4 Ways The Blackhawks Can Improve This Offseason

  

While armchair Blackhawk GMs across the twitters have been posting their hypothetical 2018-19 lineups of late, I’m going to leave that to those actually paid to do it.

Instead, in this article, I’m going to point out what the Blackhawk front office and coaching staff should try to achieve this offseason in a larger sense. Whether they trade Marian Hossa’s contract or put him in LTIR again, whether they draft a Brady Tkachuk or an Evan Bouchard or prospect TBD, whether they have $5 million or $10 million in cap room, the bigger question is, what are the results and changed results you want to see next season?

Not so much wins and losses (duh), but what will lead to more wins and losses.

Frankly, neither John Tavares nor Erik Karlsson will be wearing the Indianhead next season, or any season soon. And while the pain of this season has caused me to feel that what would be best for this organization would be a near- or total teardown and rebuild, that likely isn’t happening either.

So regardless of how much roster turnover we see this offseason or not, there are four distinct areas where Stan Bowman, along with Joel Quenneville and his staff, should be looking for dramatic improvement next season.

 Let’s start with the statistical insights into what is going wrong this season.

Oddly enough, as bad as the Hawks have been this season, going by the old fallback of interwebs experts and the basis of so many “hawwwt takes,” the Hawks are third in the league (53%) at even strength Corsi For %.

But let’s remember what Corsi is—aggregate shots directed at the opponents net, and by the opponent at yours.

The Hawks do launch a lot of shot attempts 5-on-5—3533 so far this season which is first in the league, and about 50 more than the second ranked team.

But less of their shots, comparatively, make it to the net—they’re presently 4th in the league in shots on net per game. Which is good, but remember, they actually attempt more shots than anyone else, and by a wide margin.

The point?

A comparatively high percentage of Hawk shots attempted don’t go “on net”—either getting blocked or missing the net entirely.

Which likely points to where the Hawks actually attempt a higher percentage of their shots—the perimeter of the offensive zone, as opposed to closer in to the net and in the slot.

On the other end of the ice, the Hawks are 20th in blocked shots. Which is not good.

And thus, even though the Hawks have fairly gaudy Corsi as a team, directing more shots at the opponent’s net than the opponent does at theirs, generally speaking a higher proportion of opponents’ shots reach the Chicago net.

And that’s where the real problem lies—on defense—which seems to be the larger issue for a team that gives up a lot of shots on net (11th highest in the league).

“But, but, when ‘Crow’ comes back, it won’t matter, right?”

Well, when, or if, Corey Crawford returns healthy to the Chicago crease, yes, it should (could) make a difference—as it has for the last couple of seasons as the Hawks have become an increasingly underwater team in the metrics that matter: actual shots on net.

But when (or if) Crawford returns—he will be nearing 34 years of age and coming off a serious bout of post-concussion syndrome.

So perhaps, instead of leaning on Crawford to hide these systemic deficiencies that have emerged since the summer of 2015—when the Hawks were the best team in hockey—the Hawks need to really address those deficiencies.

Here’s how:

  1. Block more shots

In 2014-15, the Hawks were nothing special in this regard—in the regular season. What may have informed that, however, was the number of shots attempted against a team that typically dominated in offensive zone possession, and was therefore probably relatively low.

However, when the playoffs rolled around, they were exceptional at blocking shots, averaging nearly 16 blocks a game—eclipsed only by Western Conference runner-up Anaheim.

And during the regular season that year, the Hawks got at least 100 blocks from each top 4 defenseman.

This year, the Hawks’ two oldest defensemen lead the team in blocks, Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith with 136 and 133, respectively. There’s a big drop off from there, though Jordan Oesterle (surprisingly, to me at least) comes in third with 73 blocks in 44 games, which pro-rates out to a respectable 140-ish for the year.

But then there’s Jan Rutta with 49 in 46 games, Erik Gustafsson 26 in 23 games, And Connor Murphy with 72 in 64.

So if GM Stan Bowman is planning to improve in this area, then the recently re-signed Rutta and Gustafsson—both of whom appear to be in the Hawks’ NHL plans next year—need to improve.

As would Murphy, if he’s still around.

