Misconceptions of Stan Bowman – Part 2

  

In part one of this series, I examined the forwards that Blackhawks General Manager Stan Bowman had drafted both before he took over as GM and while on the job. The numbers showed that he was average to slightly above average at drafting and developing these players through the Blackhawks system. This is where the success stops; and a hard stop it is.

We will now take a look at the defensemen and goalies drafted during the period of 2007 through 2017.

Like with part one, I compare Stan Bowman’s relative success when drafting players, by position, to his peers in the division. The only fair and objective metric is NHL games played. It is not a perfect measure of success, but it will provide a picture of what level of player development has occurred over the last decade.

Below are the defensemen that were drafted from 2007 through 2009, with Dale Tallonofficially” at the helm, but Bowman (assistant General Manager) and Mark Kelley (Vice President of Amateur Scouting) as co-pilots:

YearRound-PosNameNHL Games (as of 2/2/18)
20075-126Joe Lavin
20083-68Shawn Lalonde1
5-132Teigan Zahn
6-162Jonathan Carlsson
6-179Braden Birch
7-192Joe Gleason
20091-28Dylan Olsen

124
7-195Paul Phillips

What does this list of players tell us? The Blackhawks drafted eight defensemen in three drafts. Two of those defensemen (25%) have played in the NHL, Dylan Olsen and Shawn Lalonde. We can debate the true success or talent of these players, but neither was anything to crow about. Quite frankly, I am surprised Lalonde got even one game of NHL ice time, and Dylan Olsen has been knocking around the ECHL this season.

That said, I want to be as objective as possible with this exercise. Relative to divisional rivals over the same period:

Minnesota was at 66%
Nashville was at 57%
Dallas was at 50%
St. Louis is at 63%

It does not take a math whiz to see that the Blackhawks were lagging behind the crowd, even before the first cup was won. Again, to be fair, these results are not totally Stan Bowman’s failure, but he certainly had his dirty hands deep in the mix.

Lets move on to the years that Bowman was the head honcho of the Blackhawks organization, 2010 through 2018:

DraftRound-PosPlayerNHL Games (as of 2/2/18)
20102-54Justin Holl2
2-60Stephen Johns124
6-180Nick Mattson
20112-36Adam Clendening86
3-70Michael Paliotta2
3-79Klas Dahlbeck154
6-169Sam Jardine
20122-48Dillon Fournier
5-149Travis Brown
20132-51Carl Dahlstrom
4-111Robin Norell
7-211Robin Press
20145-141Luc Snuggerud
5-148Andreas Soderberg
20153-91Dennis Gilbert
4-121Ryan Shea
6-181Joni Tuulola
20162-45Chad Krys
4-110Lucas Carlsson
6-173Blake Hillman
7-203Jake Ryczek
20171-29Henri Jokiharju
2-57Ian Mitchell
4-119Roope Laavainen
5-150Jakub Galvas
7-215Josh Ess

The proof is in the pudding and sticks out like a sore thumb. The Stan Bowman led drafting and development team drafted 26 defensemen, five of which have ever seen the NHL ice (19%). Klas Dahlbeck (154), Stephen Johns (124), Adam Clendening (86), Michael Paliotta (2) and Justin Holl (2). Holl just played his first NHL game, on January 31st after toiling in college and the minors since 2010. This is not a list of accomplished future Hockey Hall of Famers.

To put it bluntly, this list is terrible.

Relative to his divisional peers over the same period of time:

Minnesota was at 18%
Nashville was at 25%
Dallas was at 25%
St. Louis is at 33%

Once again, while Stan Bowman was better than his predecessor, but still falls short of the alleged accolades which have proclaimed him as a great drafter and player developer.

If fingers need to be pointed at the now aging defense that have just as many questions today as they did in game one of the season, you can point them at the empty pockets this team has failed to refill with defensive talent.

In full disclosure, they have been better as of late. Players like Chad Krys, Henri Jokiharju and Ian Mitchell have shown a lot of promise. It should not have taken them eight years to figure this formula out, though. At this rate, they will have to unload one of these kids, or worse, to get out from under some of these crippling contracts that have handcuffed this team.

That, folks, is another subject for another series, though.

