Each day over the next month leading up to the 2018 NHL Entry Draft, held on June 22 in Dallas, we will be taking a look at 31 top prospects available, starting with the 31st and leading up to number one.
To begin the series of prospect profiles, the number 31 prospect is defenseman Ryan Merkley.
Ryan Merkley
2017–18 Team: Guelph (OHL)
Date of Birth: August 14, 2000
Place of Birth: Oakville, ON
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 170 lbs
Shoots: Right
Position: D
NHL Central Scouting Final Ranking: 45
NHL Central Scouting Midterm Ranking: 21
NHL Comparable: Samuel Girard
Merkley is perhaps the most intriguing prospect of the 2018 draft class for a number of reasons. He owns elite offensive ability from the back end, as is evidenced by gaudy numbers in the OHL. The first overall pick in the 2016 OHL Draft has recorded an astounding 122 points in two seasons for Guelph, in 125 regular season games, including 67 points (13 goals, 54 assists) in 63 games this season. Merkley tallied six points (one goal, five assists) in six playoff games this season as well.
However, Merkley has two significant knocks on his draft stock: his defensive play and questions about his character.
In his time playing for the Storm, Merkley has posted an abysmal -70 plus/minus rating in two seasons with Guelph. The trend continued in this year’s playoffs, registering a -6 rating in six games. While any team could certainly benefit from an elite offensive defenseman, his glaring lack of defensive ability may scare teams away from selecting him in the first round.
Additionally, questionable character could also scare teams away from investing a high pick in Merkley. Perhaps the most obvious example of this is the three-game suspension handed down by the OHL for violently slashing an opponent earlier this season.
Where Merkley will end up is truly anyone’s guess, as it will require a team taking a chance the he will overcome his deficiencies to reap the rewards of his elite offensive talent. His skill would likely land him in the top 10 if not for the big concerns surrounding the rest of his game.
Implications for the Blackhawks
Merkley could be a target for the 27th pick in the first round (acquired from Nashville in the Ryan Hartman trade) if they deem he can grow his defensive game. His questionable character would likely be addressed by the likes of head coach Joel Quenneville, captain Jonathan Toews and alternate captains Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook were the Hawks to take a shot on the ultimate high risk, high reward player of the 2018 draft class. If the team feels they can fix his problems, Merkley could be a worthwhile risk if the organization is able to select another elite defender with the eighth pick. Merkley could also provide the Blackhawks with another high-end right-handed defensive prospect in addition to 2017 draftee Henri Jokiharju.
Timeline
Merkley needs time to develop his defensive game before having a spot on an NHL blueline. He also needs to add muscle to his frame to withstand pressure from NHL competition. I would not expect to see him wearing an NHL sweater until 2020–21 at the earliest.
Projection
If Merkley can overcome his defensive and character deficiencies, he could develop into a top-pairing defender. Or, he could become the next Anthony DeAngelo. Only time will tell.
What others are saying
“Merkley is an exceptional skater with an explosive first step acceleration, high end top gear and shifty lateral agility. Merkley sees the ice offensively very well, is an exceptional puck distributor and generates offensive transition as good as any defenseman in his draft class. The concerns with Merkley are he is undersized and struggles with physical battles against bigger stronger opposition. But the main concern is his inability to defend effectively, his reads in the defensive zone are weak, and he chases the play out of position. When he has the puck on his stick, he is an elite player, but when the other team has possession he becomes a liability.”
— Peter Harling/Dobber Prospects
“In the offensive zone is where Merkley is the most potent, as his impeccable skating abilities and creativity with the puck allows him to generate high-quality scoring chances with relative ease. Further, Merkley owns a deceptive shot which he can float on-goal with regularity — an ability which creates havoc for opposing defenders due to the number of rebounds Merkley can create for his teammates. With this being said, it should come as no surprise to learn that Merkley recorded 54 assists and 67 total points in 63 games played with the Guelph Storm this season.”
— Brett Slawson/The Hockey Writers