  1. Win more defensive zone faceoffs.

The Hawks, as a team, are 23rd in the NHL in defensive zone faceoff percentage at and 14th in the league in the offensive zone this season. In 2014-15, the Hawks were simply a much better team in the dot overall, and ranked 15th in d-zone draws and 2nd in o-zone faceoffs.

That year, the team’s primary defensive zone option (after Jonathan Toews) was Marcus Kruger, who was 51% in his end. Toews was 53.7%.

This year, Toews is at 55% in the d-zone, and David Kampf is a surprising 55.2%—but that’s in just 34 games—and many more defensive zone draws have been taken by Artem Anisimov, who is an anemic 45.1%.

Why all the fascination with defensive zone draws?

Because, typically, they either lead to offensive breakouts or to opposing shots—and there appears to be a direct correlation between the Hawks fall-off in faceoffs over the last 3 seasons and their shots on net numbers (both ways).

  1. On the offensive end, get more shots on net.

Very simply, as discussed above, the Hawks need to miss less shots and have less shots blocked. This would broadly indicate operating and actually initiating shots less on the perimeter—and more close to the net.

 

  1. Fix the power play

Anecdotally, the Hawks’ power play appears to have been stronger over the last handful of games—however, at 15.9% and 28th in the league, the weight of evidence suggests they need to be much better next year.

So for all the talk about drafting Rasmus Dahlin or Brady Tkachuk or the likely pipe dreams of signing Karlsson or Tavares, the Hawks should have a relatively simple set of guidelines for their offseason shopping.

  1. Add a defenseman (or defensemen) who can not only skate and play positionally, but are also willing to get in shooting lanes and block shots. Stan Bowman’s work so far on next year’s defense (extending Gustafsson and Rutta) really fails in this regard.
  2. Either pray that Kampf becomes a player Joel Quenneville will rely on very heavily in penalty kill and defensive zone situations (over Anisimov), or add a 2-way center who is strong on faceoffs.
  3. Add a forward or two who are either bigger, or play bigger, and who can create more opportunities closer in to the net. John Hayden and Vince Hinostroza both show some promise in this regard, but neither are what you would call bona fide “road graders” who can play in your top 6 either.
  4. Have a Come To Jesus organizationally on the power play: is it the players, or the scheme? Or both? Be willing to fix either, even if it means on-ice personnel or coaching changes.

These changes, and a healthy Crawford (an unhealthy one adding a 5th point to the shopping list/guidelines above) could vault the Hawks right back into contention next season.

They aren’t the kind of “sexy” changes (Karlsson, Tavares) that part of the fanbase seems to be clamoring for, but they could correct a lot of fundamental issues with the Hawk team—putting their better, skilled players in greater position to succeed.

Please comment below.

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Center Ice Forums 4 Ways The Blackhawks Can Improve This Offseason

Viewing 20 posts - 1 through 20 (of 21 total)
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  • #6044
    John Jaeckel
    Participant

    While armchair Blackhawk GMs across the twitters have been posting their hypothetical 2018-19 lineups of late, I’m going to leave that to those actual
    [To continue reading full article, click here: 4 Ways The Blackhawks Can Improve This Offseason]

    #6045
    Chico Maki
    Participant

    A Dman who blocks shots. You mean like Hjarmarrson.

    Neither Rutta or Gustafson are that kinda Dmen.  Hawks need a younger quicker Brent Sopel type.  A guy willing to stick his body in the way.

    They also need Dmen who can clear the crease.  Too often opposing players camp out, have Smores and weenies in front of our net.  Only Seabrook really does that. Or he used to do that.

    The power play is laughable. Just pathetic. I’m not sure if it’s players or scheme.  But i do know, too many times players on the PP are too busy looking for that pretty pass…and not just trying to get shots on net and jumping on a rebound.  Net front presence.

    #6046
    6628
    Participant

    Agree with the post. Fundamentally they’ve not been good for quite a while. Get back to basics, which includes playing physical in front of their own net. It’s no surprise to me Crawford gets injured. He gets run more than any goaile in the league. Offense starts with defense and vice versa.

