, 50, and probably even 88. If they come back strong and focused and the team has a solid year, they’ll be back. If they stumble out of the gate, they could be gone at the TDL or IF the CBA gets reopened and compliance buyouts become a thing again. I tend to believe they’ll all have better years next year.

    I tend to agree about Schmaltz and AA. The team would be better with upgrades at 2nd and 3rd line center next year. I’d like to keep Schmaltz as a wing. AA? Meh. It wouldn’t be terrible if he was the 3rd line center, but it wouldn’t be good either.

    It kind of seems like the current roster has a lot of competition for the 6th and 7th defensemen and the 4th line; but some big holes above those slots on the depth chart with no real answers. I’d really like to see Stan add some guys with solid NHL experience; a couple defensemen, a couple centers, a winger or two, a back up goalie, etc.

     

    #6506
    Mr. T
    Participant

    Nice post and it all begins and ends with Corey. If healthy a decent backup

    is needed, if not healthy a new #1 is on the books and retooling elsewhere

    becomes all that much harder.

    Now back to McD, is he calling all the shot’s? If so no rebuild is on the

    horizon, cause marketing is numero uno dos tres.

    Can Hossa be packaged to Ott w/Rutta/Vinnie for say Pageu/Smith?

    Maybe up the ante and get Duschene? Riley Nash a free agent a possibility?

    On the D side maybe one secondary signing as in Moore /DeHann/Hickey/Cole

    could do the trick to make the backline respectable.

    As we agree on it all begins and ends with Corey, in the middle do we trust in

    Stan to pull of a retool/rebuild or a wtf rewin? Especially with marketing 101

    looking at everything?

    As good as we can be a Cup challenger isn’t on the horizon as the team exists

    or as they play.

    #6514
    Riozzo
    Participant

    Well done JJ.  After reading your blog I can only think I might make it of the season ticket waiting list next season.  Uggg….

    #6517
    Indydog
    Participant

    The topic most people dont want to talk about are the massive contracts for Toews and Kane which are crippling this team from keeping or acquiring players. I really like what Toews does but he is not a $10m player; he is just not. If he was scoring 40-50 goals per I would give it to him. Kane as well, nice player but not scoring 40-50 per as well.

    Additionally, the D is small compared to the other Western teams and I dont agree that you have to be small to get out of the zone. I look at the other teams in the West and their D men are big, bruising and protect the slot.

    My remedy, trade Toews, Keith, & Seabrook for anything you can get and call it was it is (a salary dump) to acquire/draft younger/bigger players that can compete. I would bet Mike Babcock would listen to some deals for Toews and take the salary hit to get that leadership. Tallon might do the same to pick-up Seabrooke and Keith and they would consider getting back with Tallon. Just some ideas??

    #6521
    John Jaeckel
    Participant

    Thx guys, great comments

    #6522
    billyf65
    Participant

    The Blackhawks also have a few promising D prospects — Jokiharju, who seemed to adjust pretty quickly to North American ice and kind of tore up the WHL this year and Dennis Gilbert who is the kind of defensive defenseman the Hawks lost when they traded Hammer (one of those, “gosh I don’t love seeing him go but I get the logic” trades) come to mind.

    Hillman’s D partner at DU is also a Blackhawks prospect, but is several years away.

    My concern is that there is a ton of talent that is a few years away, including many of the seemingly endless string of promising forwards in the system. I’m not sure how they reconcile those two seemingly contradictory elements of team assets right now.

    #6524
    fattybeef
    Participant

    [quote quote=6517]The topic most people dont want to talk about are the massive contracts for Toews and Kane which are crippling this team from keeping or acquiring players. I really like what Toews does but he is not a $10m player; he is just not. If he was scoring 40-50 goals per I would give it to him. Kane as well, nice player but not scoring 40-50 per as well. Additionally, the D is small compared to the other Western teams and I dont agree that you have to be small to get out of the zone. I look at the other teams in the West and their D men are big, bruising and protect the slot. My remedy, trade Toews, Keith, & Seabrook for anything you can get and call it was it is (a salary dump) to acquire/draft younger/bigger players that can compete. I would bet Mike Babcock would listen to some deals for Toews and take the salary hit to get that leadership. Tallon might do the same to pick-up Seabrooke and Keith and they would consider getting back with Tallon. Just some ideas??