Just to complete the exercise, we can take a brief look at the goalies. If there is a position that is generally “hopes and prayers” when drafting young, under developed kids, goaltender would be that position.

DraftRound-PosPlayerNHL Games (as of 2/2/18)
20072-86Josh Unice
20102-58Kent Simpson1
7-191Mac Carruth
20117-211Johan Mattsson
20127-191Brandon Whitney
7-199Matt Tomkins
20146-179Ivan Nalimov
20162-83Wouter Peeters

Bowman and the Blackhawks have drafted eight goaltenders since 2007 and one has ever seem NHL ice. Some of you may remember the name Kent Simpson for his single period of play, in relief of Antti Raanta, during the 2013-14 season.

Then again, most of you may not.

Relative to his divisional peers over the same period of time:

Minnesota was at 28% overall, but 0 for 5 2010/17
Nashville was at 42% overall, but 3 for 8 2010/17
Dallas was at 22% overall, but 2 for 7 2010/17
St. Louis was at 25% overall, but 1 for 6 2010/17

In ten years, the Blackhawks have not been able to draft and develop a single goaltender of even backup quality; for any team. The list includes, not one, but two second round draft picks. This is supposed to be the “gold standard of NHL franchises” though.

I tend to think otherwise, and I feel like we have just shown you why.

Center Ice Forums Misconceptions of Stan Bowman – Part 2

Viewing 18 posts - 1 through 18 (of 18 total)
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  • #4730
    Jeff Osborn
    Keymaster

    In part one of this series, I examined the forwards that Blackhawks General Manager Stan Bowman had drafted both before he took over as GM and while o
    [To continue reading full article, click here: Misconceptions of Stan Bowman – Part 2]

    @PuckinHostile on Twitter

    #4734
    Chico Maki
    Participant

    Let the house cleaning begin.

    Starting with Stan Bowman.

     

    #4735
    newfguy
    Participant

    Bowman not only had drafted poorly, but his contracts of Bickell, Toews, Seabrook, Kruger, Anisimov speak to his incompetence and arrogance. Losing Johns, Danault, and Teräväinen for nothing seals the deal

    #4736
    kinigitt
    Participant

    Pretty ugly.

    Free agent signings have lessened the blow, but point taken. What’s the picture look like with Snuggerud?

    #4737
    Joe
    Participant

    #BlackHawk Legend Kent Simpson played one memorable period in mop up duty giving up a couple of goals.

    There needs to be some accountability in the front office for the bad contracts handed out. The bad contracts have forced some lopsided trades to be made. The drafts have been bad, who answers for that? Behind the bench also needs to answer for the powerplay, its been below average for years. Q and his sometimes curious player decisions need an answer. I know,I know, 3 cups and all, but sometimes I wonder. The Hawks were talented enough with 4 Hall of Famers to overcome some of his stubborness,( remember Q scratching Vermette and Tuevo for a game during the 15 cup run ). Now that Hossa is all but retired, Keith is slowing down, Toews has declined and even Kane is having an average ,by his standards, year, Q doesn’t have the answers.

     

    #4740
    Ken Silverman
    Participant

    Great (and depressing) analysis.  If we take this one step further and the organization lays the blame for this mess on Stanbo (not entirely true especially on the contracts handed out) and his scouts, where does this leave Q.  Although Q can only coach what he has to work with, any GM will naturally want to bring in his own coach.  Do the Hawk make room in the front office for Q?  What about our Sr. Advisor – the elder Mr. Bowman?  This is truly a messy situation and one that calls for Rocky to step up at some point and address his fan base so as to not alienate them.

    #4742
    Jeff Osborn
    Keymaster

    thanks everyone.  These false narratives out there need to be pointed out.  I’ve had a lot of requests to do a trade/acquisition one, so I’m starting my research.  Thanks for the support, guys.

    @PuckinHostile on Twitter

    #4743
    Mister Ricochet
    Participant

    Nice work, Oz……….. Projecting goalies and then Dmen are the hardest positions to do so and the percentages of division rivals doing so proves that.

    Yes StanBow has final say but generally he calls out names recommended by the scouts that actually see these players and the bosses that oversee those scouts.    This is definitely an organIzational thing unlike handing out contacts which is all on StanBow.