    #6047
    Hank_Greenberg
    Participant

    Great piece, JJ. I agree that all the perimeter shooting (and the resulting missed or blocked shots) is a major issue. It would be interesting to see a breakdown of where shots were coming from in 2009-15. Of course, I’m much too lazy to do that analysis myself — where’s LBR when you need her??

    #6048
    hawkeytalk
    Participant

    Nice write up JJ. Still scratching my head over the Gus and Rutta extensions – only thing we can hope is that they aren’t relied upon heavily next year, and StanBo finds another way to shore up the defense.

    I have a question… What are the thoughts on Connor Murphy for next year? He seems in that bubble of not quite living up to his contract, while still offering some untapped potential and upside – that makes it a tough call, but would like to see him around next year. Curious what people on here think about that.

    I’m pumped about the young forwards – Schmaltz is legit, and Vinnie, Highmore, Kampf and Hayden look noticeable just about every game. If the team can tighten up the D, this young group is a great compliment to the older guys.

    #6049
    hawkeytalk
    Participant

    Also, anybody notice Seabs has been great recently? Not a dynamo by any means but he looks 110% better than he did earlier this season.

    #6050
    matt_ahrens
    Participant

    As bad as Anisimov’s 45% is, that seems like an improvement for him versus years past.

    I’d like to see them add at least one middle six forward.

    And hope Crawford regains his form quickly.

    But it seems like the team needs at least three more NHL level defensemen.

    #6051
    Anonymous
    Inactive

    And while the Blackhawks are at it, please get rid of “Chelsea Dagger.”  It’s so…..2010!

    #6052
    Bob Rose Jr
    Participant

    >Well said, JJ

    >Shot blocking and Dzone draw wins — sharp insight there.

    >Also, so many Hawk shooters refuse to shoot if there is an opponent near them or in front of them, even if the Hawk shooter can get a good shot on net off.

    >Regardless of the stats about shots taken, this team has passed up a boatload of prime shot attempts all year in search of the tap-in play.

    >Many quality shot opportunities instead ended with: pass being intercepted, or puck carrier further skating towards the net into tighter coverage and turning the puck over, or puck carrier pulling up and putting the puck into a 50/50 area where the Hawks lose the 1 on 1 battle.

    >Hawks as a team do not shoot the puck well — very few players have shown a consistent ability to put the puck on net.

    >Hawks team shooting appears to be all about velocity, instead of shot location and quick releases.

    >Saad should experiment with a stick the allows him to get the puck up quickly and under the bar from in close — even when he is moving at high speed — am reminded that Hossa switched to Kempny’s stick and had a goal scoring rebound year.

    >Regarding the power play, have seen reports that Mike Sullivan, the Penguins coach, basically said to the players, “OK guys. YOU run the PP. It’s on you. Do what needs to be done to score.”

    >PP puck & player movement philosophy, schemes, set plays, personnel — all need to deliver

     

    #6054
    Tim M.
    Participant

    Need more Dave Bollands than John Tavares’. Need more Bill Whites than Erik Karlssons. Sam Pollock thought so much about winning d-zone face offs that he got Doug Jarvis for that purpose.

    #6055
    DK002
    Participant

    John great write up as always…

    sadly you forgot how to best fix the Hawks this offseason and that would start with firing Bowman.

    The alternative is firing Q and I’m thinking this is what’s going to happen.  He’d have another gig should he want it in a couple of hours…You could see teams lining up…Bowman yeah not so much.  But its certainly been said in regard to Q – PP horrid, message growing stale – at some point you do need a new voice.  How bout letting Dineen go and bringing in Adam Oates to run the PP?

    Personally I’d love to see Bowman ‘reassigned’ and Ron Francis running the Hawks as would others I’m sure.  Sadly John McD.  doesn’t get it.  And as much of a f-ck up as Bowman has been here with his overpays and bad trades here comes another head scratcher for your defense which has been a trainwreck to put it mildly this season.   You probably could have had both players cheaper…but alas 200k here 300k there adds up.

    So basically you’ve locked in the same defense for next season. Personally I think Rutta has been the better of the two not withstanding Gus’ two big shots on Saturday at Bahsten.  I saw enough of Osterle in the Ducks game the other weekend where he channeled his inner Rundblad.