    [/quote]

    You do understand that Patrick Kane, Since coming into the league, has the third most points behind Crosby and OV yes? And that in terms of PPG over that same 9 year period he is 5th over all? The dude is absolutely worth 10 million. Not just for his excellent and consistent point production over the last 9 years but the fact that not a whole lot of players have been better.

    Worth every penny. And market value based on what those other players make \ will make (like McDavid for example).

    #6525
    Chico Maki
    Participant

    Given his immature past, Kane is the last guy I worry about, going forward, on this team.  The guy flat out produces.  Even with a merry go round of line mates, the guy makes everyone he plays with, better.

    #6527
    fattybeef
    Participant

    Oh but overall. As the Jets and even Predators have demonstrated the last few years, the difference between being borderline playoff and a contender is a few key pieces away.

    A key signing or two at center, flipping some of the excess (Saad, Debrincat, Sikura maybe Schmaltz, AA) only so many can play LW or C.

    They have the assets – not a big surplus – but enough to make at least one or two key moves but they will need to be ruthless and I think they will ultimately need to spend some money.

    If Osterle is on the opening day roster and the Hossa money is still on the books then I don’t think there will be a lot to get excited about.

    #6533
    Mister Ricochet
    Participant

    [quote quote=6504]And maybe you just draft the highest upside player, regardless of position.[/quote]

    This.  Reading JJ’s look at the Hawks, it’s like looking at that 3rd eye you avoid at all costs of looking at in the mirror, it looks dire in that there are soooooooo many holes and questions that follow.  Unfortunately, and to me incredibly, we will not get ANY fresh eyes on the organIzational roster so my only hope is that UNTIL they do they draft the best available player regardless of position in every rd save for maybe a goalie in the middle rounds.

    If this is done with an eye to 2-3 yrs out the next GM and coach will have a stronger hand.  This fan has little confidence in the GM or coach anymore with too many opportunities squandered both on and off the ice to expect better results not to mention the GM and coach can’t carry out a simple change of direction for more than 30 games as this yr showed.

    Simply said you can’t fix a problem until you admit you have one and StanBow and Q are a part of the problem so my hope is they draft the best player available and not for need.  They ain’t winning jack next yr so wasting cap space on top FA or drafting for need will put the franchise back even more.

    Question.  Do you offer sheet a 23 yr old Matt Dumba or 24 yr old Brandon Montour?  IMO Dumba is worth a high cap hit and resources used to get that done and Montour as well to a lesser degree only because his body of work is smaller making him less of a sure thing.   I’d also look at UFA Kyle Brodziak as a solid bottom 6 plug at center (3C) until the Hawks can shore up the position.

    RFA and UFA list:  https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2019

     

    #6534
    Mister Ricochet
    Participant

    [quote quote=6504] At this point, if I was Bowman, everything and everybody–except Kane–is on the table. And, even Kane, if another team blows your doors off with an offer than you can’t pass up.

    [/quote]

    Yes and yes.  Anybody see the MN-WPG game or even LA-LVG game yesterday?  And we know what NSH brings   ….. This Hawk team is eons away from contending.

    With StanBow and McShovel Face back there will be no new vision but I agree that no option shouldn’t be considered.  I think we’ll have to wait a yr or two for that and by then a Kaner will be 30 and possibly tired of the organIzation and the new GM might even consider moving him for a haul.

    #6542
    Under Qs moustache
    Participant

    the Hawks have obviously regressed from this time last year. Now in addition to no depth at center, they’ve added weakness in goal. In addition to smallish defenders, they’ve added “hockey stick ballet” to the defensive system, that leaves the hapless “goaltender of the day” out to dry most nights. Cory may be injured but he’s well enough to see this dumpster fire re-occurring next year. Without a decent backup to play 30 solid games or more, the Hawks are a lottery pick team again.

    There is an abundance of 3rd and 4th line centers, with several playing out of position as wings or top 2 centers. Aside from 19 nobody seems to win the draw over half the time, I have hope that Kamph and Schmaltz will improve. 15 is as good in the dot and as fast as he’s ever going to be, so unless the Hawks decide that there is a better player to take his role with either Kane or the 3rd liners, he’s here to stay. Trading him with no replacement puts the Hawks on the path to be worse than Edmonton and Vancouver next year.

    As I see it what talent the Hawks have is mostly in potential, not in NHL ready, so the mild rebuild to hopefully capture some fire with the ageing core for one more run is the management viewpoint. Sadly that window has closed.