    Getting Forsling in a trade and signing Oesterle, Rutta, Kempny to FA contracts were good moves by StanBow.

    Don’t understand the goalie drafting.  Seems you either use a 1st or 2nd rounder on blue chippers or collect lots of them late or as FA in hopes one will hit.  The Hawks do neither.

    #4744
    Jeff Osborn
    Keymaster

    Bowman hasn’t struck out in every move, but there are many that people have forgotten that make you scratch your head.

    @PuckinHostile on Twitter

    #4752
    Chico Maki
    Participant

    Stick a fork in this team–they’re done.  Actually, they’ve been done for quite a while.

    Anyone who believes this team can be “tweaked” next year by adding one of two guys is delusional.  This a bad team right now.  It’s loaded with older. over paid or aging guys that are probably impossible to move and other guys that either are AHL players or still too young and inexperienced to make a difference.

    let’s take a look–

    Toews–all the talk on trading Toews is probably just that–talk.  With his contract he’d be near impossible to move.  There’s no question he’s a shell of his former self. I still maintain there’s something physically wrong.

    Anisomov–Usable player. Over paid. Could be trade bait

    Hinostroza–Small, quick guy. Probably suited for minors.

    Schmaltz–having a nice year, but, smaller guy, needs gym work.  Are his stats inflated playing with Kane?

    DuClair–has some speed and potential, could be developed.

    Saad–a mystery.  Fallen off the cliff.  Still, might be moved?

    Sharp–retirement.

    Debrincat–another smurf, great shot but can be neutralized by a bigger guy. Could be used as trade bait.

    Hartman–another mystery.  Has regressed.

    Kampf–next year’s 3rd or 4th center?

    Kane–still the most dynamic player in the game.   But, he’d return a YUUGE HAUL if traded.

    Jurco–just a guy. AHL player.

    Wingels–he is what he is–a 4th line banger.

    Keith–still usable. But not a 1D anymore.  He, too would bring some nice pieces if traded.

    Seabrook–boat anchor.  With a contract that will cost Debrincat or more to trade.

    Kempny–he’s actually been pretty decent recently.  But, at best a bottom six guy.

    Murphy–meh. He’s been better from the beginning of the year, but again, on a “good team”, a  bottom 6 guy at best a #4.

    Oesterle– very good offensively, he makes me squirm in his own end.  Again, at best a #4 or #5

    Ruuta–started out the season well, since the concussion he’s been lost. Another, at best 1 #4.

    Gustafson–probably another AHL guy.

    Crawford–Who the hell knows.  Next year, he’ll be 34, with no replacement in sight.

    Forsberg–needs work. MAYBE, COULD be a back up(?)

    Glass–just a guy.

    So, who in that group would be on a Cup contending roster?  Other than Kane?  This team is loaded with bottom pairing defensmen.

    This team needs defensive help–badly.  They need a few D guys that are hard on the puck.  They need bigger wingers, they have too many smurfs, too many AHL players.

    And, I’m not at all confident Stan Bowman can fix it.

     

    #4761
    JZS
    Participant

    Stick a fork in this team–they’re done. Actually, they’ve been done for quite a while. Anyone who believes this team can be “tweaked” next year by adding one of two guys is delusional. This a bad team right now. It’s loaded with older. over paid or aging guys that are probably impossible to move and other guys that either are AHL players or still too young and inexperienced to make a difference. let’s take a look– Toews–all the talk on trading Toews is probably just that–talk. With his contract he’d be near impossible to move. There’s no question he’s a shell of his former self. I still maintain there’s something physically wrong. Anisomov–Usable player. Over paid. Could be trade bait Hinostroza–Small, quick guy. Probably suited for minors. Schmaltz–having a nice year, but, smaller guy, needs gym work. Are his stats inflated playing with Kane? DuClair–has some speed and potential, could be developed. Saad–a mystery. Fallen off the cliff. Still, might be moved? Sharp–retirement. Debrincat–another smurf, great shot but can be neutralized by a bigger guy. Could be used as trade bait. Hartman–another mystery. Has regressed. Kampf–next year’s 3rd or 4th center? Kane–still the most dynamic player in the game. But, he’d return a YUUGE HAUL if traded. Jurco–just a guy. AHL player. Wingels–he is what he is–a 4th line banger. Keith–still usable. But not a 1D anymore. He, too would bring some nice pieces if traded. Seabrook–boat anchor. With a contract that will cost Debrincat or more to trade. Kempny–he’s actually been pretty decent recently. But, at best a bottom six guy. Murphy–meh. He’s been better from the beginning of the year, but again, on a “good team”, a bottom 6 guy at best a #4. Oesterle– very good offensively, he makes me squirm in his own end. Again, at best a #4 or #5 Ruuta–started out the season well, since the concussion he’s been lost. Another, at best 1 #4. Gustafson–probably another AHL guy. Crawford–Who the hell knows. Next year, he’ll be 34, with no replacement in sight. Forsberg–needs work. MAYBE, COULD be a back up(?) Glass–just a guy. So, who in that group would be on a Cup contending roster? Other than Kane? This team is loaded with bottom pairing defensmen. This team needs defensive help–badly. They need a few D guys that are hard on the puck. They need bigger wingers, they have too many smurfs, too many AHL players. And, I’m not at all confident Stan Bowman can fix it.