    A two way center – hmm how bout Danault…oh wait… meanwhile how many more shifts do we have to watch the wunderkind Tomas Jurco on the ice?  You mention and we’ve seen it on offense the perimeter Hawks have been really making their mark this season.  It’s rare when we see someone actually go to the front of the net.  Shaw’s absence is really felt.  Although Hayden has looked decent in the last two games and we’ve seen AA at times as well.  But he’s older, slow and below at the dot.

    One thing that is noticeable is how easy this team is to play against there’s absolutely no pushback…and we saw it again over the weekend with DuClair and the ever innocent Brad Marchand…I’m not talking meathead hockey, but it would be nice to see this team have some grit and physicality – heck a pulse.  But the stick check ballet and parade of smurf forwards continues.

    Let’s face this team has lost a ton of depth –  Bad trades along with an aging core full of NMCs and we can see what Bowman has done starting with the Leddy trade in 14 and on from there.  And we haven’t even touched on the biggest issue yet and that’s Crawford.  We really don’t know his situation.  And if he’ll be able to play.  If he’s done…well that’s another huge hole and we’ve seen Bowman’s choice in tenders this season.  Wowsa.  It’s looking like a couple of really long winters coming up at the Madhouse on Madison…I’m sure they sent out renewals for season tickets already…gulp.

    #6056
    Tyler Majewski
    Participant

    Need a 2 or 3LC. for not only faceoffs, but it will just fill out the lineup so much more.

    20-19-12

    8-15-88

    as your top six, then an FA and Kampf to center the 3rd and fourth lines. Plenty of wingers in the system, plus Wingels coming back, to fill in from there. will give hawks a lot more depth and help in Dzone winning draws, as mentioned above

    #6060
    Anonymous
    Inactive

    If there’s concern in the organization about Crawford next year, they need to put him on LTIR before the season is over.  That will allow them to start next season with him on LTIR, and not have to squeeze his $6M under the cap on day 1.

    #6061
    Under Qs moustache
    Participant

    good write up JJ.

    What you have here is a “no-check” hockey team in a “check hockey” league. The perimeter shooting, not clearing out the crease, losing puck battles along the boards, over passing, passing up shots in the prime shooting areas, and generally playing like they’re in a beer league half the time are the calling cards. It’s lazy hockey, and doesn’t win much, unless the opposition is less interested. Crow’s value to this team is now more apparent than ever, as he kept this team in the game any number of times this year and last, disguising the holes and the poor play. The back ups have played well at times, stealing a game here and there.

    This doesn’t change til the game plan changes. The lack of NHL depth due to cap issues doesn’t allow for 40 minute efforts, non scoring special teams, poor net presence, an unprotected goaltender and perimeter play. The Hawks can’t out talent anymore. So the game plan has to change. The Hawks will have to out work the opponent to win. That’s on Q, Toews, and all the assistant coaches. Leadership and direction have been as bad as the PP all year.

    It seems that there is talent on this team, but some size is needed, attention to detail on special teams, some grit along the boards and infront of the net will take it a long way next year.

    #6062
    hawkeytalk
    Participant

    @Under Qs Mustache – you just hit the nail on the head.

