Analysis: Blackhawks May Not Have The Horses

  

 

If you’re looking for a yardstick by which to measure this up and down, enigmatic Blackhawk team, it may have been the last 2 games against the Dallas Stars.

 

The Hawks started a back-to-back series with Dallas Thursday, essentially tied with the Stars. This morning, they sit 2 points behind Dallas, and just out of the wild card.

I know, it’s way too early to worry about that. Well, not completely. Having now basically been through the conference, it’s safe to say the competition is good, and the Hawks may need to get better if they hope to even make the playoffs, much less advance once there.

Playoffs? PLAYOFFS?!

Last year, 94 points was the price of entry into the Western Conference playoffs. This year, the Hawks are on pace for 93, maybe 94 points. It’s that close—and when you have a back-to-back against a team like Dallas, that is likely to be right there with you in early April, walking away with two points when they get four is, meh, not all that great.

You could point to Corey Crawford likely being injured in the first game, and replaced by “dat Forsssss-berg” in the second. But the first game was played on home ice, the Hawks were outshot 36-22, and if Crawford was hurt that bad, they could have pulled him.

In the second game, Anton Forsberg was basically outstanding, stopping all but 2 of 36 shots, and neither goal was remotely what you would call soft. The second was maybe stoppable, but it would have been an epic save. Sure, Forsberg was beaten twice in OT, prompting some of the goaltending experts on twitter to proclaim him “terrible in the shootout.” But they perhaps forget, Forsberg hasn’t played that much this year, much less in shootouts.

And if you want to see “bad in the shootout,” hearken back to the guy some of you have been pining for all year, “Lemont-native Scott Darling.”

The Dallas Yardstick

Aside from that, Dallas brings a lot of size and speed and enough skill to expose where the Hawks are soft. It’s not like the games weren’t close. Clearly they were. The Hawks came out flying last night, playing their own heavy style. The Toews line was a force much of the night, especially in the early going. And Brandon Saad did find the twine, with another near miss.

The Hawks had 34 shots to Dallas’ 35. But I would also argue Forsberg faced more Grade A chances than Ben Bishop did.

Gustav Forsling and Jan Rutta, while they had their positive moments, were playing the Keystone Kops much of the night.

Richard Panik, as much as I like him, is not a factor in the offensive zone right now. It’s hard to say why he does this disappearing act, because his 200-foot effort is always outstanding.

What’s the answer?

Yeah, you could write last night’s game off as one of those where you didn’t get the bounces, and there were bounces on the God-awful American Airlines Arena ice. But at times, you wanted Joel Quenneville to set the blender to liquefy—and yet, there really don’t seem to be any conceivable “other combinations” that produce better results.

I know what some will say. No, what they’ll shriek, hysterically:

“VINNY!”

Ehhhh, maybe. Maybe Vince Hinostroza being recalled from Rockford, with his speed and energy, adds a spark to the Hawk lineup, and suddenly the goals are pouring in to the opponent’s net, the ice is tilted in Chicago’s favor, and Bob’s your uncle. But I also feel like the hockey minds at 1901 W. Madison have held off on Hinostroza for good reason. And as noted Rockford blogger Chris Block tweeted recently (essentially), after proclaiming himself NHL ready, Hinostroza has looked like an AHL player lately.

And quite frankly, where Hinostroza seems to have value in NHL hockey is mad rushes up the ice using his speed to get wide and behind defenders in a fast, flowing game—not as a high-skill, high hockey sense forward who, for example, can make a difference on an NHL (not AHL) power play.

And the Hawks need help on their power play.

The power play. Ugh.

Dallas’ power play is at 22%, ranked 9th in the league. The difference between the two teams’ man advantage play the last two games was very telling. Dallas is purposeful and electric in how they move the puck and players to create chances. The Hawks are sloppy, too tentative and way too predictable.

You can point to coaching, but the evidence also suggests maybe the Hawks need another player or two. Dallas is a pretty good team, but likely not going to the Stanley Cup Finals either. More likely contending with the Hawks (as currently composed) for  wild card spot.

For Chicago, making the playoffs and actually get out of the first round this year is far from guaranteed. And so either through organic growth, or through a trade or two, the Hawks need to be better. It’s that simple.

I’ll have a Kings preview up later today.

 

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