     

     

     

     

    There’s no questions that Bowman has done poorly picking D-men. But I’ve got two questions:

    1. In which rounds were the Hawks picking d-men? If a lot of these guys were selected after rounds one or two, don’t their chances of making it to the NHL plummet?

    2. Doesn’t it take longer for d-men to develop than forwards? So, isn’t it possible that a number of those picks still have a chance of making it to the NHL? The Hawks just called Dahlstrom who was drafted in 2013.

    JZS

    #4766
    Seymour
    Participant

    Don’t forget that the Hawks had a solid training/prep program in Norfolk under Trent Yawney.  Sheldon Brookbank is coaching in the Rock now, and we’ll have to see how things progress.  Yawney was the one who brought along Keith/Seabrook.  The Hawks success from 08-16/17 was always back end forward with quick retrival and transition. Keith, Campbell, Leddy …. and then shot blockers/transition/2/3 players like Hjammer and Oduya.

    It remains to be seen what players like 2 & 7 have left in the tank.  The league has gotten so fast.  In my opinion, I’d like to see a few young d-pairs get put together and stuck together for the rest of the season.  Let them play and make mistakes, just like Seabrook and Keith did.  Look at the Cup teams over the past decade or so.  Lidstrom, Letang, Doughty, Chara, Keith…. The Oilers are the prime example of drafting top end blue-chip scoring forwards.  They can’t even make the playoffs.  Yes, you need players who can put the puck in the net, but the teams that separate themselves from the rest are the ones that transition extremely well.

    #4768
    Hank_Greenberg
    Participant

    thanks everyone. These false narratives out there need to be pointed out. I’ve had a lot of requests to do a trade/acquisition one, so I’m starting my research. Thanks for the support, guys.

    Great (and depressing) work, Oz. I’d hate to see where the Hawks would be without their success in mining Europe and Russia.  Not looking to make work for you, but I’d love to see an analysis of where the front office is relative to their peers on this issue ….

     

    #4769
    fattybeef
    Participant

    So AA isn’t overpaid. He’s right on par with his peers that do similar things. Like not being bad but not being great and some how managing 40 points regardless of where he is at. One of the better Bowman deals tbh at least money wise. Don’t agree with the nmc but that cash isn’t anything to complain about.

    #4770
    fattybeef
    Participant

    Also, drafting in the NHL is not easy. The Preds seem to be one of the few teams that produce tremendous defenders with any regularity. Boston hasn’t been bad either.

    Otherwise it’s no bueno across the league. With all these teams too the talent pool is diluted and the for real difference between the Hawks and the other teams is pretty miniscule.

    It’s overly frustrating because of the success they’ve had the last several years.

    They can certainly win with this group if they establish an identity and add a stable veteran or two. That’s easier said than done but with the way the league is now and another team to be added shortly, it’s going to be a teter totter between being medicore and in the hunt.

    #4771
    JZS
    Participant

    Below is a piece by TSN’s Travis Yost, which breaks down the likelihood of draft picks making it to the NHL. While 80% of first rounders play in the league, only 44% of second rounders and 30% of third rounders do. The last time the Hawks took a d-man in the first round before last year was 2009.

