“McDavid blew everyone away (in interviews). Eichel was kind of a different story. He came off a lot like Joe Thornton did in his interviews. Which rubbed some people the wrong way.”
Those were the words an NHL scout shared with me before the draft a few years ago. In the above case, the interviews didn’t really matter: Connor McDavid was probably going to be the number one overall selection regardless—because of his ultimately superior talent alone.
But some teams, at least, were doing a side-by-side evaluation of McDavid and Jack Eichel. And the impressions teams get there, as well as what they hear from coaches and scouts and even teammates who have been around potential draftees, has a huge bearing on teams’ grades of the player—and where that player will ultimately be picked.
When the Hawks took Jonathan Toews third overall in 2006, plenty of fans and writers were pushing for the faster, glitzier Phil Kessel, or even then “blue chip” defense prospect Erik Johnson. But the Hawks were blown away by Toews’ intangibles (something most fans really knew little about at that point), and made arguably the right selection.
Here’s why this is so important. Most of the mock drafts you read or projections of who the Hawks will take at #8 overall are basically pulling names out of a hat, based on the mock draft or rankings of this publication or that.
Which is also why most actual drafts might adhere somewhat to the narrative of the corresponding mock drafts—but there will also be “sliders” and “risers”—and there are usually very good reasons for both. Or not.
In recent Hawk draft history, for sliders, look no further than Teuvo Teravainen (2012) and Kyle Beach (2008). Both were origjnally ranked in the top 10 or even top 5, But both fell, to 18th and 12th respectively. Why? For each, there were those backroom questions about attitude and commitment to training. Questions that proved legitimate, although Teravainen seems to have matured somewhat past those issues after being traded to Carolina as Bryan Bickell’s stick boy.
Conversely, sliders Brandon Saad (43rd overall in 2011) and Alex Debrincat (46th overall in 2016) have made teams regret not taking them much higher.
Such is the draft game.
But character ultimately matters a great deal. Only in the NHL and major league baseball are players drafted at the tender age of 17—often with at least 3-4 years of growth and conditioning and just life yet to happen before they reach the NHL.
Which is why a 7th round draft pick can turn into Pavel Datsyuk. And a 4th overall pick can become Cam Barker.
So while the would-be experts on the interwebs can point to Oliver Wahlstrom or Quinn Hughes as the Hawks’ likely pick at #8, without knowing an awful lot about the intangibles of each kid—and especially how the Hawks themselves feel about those intangibles—it’s nothing more than a wild guess, a name pulled from a hat with 11-12 other names thrown in.
The skills a player possesses at 17-18 years of age—their “youtubes” against competition their own age or even younger—can provide some, limited sense of the NHL player he might become.
But they don’t tell you, necessarily, the kind of dedication he will have to conditioning (like Duncan Keith, drafted in the late 2nd round at at 163 pounds, who worked like a beast to become a 2-time Norris Trophy winner).
Or, whether the player has the character flaws that often go with or lead to substance abuse. Or, how the player will respond when he plays his first pro games—without the concussion-minimizing reassurance of a full face mask. Etc.
What’s his family background like? Has he been entitled and enabled by bad hockey parents with more money than sense of how to raise solid kids?
I’ve been called a buzzkill and worse for daring to suggest most of the projections by bloggers of draft picks or even drafted prospects below the pro level are kind of a waste of time.
Meh. So be it. They are.
Most of them anyway.
But if your team is projected to take a guy with off the charts junior or college production, about whom nearly all coaches and scouts concur there is exceptional character and willingness to put in the work necessary to reach the pro level and excel once there, it’s a safe bet a good GM will want to grab that player.
If not, buyer beware.
More as we hear it. Comment below.
Follow @jaeckel