    #6063
    Under Qs moustache
    Participant

    [quote quote=6055]John great write up as always… sadly you forgot how to best fix the Hawks this offseason and that would start with firing Bowman. The alternative is firing Q and I’m thinking this is what’s going to happen. He’d have another gig should he want it in a couple of hours…You could see teams lining up…Bowman yeah not so much. But its certainly been said in regard to Q – PP horrid, message growing stale – at some point you do need a new voice. How bout letting Dineen go and bringing in Adam Oates to run the PP? Personally I’d love to see Bowman ‘reassigned’ and Ron Francis running the Hawks as would others I’m sure. Sadly John McD. doesn’t get it. And as much of a f-ck up as Bowman has been here with his overpays and bad trades here comes another head scratcher for your defense which has been a trainwreck to put it mildly this season. You probably could have had both players cheaper…but alas 200k here 300k there adds up. So basically you’ve locked in the same defense for next season. Personally I think Rutta has been the better of the two not withstanding Gus’ two big shots on Saturday at Bahsten. I saw enough of Osterle in the Ducks game the other weekend where he channeled his inner Rundblad. A two way center – hmm how bout Danault…oh wait… meanwhile how many more shifts do we have to watch the wunderkind Tomas Jurco on the ice? You mention and we’ve seen it on offense the perimeter Hawks have been really making their mark this season. It’s rare when we see someone actually go to the front of the net. Shaw’s absence is really felt. Although Hayden has looked decent in the last two games and we’ve seen AA at times as well. But he’s older, slow and below at the dot. One thing that is noticeable is how easy this team is to play against there’s absolutely no pushback…and we saw it again over the weekend with DuClair and the ever innocent Brad Marchand…I’m not talking meathead hockey, but it would be nice to see this team have some grit and physicality – heck a pulse. But the stick check ballet and parade of smurf forwards continues. Let’s face this team has lost a ton of depth – Bad trades along with an aging core full of NMCs and we can see what Bowman has done starting with the Leddy trade in 14 and on from there. And we haven’t even touched on the biggest issue yet and that’s Crawford. We really don’t know his situation. And if he’ll be able to play. If he’s done…well that’s another huge hole and we’ve seen Bowman’s choice in tenders this season. Wowsa. It’s looking like a couple of really long winters coming up at the Madhouse on Madison…I’m sure they sent out renewals for season tickets already…gulp.

    [/quote]stick check ballet………………..excellent!

    #6064
    fattybeef
    Participant

    Awww man doesn’t look like my comment from earlier posted. It was rather long winded. Anyway:

    The biggest problems this team has is transitioning forward quickly, disrupting plays in the neutral zone (gap coverage) effective forechecking.

    1. Defenders are either looking for the bomb pass that is covered, waiting too long to make one decision or another and getting stripped, playing catch \ patty cake with their partner on the other side until one turns it over. They need to advance the puck quickly with shorter faster passes or drive forward with their feet. Tactical change has needed to happen here for 3 years and it has nothing to do with a lack of talent.

    2. Gap coverage in the neutral zone is horrendous. Schmaltz seems like the only guy stripping pucks in the middle of the ice. Otherwise, the defenders yield the blue line and give space while the forwards provide haphazard coverage through the neutral zone. They need to work better as a unit and break up more plays before they enter the zone so they can create odd man rushes going the other way.

    3. Forecheck as a unit is as bad as coverage in the neutral zone. They don’t effectively pressure the other team into mistakes and a lot of this ties back into number 2.

    Those aren’t difficult things and they certainly have the athletes to do 2\3 of those with some level of success. Those also fix the permitter shot issue as their best players are going to the net with speed and the opposing defenders should be disorganized and allowing space for the skilled players to do what they do.

    You want Kane, Saad and Schmaltz, backing defenders up not trying to skate through 5 guys prepared for what they know is coming. These are simple tactical changes that could easily work with the personal they have rather than pushing the Sisyphean rock up a hill.

    That being said, if you take into account Toews and Saad’s shooting % plus the garbage power play that is 25-30 goals over the course of the season which prob gets them another 6-10 wins or at least 16-20 points and puts them in a playoff spot. Even playing ‘poorly’ and even with no NHL goaltending. Kind of demonstrates how fickle the NHL is in the cap era and with the dilution of talent that Seattle is only going to make worse.

    Hopefully though they continue to get poor goaltending and shed some points so they can get another immediate injection of youth that will fill another roster spot with a high skilled player for cheap.

    #6070
    6628
    Participant

    Nice recovery by Marchand.