    Between 2010 and 2013, they waited till round two to draft defensemen, two in 2010 and one in each of the succeeding years.  In 2010, Bowman selected Justin Holl, now in the Leaf’s system, and Johns with Dallas, giving him a score of 50%, slightly better than average. He selected Clendening and Fournier in 2011 and 2012, respectively. The former turned out to be a bust. But Bowman may have recouped his losses by trading him for Forsling. Fournier had to quit hockey because of a shoulder injury. Consequently, it’s hard to know whether he’d have made it to the NHL. The Hawks just called up their 2013 second rounder, Dahlstrom. So, it’s too soon to call him a bust. Consequently, when you examine the numbers closely, the Hawks haven’t done that badly in round two. The problem is in the later rounds, where the chances of success are much slimmer. The good news, as Jeff Osborn pointed out, is that the Hawks seemed to realize the error of their ways last year.

    Here’s Travis Yost:
    So, this is reasonably what we would expect. 80% of first-round picks, 44% of second-round picks, and 30% of third-round picks will become low-level (or better) NHL players. Scott Cullen has done great work looking at specific pick values.

    The majority of those will realize something better than a few cups of coffee at the NHL level, of course.

    What’s interesting is in the later rounds, the art of hitting on a draft pick seems to be entirely random. Round five, for example, only offers a 1.6% better chance that a player ends up as replacement level or better than a player selected in round seven.

    JZS

    #4777
    Mister Ricochet
    Participant

    Below is a piece by TSN’s Travis Yost, which breaks down the likelihood of draft picks making it to the NHL. While 80% of first rounders play in the league, only 44% of second rounders and 30% of third rounders do. The last time the Hawks took a d-man in the first round before last year was 2009. Between 2010 and 2013, they waited till round two to draft defensemen, two in 2010 and one in each of the succeeding years. In 2010, Bowman selected Justin Holl, now in the Leaf’s system, and Johns with Dallas, giving him a score of 50%, slightly better than average. He selected Clendening and Fournier in 2011 and 2012, respectively. The former turned out to be a bust. But Bowman may have recouped his losses by trading him for Forsling. Fournier had to quit hockey because of a shoulder injury. Consequently, it’s hard to know whether he’d have made it to the NHL. The Hawks just called up their 2013 second rounder, Dahlstrom. So, it’s too soon to call him a bust. Consequently, when you examine the numbers closely, the Hawks haven’t done that badly in round two. The problem is in the later rounds, where the chances of success are much slimmer. The good news, as Jeff Osborn pointed out, is that the Hawks seemed to realize the error of their ways last year. Here’s Travis Yost: So, this is reasonably what we would expect. 80% of first-round picks, 44% of second-round picks, and 30% of third-round picks will become low-level (or better) NHL players. Scott Cullen has done great work looking at specific pick values. The majority of those will realize something better than a few cups of coffee at the NHL level, of course. What’s interesting is in the later rounds, the art of hitting on a draft pick seems to be entirely random. Round five, for example, only offers a 1.6% better chance that a player ends up as replacement level or better than a player selected in round seven.

    Very helpful post!!   Gives things perspective, which brings me to the next question.  Do the Hawks ALWAYS take the best player on the board or do they deviate and sometimes draft for need?  Has it been that forwards on the board were just rated higher than the Dmen often enough and is the reason for the dearth of Dmen making it to the NHL?

    #4779
    John Jaeckel
    Keymaster

    I was talking to Kris Wagner, Washington  Caps’ Director of  Hockey Ops, recently, about how only MLB and NHL draft 17 year olds. It’s much more of a crap shoot than say NFL or NBA. All that said, Hawk fans, especially those of the last decade, tend to think it’s always gonna be like 2002-2007 where there were repeated “hits” and every prospect seemed to pan out. Bear in mind, those drafts were scouted by guys named Rick Dudley, Marshall Johnston and Dale Tallon (before he was GM). My knock on Bowman, beyond a handful of questionable to bad contracts, was he traded Byfuglien, Ladd and several others for picks that were mostly total whiffs. At some point, you can’t blame this or that. It is what it is.

    Apparently, all goalies are Vikings

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