    A trade here for a player or 3 will quickly make this team better, but not a contender. There are way too many if’s to sustain an 82 game season and playoff. The West is way above where the Hawks would be with a couple of new players. Last night’s Winn-Minn game was all one needed to see; the Hawks couldn’t beat either team in a 7 game series as current comprised, and neither are a lock to go to the finals, as that road is through Nashville. LVGN again proved the sceptics wrong by winning a 1 goal game, so don’t count them out as a regular season fluke, they might just be for real.

    #6547
    DK002
    Participant

    John another great read and good discussion.  How does Stan ‘the sham’ Bowman get out of this – you’re looking at basically the same roster next season.  And the secondary players he’s brought in are not even close to the depth this team once had until Stan was forced to move those guys thanks to his balance sheet.

    Can Stan use his magic decoder ring or the way back machine Mr. Peabody?  Nope.  I’m even more concerned that Bowman would be allowed to trade core pieces – his trade record wreaks.  John you’ve noted that Bowman was fleeced by both Snow (Leddy) and Nil (Sharp) those were two huge deals and the consequential moves from them that have effected the team moving forward. Sharp’s trade in particular.

    As far as Crawford –  how much can CC cover up with a defense that basically lets other teams park in front of the net.  And will Crawford actually be ready to go.  The core is now 4 and age and time has caught up.  And let’s get to the reality that teams aren’t going to lineup to take any of those contracts except perhaps Kane’s.

    Start with a new GM or Pres. of Hockey Ops and let them make the calls – oh this will be next year…after another year of no playoffs.  Wonder how Rocky will like that.

     

    #6548
    fattybeef
    Participant

    [quote quote=6547]John another great read and good discussion. How does Stan ‘the sham’ Bowman get out of this – you’re looking at basically the same roster next season. And the secondary players he’s brought in are not even close to the depth this team once had until Stan was forced to move those guys thanks to his balance sheet. Can Stan use his magic decoder ring or the way back machine Mr. Peabody? Nope. I’m even more concerned that Bowman would be allowed to trade core pieces – his trade record wreaks. John you’ve noted that Bowman was fleeced by both Snow (Leddy) and Nil (Sharp) those were two huge deals and the consequential moves from them that have effected the team moving forward. Sharp’s trade in particular. As far as Crawford – how much can CC cover up with a defense that basically lets other teams park in front of the net. And will Crawford actually be ready to go. The core is now 4 and age and time has caught up. And let’s get to the reality that teams aren’t going to lineup to take any of those contracts except perhaps Kane’s. Start with a new GM or Pres. of Hockey Ops and let them make the calls – oh this will be next year…after another year of no playoffs. Wonder how Rocky will like that.

    [/quote]

     

    Lol, Spend money. Give up a high to mid round pick to lose the Hossa money. Lose the AA contract. Even if it is for just a 3rd round pick #salarydump.

    Sign Tavares

    Get another depth center with NHL experience that can help out with the kids and win draws.

    Trade for a top 4 defender. Shoot, a 2 year deal for Mike Green that totals 7ish million wouldn’t be a terrible idea.

    And don’t worry about goaltending and just try to outscore everyone like in 2010.

     

     

    #6549
    Alan Parsons
    Participant

    Mike Green?  You think Seabrook is bad?  Wait until Mike Green is being turnstyled at the blueline.

    #6550
    fattybeef
    Participant

    [quote quote=6549]Mike Green? You think Seabrook is bad? Wait until Mike Green is being turnstyled at the blueline.

    [/quote]

    But he is a NHL player and better than Osterle, Rutta and probably Gus in terms overall play. And he can make a pass out of the zone which is a good thing and also hit the net with a shot.

    Not a lot of options and he can probably be had for not a lot of term which is attractive. More of a place holder while you wait for some of the kids to come through.

    For how bad Seabrook has been Seabrook is still a NHL calibre defender. Same for Green. Maybe not a top player anymore but certainly not completely useless and better than most of the guys they have now. Otherwise, it is move some talent and picks for  someone like OEL or Faulk or play chicken with Ottawa for Karlsson. That being said, I don’t think the Hawks have the gumption to come off a younger player and high pick(s) for any of those guys. Though that is what I would prefer them do.

    #6551
    John Jaeckel
    Participant

    Love the comments and discussion. Thx guys.

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