     

    prick

    #6075
    John Jaeckel
    Participant

    [quote quote=6064]Awww man doesn’t look like my comment from earlier posted. It was rather long winded. Anyway: The biggest problems this team has is transitioning forward quickly, disrupting plays in the neutral zone (gap coverage) effective forechecking. 1. Defenders are either looking for the bomb pass that is covered, waiting too long to make one decision or another and getting stripped, playing catch \ patty cake with their partner on the other side until one turns it over. They need to advance the puck quickly with shorter faster passes or drive forward with their feet. Tactical change has needed to happen here for 3 years and it has nothing to do with a lack of talent. 2. Gap coverage in the neutral zone is horrendous. Schmaltz seems like the only guy stripping pucks in the middle of the ice. Otherwise, the defenders yield the blue line and give space while the forwards provide haphazard coverage through the neutral zone. They need to work better as a unit and break up more plays before they enter the zone so they can create odd man rushes going the other way. 3. Forecheck as a unit is as bad as coverage in the neutral zone. They don’t effectively pressure the other team into mistakes and a lot of this ties back into number 2. Those aren’t difficult things and they certainly have the athletes to do 2\3 of those with some level of success. Those also fix the permitter shot issue as their best players are going to the net with speed and the opposing defenders should be disorganized and allowing space for the skilled players to do what they do. You want Kane, Saad and Schmaltz, backing defenders up not trying to skate through 5 guys prepared for what they know is coming. These are simple tactical changes that could easily work with the personal they have rather than pushing the Sisyphean rock up a hill. That being said, if you take into account Toews and Saad’s shooting % plus the garbage power play that is 25-30 goals over the course of the season which prob gets them another 6-10 wins or at least 16-20 points and puts them in a playoff spot. Even playing ‘poorly’ and even with no NHL goaltending. Kind of demonstrates how fickle the NHL is in the cap era and with the dilution of talent that Seattle is only going to make worse. Hopefully though they continue to get poor goaltending and shed some points so they can get another immediate injection of youth that will fill another roster spot with a high skilled player for cheap.

    [/quote]

     

    All of these are good points, especially your observations with regard to the neutral zone. All that said, I stand by what’s in the piece, which is essentially, they need to own “the house” at both ends of the ice, they need another 2-way centerman who is proficient in the dot, and the power play (as you echo) needs to get a lot better.

    It’s not either or, these are ALL relevant observations and likely all right to some degree.

    #6077
    fattybeef
    Participant

    [quote quote=6075]

    All of these are good points, especially your observations with regard to the neutral zone. All that said, I stand by what’s in the piece, which is essentially, they need to own “the house” at both ends of the ice, they need another 2-way centerman who is proficient in the dot, and the power play (as you echo) needs to get a lot better. It’s not either or, these are ALL relevant observations and likely all right to some degree.

    [/quote]

     

    I think thats where you miss a player like Bolland (even though he was poor at the dot) or even a Madden \ Handzus type. If you look at the Hawks team that won Cups – they weren’t just overwhelmingly talented, they had a group of players who could play the game as a team and flipped the ice quickly and efficiently. They were fun to watch not like the aberration that is out there now.

    I’ve been bitching about another center for a while and while it looks like they have a nice player in Kampf who can fill that 4th line spot – I think that they need another leader type on the ice. AA at this point is a nice to have but if Schmaltz is 2C then AA isn’t the guy you want pivoting the 3rd line. Banging in +20 goals this year should provide some decent return there. They need fewer dollars committed there but also a guy who is going to take an active role mentoring some of the kids on the lower lines to help them learn how to be professionals.

    Q loves Statsny from his Avs days who they may be able to snag on a 2 year relatively friendly deal. Filppula playing the 3 \ 4 pivot on a 2 year cap friendly deal would be an improvement as well. They should have the money like that and with the youth they have + previous success you have to think it is an attractive option for those guys especially if Winnipeg gets bounced early. I think most of us could live with and even get excited about Toews – Schmaltz – Statsny – Kampf

    Maybe they’re hoping for a top 3 pick so they can poach Tkachuk and that issue fixes itself. I think it is going to be tough for them to make a move with the current roster trade wise until they know where they are picking. Either way I think you sign one of the guys above, if they win the lottery and get Dahlin then they are ready to go straight away.

    Even if they could snag the more NHL ready of Bourchard or Boqvist and beef up that right side then they are probably in a good spot. With Seabrook, Murphy and Bourchard on that right side I think they would be sitting in a very good spot. Then you can put the lil fast guys on the left and go from there.

    If they pick 8-10 however and don’t make any other roster moves then next year is going to probably be more of the same.

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